yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Remember, this is only through 12z SAT... for some reason I can't get the Day 3 (12z SAT to 12z SUN) maps to come up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 48 posted above... here is hr 60... SLP moves slowly E between hrs 48 and 60 12zUKIE60hrsSLPmap1-21-16.gif It's moving like 8mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Remember, this is only through 12z SAT... for some reason I can't get the Day 3 (12z SAT to 12z SUN) maps to come up The third day has us 40% of another 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Woo Blizzard Warning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES IN THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC...AND 24 TO 30 INCHES IN THE WESTERN SUBURBS. THE CITY OF WASHINGTON DC IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND 24 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 33 hrs of Blizzard Warning.... nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Glanced for fun at GEFS... looks excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sweet guys. This is what it's all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 State of Emergency declared for Maryland now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This will be one to save Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I actually like the ranges LWX put instead of specific amounts on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1131 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 VALID JAN 21/1200 UTC THRU JAN 25/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ CYCLONE SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...TRANSFERRING TO COASTAL LOW SAT...TRACKING UP MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/CMC BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SPREAD LOOKS QUITE AGREEABLE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A SLOWING OF THE GFS TOWARD THE MEANS AND A QUICKENING OF THE ECMWF TOWARD ITS MEANS EARLY ON. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES/SPREAD INCREASE AFTER 24/00Z MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE HANDLING OF THE PIVOT/SURFACE OCCLUSION STRENGTH NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND/OR TRANSFER TOWARD THE NEW TRIPLE POINT...MOSTLY AFFECTING THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. GENERALLY THE 12Z NAM WAS A BIT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH AND TRANSFERRED TO THE COAST FASTER AND QUICKER THAN MUCH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...BRING PRECIPITATION IN FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TIGHT GRADIENT OVER S NEW ENGLAND...MAKING IT A BIT MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THE 00Z UKMET ALONG WITH THE 12Z NAM ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE (SLOWER) RETAINING THE SURFACE OCCLUSION A BIT LONGER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH RAPIDLY TRANSITIONED TO THE NEW TRIPLE POINT BY SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF THE WESTERN SOLUTION TRANSFERRING INSTEAD TOWARD THE TRIPLE POINT/NEW LOW...TRENDING TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z CMC AND MUCH LESS LIKE ITS 06Z GEFS MEAN. WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THOUGH INCLUDE THE 00Z CMC BUILDING SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE PARTICULARLY AFTER 24/00Z; CONFIDENCE OVERALL IS AVERAGE IN THIS BLEND SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 In case anyone is wondering what a "triple point" is in the above disco. This image makes it simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loshjott Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I actually like the ranges LWX put instead of specific amounts on that map. You can toggle between point and range on that map: http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LWX won't be playing catch up with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Do you guys think York and Lancaster will get Blizzard Warnings? I didn't want to ask the other central PA guys for fear of inciting a riot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Severe thunderstorm warnings down in East Texas. This thing is starting to kick into gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 In case anyone is wondering what a "triple point" is in the above disco. This image makes it simple. triplepoint.JPG good place for #wedges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Euro 4pm start for DC/Southern burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 good place for #wedges I was actually going to add in my post that if that map was a prog you would be halfway to missouri already. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Euro 4pm start for DC/Southern burbs Good stuff by 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 looks pretty similar to 0z through 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 hr 48 is pretty decent... same as what Zwyts says through 54 IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Is it just deform causing all forecasts to have DCA beating BWI on the order of 6"+? Seems kind of rare historically in these storms to have that happen... Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 54 deform band rakage ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 over around 11pm....so a 30 hour storm or so....QPF might be down a tad depending on your location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 1.8" in DC by 18Z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 .6 - 1" liquid during the 12-18z period through the corridor. DCA up to 18 by 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 looks pretty similar to 0z through 51 a little less precip. PANIC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 21" in DC at 1 p.m. using whatever the hell method EuroWx uses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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