mappy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=w54 link for Cobb, will have to change the airport code to whatever works best for your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Site for Cobb data http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kiad Just change the location to KDCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 WPC prediction map. Only goes to 12z Saturday, and this is the 75% probability map. There is one more 95% which they categorize as "worst case". To cut down on hype, I'm sharing this one instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 00Z Euro keeps the 35+ mph winds mostly on the coastline. The 06Z GFS is a different story. Has sustained 35+ mph for 6+ hours from roughly central Md eastward as well as gusts to 50+. 0Z Euro had 30+ knot gusts in DC for about 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Site for Cobb data http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kiad Just change the location to KDCA This is a fun link too. KDCA for DC, etc KBWI KIAD KRIC KSBY http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is a fun link too. KDCA for DC, etc KBWI KIAD KRIC KSBY http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI thanks, i've been looking for that link. sadly doesn't have westminster in their list. KMTN is Martin State Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Can folks please post the Cobb output for DCA, where most of us live ;-) GFS 6z for kdca - http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kdca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Cobb data for MRB is ridiculous. 6Z GFS shows over 31". Goodness. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kmrb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Cobb data for MRB is ridiculous. 6Z GFS shows over 31". Goodness. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kmrb i wouldn't pay attention to the snow totals they have, as their ratios can be overdone. i use it specifically for temps and qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 WPC prediction map. Only goes to 12z Saturday, and this is the 75% probability map. There is one more 95% which they categorize as "worst case". To cut down on hype, I'm sharing this one instead. I was checking that winter weather link that they have...some good stuff in there. Even the 50th percentile map has the 12" amount bordering the Potomac River or just slightly up into MD, by 12Z on Saturday. Pretty bullish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 i wouldn't pay attention to the snow totals they have, as their ratios can be overdone. i use it specifically for temps and qpf. Good to know. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Re: the wind. DC isn't likely to get crazy high winds, but even winds gusting to 20-25 mph are going to make for rough conditions. I wouldn't be surprised if someone along the bay reported SNPL with gusts to 40mph at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Cobb for Westminter 06z NAM: 1/23 02z to 1/23 18z 1.85 qpf, all snow, with more to fall after this 06z GFS: 1/23 00z to 1/24 15z 2.58 qpf, all snow Can you do that for Winchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Re: the wind. DC isn't likely to get crazy high winds, but even winds gusting to 20-25 mph are going to make for rough conditions. I wouldn't be surprised if someone along the bay reported SNPL with gusts to 40mph at some point. It might get pretty crazy where I am at some points. I just do not want to lose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Para GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Para GFS We are going to get pummled. 3-4" qpf. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Para GFS Now it's just getting stupid ridiculous. In a good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 WBAL going with widespread 1'-2' for most of central MD and VA. 24"+ for DC/MoCo and NOVA. Edit: Taylor Trogdon @TTrogdon 14m14 minutes ago Central, southern and eastern region National Weather Service offices begin 6-hrly upper air soundings today at noon. A big event coming. 6 retweets 3 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Now it's just getting stupid ridiculous. In a good way.Idk, everything over 20" starts to cause problems our area is not prepared to deal with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Isn't it quite possible totals end up being even higher than what the snowfall maps are showing? For instance, areas ended up with well over 30 inches of snow in the February 5-6 storm but I don't recall snowfall maps showing that leading up to the event. I feel like this happens often with our big events where snowfall totals in some or even many locations end up exceeding what the models show leading up to it. It would seem very possible to me that a wide part of our area could approach 3 feet, or even higher in localized areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 last map from me before i go work for a bit. NWS local maps are starting to come into time frame. There will be wonkiness around CWA boundaries. But at least gives you an idea what offices are thinking. This is through 7pm Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What kind of snow rates are possible, 3 to 4" per hour? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Can you do that for Winchester? the airport itself isnt included, so you are between MRB and WOO MRB: NAM: through the end of the run 1.92 qpf, all snow GFS: 2.35 qpf all snow WOO: NAM: through the end of the run 2.31qpf, all snow GFS: 1.47 qpf, all snow hope that helps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Para GFS The Para is amazing. Doesn't even bother to lull, 24 hours of moderate to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just released from the WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Idk, everything over 20" starts to cause problems our area is not prepared to deal with Someone hacked mitch's account... My take on the 30"+ question is that it almost never happens for a reason. Especially the corridor. Maximizing big storms requires the full gambit of perfection. A large 30"+ distribution is most likely a low probability event There could be localized areas that exceed that amount but they will be small. Keep in mind that when deform banding is happening there is subsidence around the bands. The entire atmosphere can't be lifted at once. It has ripples. There are winners and losers with max totals who are relatively close together. My guess is a HoCo/MoCo death band attm. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I don't think it will be crazy high winds, I agree, but I think the gusts will be strong enough to verify blizzard warnings. Not sure about climo down here for storm wind, but if there were a storm to do it, this would be it. I noted in a previous thread that DCA has never reach 50 mph while it was still snowing during any of the KU-scale events. 2/5-6/10 was actually one of the windier snowstorms we've had-- frequent gusts of upper 30's mph during the height of the storm near midnight. Of course, 2/9-10/10 was windier and we had true blizzard conditions, but even that one didn't hit 50 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 My God, that QPF map from WPC is ominous. Looks like 3" plus for DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Someone hacked mitch's account... My take on the 30"+ question is that it almost never happens for a reason. Especially the corridor. Maximizing big storms requires the full gambit of perfection. A large 30"+ distribution is most likely a low probability event There could be localized areas that exceed that amount but they will be small. Keep in mind that when deform banding is happening there is subsidence around the bands. The entire atmosphere can't be lifted at once. It has ripples. There are winners and losers with max totals who are relatively close together. My guess is a HoCo/MoCo death band attm. Lol This makes sense and I agree but if this is a perfect full gambit, then what is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Speaking of high winds, some decent (~4ft) surges being forecast for the Delaware Bay and coastal NJ. Less so in the Chesapeake. http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SURGE_NewMID/SURGE_NewMID_96_HR.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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