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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #3 - No Banter


stormtracker

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No way that happens with any kind of easterly flow, IMO.  Never does.  

 

 

Don't sweat it too much...I don't see you getting dry slotted like that....Stick with the Euro...

 

Yeah, I don't think that's how it plays out either, but it's just odd for the GFS to continually show that when - for the most part - the other models haven't.  I'm just curious as to why.  Maybe it thinks the BR are the Rockies?  LOL.

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It looks like some high ratio (15:1+?) snow is possible to my untrained eye.

omega.png

Thanks for that. That period around 9z looks good for some fatties. You want to see that upward motion inside the dendrite growth zone. Would be a bit more ideal for that to be lower in the atmosphere closer to 700mb.
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I think the GFS is a bit too far east....Even though it is getting the general idea right, I would probably stick with euro/para euro for now....i don't think the NAM is in range yet to take too seriously....

 

I think the heaviest axis of snow will set up west of Baltimore down to Fauqier County

 

6z Para GFS agrees...2.5"+ for this axis

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I still can't believe the GFS for BWI

SAT 00Z 23-JAN  -2.4    -5.1    1022      75      99    0.03     553     536    SAT 06Z 23-JAN  -3.2    -2.2    1014      97      99    0.37     550     539    SAT 12Z 23-JAN  -2.6    -1.8    1006      93     100    0.66     544     539    SAT 18Z 23-JAN  -1.9    -6.0    1005      97     100    1.01     540     536    SUN 00Z 24-JAN  -1.3    -4.8    1007      91      99    0.50     540     535    SUN 06Z 24-JAN  -2.6    -2.3    1010      90      99    0.17     544     536    SUN 12Z 24-JAN  -7.1    -2.1    1014      80       4    0.02     549     538    
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Canadian came in pretty far south with the 1" QPF line bordering the mason-Dixon.

I think what all the models are now showing is that there will be a brick wall to our north. The max qpf is going to fall in  the areas when the initial thump can go no further, stalls, and then the CBB comes back at them/me/us/some lucky bastid.

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