AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The Tropical Tidbits map has us near 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Beautiful run. 0z GFS snowfall is a crowd pleaser, huge jackpot area! Makes good on the GFS's southeast bias too for bonus points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 00z GFS Cobb for Westminster 1/22 21z to 1/24 12z: 2.37 qpf, all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 06z GFS precip and snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ava on air right now with a basic snow map, 1-2 feet for all on the western shore. NOVA under the bullseye with her mentioning 2 feet plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 ABC 7 out of DC news posted this on Twitter this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So, all of that to say...? 1) precip slower to arrive 2) gfs rock solid EC variable jmho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 13-18" for DC? That's going to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 From Sterling: LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THETN VALLEY FRI NIGHT WILL TRAVERSE THE APPALACHIANS SAT AND MOVEACROSS THE SRN MID ATLC STATES SAT NIGHT. DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESEXPECTED OFF OF THE SC COAST FRI EVENING WILL MOVE TO NEAR CAPEHATTERAS BY 12Z SAT AND SLOWLY OUT TO SEA SAT BASED ON THE 00ZGEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE. STRONG COLD CONVEYOR BELT EXPECTEDTO POUND THE MID ATLC AND DELMARVA FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITHHEAVY SNOWS...STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE 00Z GFS SEEMSAN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWFSHOWING A MORE INTENSE LOW THAT MOVES WESTWARD/INLAND AND KEEPSPOUNDING THE LOCAL AREA FOR 12 HRS LONGER THROUGH SUN. THE 00ZGEFS MEAN AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECWMF HAVE A LOW FARTHER OFFSHOREBY 12Z SUN. BASED ON ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ONE TO TWOFEET OF SNOW APPEAR HIGHLY LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH ACHANCE OF TWO FEET OR MORE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREAMAINLY SOUTH OF I-66. GIVEN THAT SOME GUIDANCE HOLDS THE PRECIPUNTIL MIDDAY FRI AND NO OFFICES TO THE SOUTH ARE ISSUING A WATCHAT THIS TIME...NO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME BUT WOULDEXPECT ONE TO BE ISSUED BY MIDDAY TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's really amazing to see how this system is evolving. Models have been pretty solid and yet still show that they are trying to figure out what will happen. Miller B changing to Miller A. Has that ever happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I never really thought of this as a miller b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks awesome down there. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Definitely NAM'd on 6z and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 409 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016 VALID 12Z WED JAN 20 2016 - 12Z SAT JAN 23 2016 (snip) BY FRI... A FULL FLEDGED MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH THE CLOSED MID TO UPPER CIRCULATIONS TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHEAST... WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH MS/AL WILL WEAKEN AND A NEW COASTAL LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE CAROLINAS COAST. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES WITH THE GUIDANCE IS TIMING WITH THE NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND MOISTURE. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION... WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST BUT SHOWING TRENDS OF SPEEDING UP. EITHER WAY FROM FRI AND BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD THROUGH SAT BOTH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER... HEAVY POSSIBLY CRIPPLING SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATL REGION INCLUDING THE DC/BALT/PHIL METRO AREA AND POSSIBLY A WIDE RANGING TRANSITION ZONE OVER WRN NC/UPSTATE SC INTO SERN VA. MUSHER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 When did the 6z gfs get snow here on Friday? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 When did the 6z gfs get snow here on Friday? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk About 4pm. EMs got to be thinking about early closures Friday if not whole day given potential scale of this thing. People need time to prep. Media are right to pull the trigger on higher forecasts now - folks need to stock up and help elderly prep.. Shops going to be nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks awesome down there. Enjoy! If it lives up to near potential it will be discussed for generations as the great blizzard of 16. as you guys up there know its one thing to see 2ft plus on a snow map with 30 mph winds but another to experience it live and in person. nothing quite like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 At the limit of the usefulness of the ensembles but for what it's worth... The EPS both at the surface and at 500 are very close. I did note that when looking at the means as well as the individual members they suggested a very slight adjustment closer to the coast on the run up from its exit off the OBX/N Carolina coast. Also noted was that the clustering possibly suggested a little more of a delay with the departure of the low OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's really amazing to see how this system is evolving. Models have been pretty solid and yet still show that they are trying to figure out what will happen. Miller B changing to Miller A. Has that ever happened? "Miller B+" How does the strength/track of this clipper coming through compare to what has been modeled, and could that thing mess up the storm if it doesn't behave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What are we thinking for winds? I know it's nearly impossible to get blizzard conditions in our area according to the textbook definition but can we get close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If it lives up to near potential it will be discussed for generations as the great blizzard of 16. as you guys up there know its one thing to see 2ft plus on a snow map with 30 mph winds but another to experience it live and in person. nothing quite like it. Nothing like it. Hope you guys get nailed. I have hubs down there to worry about so it has my attention. I feel I'm right back in 2010 when I had to forecast down there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nothing like it. Hope you guys get nailed. I have hubs down there to worry about so it has my attention. I feel I'm right back in 2010 when I had to forecast down there lol. Yes i remember vividly you forecasting then. You did a great job Scott. What are your thoughts on this one?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yes i remember vividly you forecasting then. You did a great job Scott. What are your thoughts on this one?. My gut is DC and points N and W as best. I wouldn't worry about death band placements and all that kind of stuff yet, but that's my feeling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 As mentioned, SREFs, 06z NAM, and 06z GFS all look huge - great consistency. The 00z GFS Para is out and is very, very similar to the 00z GFS. Looks like DC stays in snow throughout as system slowly moves around the coast. Drops between 3-4 inches of liquid. Big, big run. Nice to see the Para continue to be on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 WPC upped the ante with the latest QPF forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Cobb for Westminter 06z NAM: 1/23 02z to 1/23 18z 1.85 qpf, all snow, with more to fall after this 06z GFS: 1/23 00z to 1/24 15z 2.58 qpf, all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What are we thinking for winds? I know it's nearly impossible to get blizzard conditions in our area according to the textbook definition but can we get close? 00Z Euro keeps the 35+ mph winds mostly on the coastline. The 06Z GFS is a different story. Has sustained 35+ mph for 6+ hours from roughly central Md eastward as well as gusts to 50+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Cobb for Westminter 06z NAM: 1/23 02z to 1/23 18z 1.85 qpf, all snow, with more to fall after this 06z GFS: 1/23 00z to 1/24 15z 2.58 qpf, all snow That should add some contours to your map:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budice2002 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Cobb for Westminter 06z NAM: 1/23 02z to 1/23 18z 1.85 qpf, all snow, with more to fall after this 06z GFS: 1/23 00z to 1/24 15z 2.58 qpf, all snow Whats the link to get Cobb outputs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Can folks please post the Cobb output for DCA, where most of us live ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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