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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #3 - No Banter


stormtracker

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In line with UKmet, GGEM....I think Euro/GGEM/Ukmet is good QPF guidance.....dont really trust NAM/GFS....I still think 0z runs tonight are important...

it looks fine overall.. no real complaints. if max liquid settled more like 2-3 rather than 3-4 we should expect that based on history.

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I don't think it matters much...There will be QPF spikes and banding on the fringes of the jackpot areas..always is...

I agree.. but just because I think it will work out doesn't mean I like seeing a run that cuts my qpf by about 40% and puts me very close to the back edge.  I'm not buying the euro just not liking it.  For the record I have a feeling once this thing really gets going later today models start to pick up on how juiced up it will be and shift the northern edge of the precip north a bit.  NOT the storm, I think the SLP track is pretty locked in, but they usually are too compact with the northern edge of best precip.  I think the good stuff makes it into the southern teir counies of PA like the Feb 5 2010 storm again.  Once north of the PA turnpike I think it will cut off fast though. 

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QPF

 

DCA 2.2

BWI 2.1

IAD 2.1

OKV 1.9

JYO 1.9

Balt City 1.9

MRB 1.5

FDK 1.7

Westminster 1.4

Wes 2.2

PHL 1.0

NYC 0.5

Mapgirl 1.8

Phineas 1.8

Wilmington 1.5

HGR 1.5

 

thanks, Matt for the update. I was going off the Westminster number (1.4) and just assumed I'd be similar. 

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We all have our roles to play.  It usually works out up here because I often average much higher ratios and get oragraphic lift assisted qpf totals.  But for those two to work I still have to get into the deform band and that back edge is getting a little closer then I would like on some of the euro runs...seems about every other one actually wants to sink south and get me close to the north edge.  I am fairly confident it wont be a problem, we all know how it usually goes, but in the back of my mind the little voice does keep saying "you know one of these times its not going to work".  There have been examples of storms where DC got 20" and up here only got a moderate snowfall...

The heavy precip depicted between 12z and 18z is really just to our south and can easily be brought 30-50 miles north next run. I don't think it will shift ant further south from here on out. I still don't see how better precip doesn't makes further into PA.

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I agree.. but just because I think it will work out doesn't mean I like seeing a run that cuts my qpf by about 40% and puts me very close to the back edge.  I'm not buying the euro just not liking it.  For the record I have a feeling once this thing really gets going later today models start to pick up on how juiced up it will be and shift the northern edge of the precip north a bit.  NOT the storm, I think the SLP track is pretty locked in, but they usually are too compact with the northern edge of best precip.  I think the good stuff makes it into the southern teir counies of PA like the Feb 5 2010 storm again.  Once north of the PA turnpike I think it will cut off fast though. 

 

Everyone knows that past history has areas near the confluence doing well.  The moisture runs into that brick wall and gets every single drop squeezed out of it and often over your house.  same deal here

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it looks fine overall.. no real complaints. if max liquid settled more like 2-3 rather than 3-4 we should expect that based on history.

 

It's almost time to start giving more weight to meso's. Not until tomorrow morning though. 

 

hr60 shows the dual low effect well. The 989 se of LI is further east than 0z run and the 991 tucked into VA beach is weaker than the 988 off the coast from last night's run. I'm not sure this run was nothing more than a wobble with that interaction. I don't think that part of the process is resolved one way or another. Last night the further west low was dominant. Now it's the other one. Complicated stuff going on in the atmosphere for sure during that part of the storm. 

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thanks, Matt for the update. I was going off the Westminster number (1.4) and just assumed I'd be similar. 

Actually there is a little bumps up east of Wesminster out by you. You are probably closer to 1.7 total. Accuweather text for Westminster is exactly 1.5. My take is that the Euro is under doing the initial precip for us through 6z saturday.

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  MONSTER HIT FOR RIC


 0  850 line  never  makes it to RIC  barely makes it to WEST POINT   VA   at 42 hrs   4am sat
NO DRY SLOT 
NO  RAIN  NO  SLEET

  

 moderate to heavy snow all day  sat into  sat evening

 

 

post-9415-0-03005300-1453401209_thumb.jp

 

 

 

post-9415-0-72543500-1453401213_thumb.jp

 

 

 

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The heavy precip depicted between 12z and 18z is really just to our south and can easily be brought 30-50 miles north next run. I don't think it will shift ant further south from here on out. I still don't see how better precip doesn't makes further into PA.

I can see an argument for either though.  In favor of it trending north at the end is that this will be really juiced up and the confluence to the north really isnt that strong.  The argument for south is that the H5 really is cutting off pretty far south and that kills the ability for the low to come all the way up, it will reach a point where its upper support to move north runs out and it will triple point and move east from there... I just think that ends up a smidge north of where the euro has it.  I could even see it trend north a little from where the GFS has it, close to the NAM perhaps...but not much further then that.  There is a limit to how far north this can get because of the h5 low cutting off so far south.

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 EVEN  if you decide to   reject   GEFS   and  EURO   and  go with  warmer nam

even the   NAM  only has   1 period  warm bubble at 800 mb  at +1.0c     ta 42 hrs  by  48 hrs  everything  is cold enough for snow 

10-15   for ric

post-9415-0-58678800-1453401281_thumb.gi

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  MONSTER HIT FOR RIC

 0  850 line  never  makes it to RIC  barely makes it to WEST POINT   VA   at 42 hrs   4am sat

NO DRY SLOT 

NO  RAIN  NO  SLEET

  

 moderate to heavy snow all day  sat into  sat evening

 

*snip*

 

Got anything in between 4AM and 7PM?  Midday would be the concern, no?

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