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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #3 - No Banter


stormtracker

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a little less precip.

 

PANIC!

Its fine if your Baltimore south.  models are really tightening things up north of there.  Nothing misses Baltimore south though but the GGEM/Euro would imply the northern MD counties get a more moderate snowfall not the 24-30" the GFS/UK/NAM would imply.  Recent climo would suggest we do ok though, but always waiting for the time when that fails

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Euro tends to reduce QPF near game time even in some of the biggies. Honestly UK and GFS have kept hiking it up, and I love the h5 depiction.

Final Call with that in mind:

DCA: 23.4"

BWI: 24.2"

IAD: 27.8"

RIC: 14.5"

FDK: 28"

I like it!

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Its fine if your Baltimore south.  models are really tightening things up north of there.  Nothing misses Baltimore south though but the GGEM/Euro would imply the northern MD counties get a more moderate snowfall not the 24-30" the GFS/UK/NAM would imply.  Recent climo would suggest we do ok though, but always waiting for the time when that fails

 

you complain every storm and always do well, so I guess stick with what works

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QPF

 

DCA 2.2

BWI 2.1

IAD 2.1

OKV 1.9

JYO 1.9

Balt City 1.9

MRB 1.5

FDK 1.7

Westminster 1.4

Wes 2.2

PHL 1.0

NYC 0.5

Mapgirl 1.8

Phineas 1.8

Wilmington 1.5

HGR 1.5

wonder if the dual low structure messed with it this run.

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lol.  Not laughing at the cut, but at you doing the typical panic when we all know you'll jackpot.    Never change.  Never change.

We all have our roles to play.  It usually works out up here because I often average much higher ratios and get oragraphic lift assisted qpf totals.  But for those two to work I still have to get into the deform band and that back edge is getting a little closer then I would like on some of the euro runs...seems about every other one actually wants to sink south and get me close to the north edge.  I am fairly confident it wont be a problem, we all know how it usually goes, but in the back of my mind the little voice does keep saying "you know one of these times its not going to work".  There have been examples of storms where DC got 20" and up here only got a moderate snowfall...

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We all have our roles to play.  It usually works out up here because I often average much higher ratios and get oragraphic lift assisted qpf totals.  But for those two to work I still have to get into the deform band and that back edge is getting a little closer then I would like on some of the euro runs...seems about every other one actually wants to sink south and get me close to the north edge.  I am fairly confident it wont be a problem, we all know how it usually goes, but in the back of my mind the little voice does keep saying "you know one of these times its not going to work".  There have been examples of storms where DC got 20" and up here only got a moderate snowfall...

 

you might not jackpot, but I think still pretty well...If you get 18" and Dulles gets 28", I guess it isnt ideal, but you cant jackpot every storm

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