yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 WSW up from Charleston URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV427 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TODAY...POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT STORMFRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WVZ038>040-046-047-201730-/O.NEW.KRLX.WS.A.0001.160122T1200Z-160124T0600Z/WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEBSTER SPRINGS...BUCKHANNON...PHILIPPI...BELINGTON...MARLINTON...ELKINS427 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATESATURDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATESATURDAY NIGHT.* HAZARD...HEAVY SNOW. MAY MIX WITH SLEET FRIDAY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS EXPOSED HIGH TERRAIN.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN A FOOT.* TIMING...DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING.* MAIN IMPACT...ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This makes sense and I agree but if this is a perfect full gambit, then what is? 96 and 10 etc. I'm not saying it's not possible but it's always very unlikely no matter what models are spitting out qpf wise. This storm has a lot going for it. Just gotta hope both the waa and CCB parts maximize right over our yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Someone hacked mitch's account... My take on the 30"+ question is that it almost never happens for a reason. Especially the corridor. Maximizing big storms requires the full gambit of perfection. A large 30"+ distribution is most likely a low probability event There could be localized areas that exceed that amount but they will be small. Keep in mind that when deform banding is happening there is subsidence around the bands. The entire atmosphere can't be lifted at once. It has ripples. There are winners and losers with max totals who are relatively close together. My guess is a HoCo/MoCo death band attm. Lol Well I've always been someone who prefers 2 12" storms instead of 1 24". AA County is the absolute worst when it comes to snow removal. Get that fixed and maybe my opinion changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 One thing I remember from the Feb 5-6, 2010 storm is how mashed potato wet the first several inches of that snow was, and led to numerous tree branches and power lines down. It was like a Leyland cypress slaughter! Hopefully we have better temps this time and avoid power outages. I still see rain/snow in the point forecast for southern MD -- hoping we can get rid of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreguy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 * HAZARD...HEAVY SNOW. MAY MIX WITH SLEET FRIDAY. Little surprised to see that a consideration as far west as WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Little surprised to see that a consideration as far west as WV Typical for the Ohio River Valley.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 While we are waiting for the NAM to get around to the interesting period, it wants to give us an inch of snow this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Well I've always been someone who prefers 2 12" storms instead of 1 24". AA County is the absolute worst when it comes to snow removal. Get that fixed and maybe my opinion changes. I think you're spot on here. For most people, and that doesn't include apartment dwellers in the city, a 30" snow is more trouble than it's worth, and in some circumstances, downright dangerous. I think the insane totals will gradually pull back to something at least reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Typical for the Ohio River Valley....Yeah west of the Apps you will see elevated warm layers punch northward with ease while to the east of the mountains you can be 6 to 10C colder at a level like 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think you're spot on here. For most people, and that doesn't include apartment dwellers in the city, a 30" snow is more trouble than it's worth, and in some circumstances, downright dangerous. I think the insane totals will gradually pull back to something at least reasonable. With better sampling I expect either.. a pullback as you say, or for insanity to happen. If we see model after model of same or an increase then I would think that the insane numbers are more possible. I remember in PD2 I kept seeing increases on each model run. At some point it may have pulled back. I remember at work telling people it was going to be something special. Feb 2010 was similar.. models would not waver on amounts. Edit: POSSIBLE FOR SOME - not an area wide crazy! What Bob said seems more likely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'd wager that over the next 48 we see this thing slowly trickle north. Past cases would lead me to think that way. I'd also think the high qpf totals come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Little surprised to see that a consideration as far west as WV Warm wedge west of the apps. I had to suffer through that one many times living in swva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 While we are waiting for the NAM to get around to the interesting period, it wants to give us an inch of snow this evening. The Euro from last night gave a quarter of an inch in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Well I've always been someone who prefers 2 12" storms instead of 1 24". AA County is the absolute worst when it comes to snow removal. Get that fixed and maybe my opinion changes. I'd rather have 1 24" storm. In 2010, my neighborhood didn't see a snow plow for several days due to the back to back storms and the fact we're 3rd class citizens since my house is in a cul-de-sac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just released from the WPC That is a heck of a lot of qpf for a winter storm! Very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'd rather have 1 24" storm. In 2010, my neighborhood didn't see a snow plow for several days due to the back to back storms and the fact we're 3rd class citizens since my house is in a cul-de-sac. I start to get nervous when I think of 2 to three inches of liquid sitting on my roof! Especially the less sloped areas. I am creating a makeshift roof rake to push snow off these areas. I am a worry wart when it comes to this, but in 2010 several neighbors had sizable leaking from the snow on their bump out areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'd wager that over the next 48 we see this thing slowly trickle north. Past cases would lead me to think that way. I'd also think the high qpf totals come down. No disrespect winterwxluvr, but I definitely disagree. Might trickle north some but to expect a Qpf reduction I feel would be a bit more based on what you're hoping for than what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Too good not to post... Zoomed in 12 0z para Red that covers the area is 3" The little orange dot S of DC is 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I start to get nervous when I think of 2 to three inches of liquid sitting on my roof! Especially the less sloped areas. I am creating a makeshift roof rake to push snow off these areas. I am a worry wart when it comes to this, but in 2010 several neighbors had sizable leaking from the snow on their bump out areas. This is true, but we had two storms worth of snow on the roof which was a good bit more snow than we're slated to get this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I start to get nervous when I think of 2 to three inches of liquid sitting on my roof! Especially the less sloped areas. I am creating a makeshift roof rake to push snow off these areas. I am a worry wart when it comes to this, but in 2010 several neighbors had sizable leaking from the snow on their bump out areas. Apologies in advance for the banter in the model thread, but this is where the wind could help (limiting the load on roof). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Little surprised to see that a consideration as far west as WV where is that from? I don't see it in my HWO. Actually Blacksburg has gone that route too, my point/click says may mix with sleet for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I wouldn't bet on QPF going down in future runs. That el nino is still juiced and will help water log the storm in general, not to mention the very warm Atlantic waters. Good luck guys..hope you all get pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For reference, Baltimore's and Washington, DC's 5 biggest snowstorms: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z NAM doesn't have the closed contour of the 06z GFS as it goes through the southern MS valley, but if you look at the rest of the height contours it is basically identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This can make a grown man cry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Be prepared to get NAM'D RH field is much more impressive this run and there is much more moisture. Shes amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 where is that from? I don't see it in my HWO. It was in their winter storm watch issuance package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This can make a grown man cry: Congrats Baltimore. Sustained 1.5" an hour for 12 hours, holy smokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nam has the closed contour at 51 Precip field is EXPLODING this run way more amped to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Transfer already beginning at hr 57 on 12z NAM.... snow almost to DC using 1 km simulated reflectivity radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.