Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #3 - No Banter


stormtracker

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

No way that happens with any kind of easterly flow, IMO.  Never does.  

 

 

Don't sweat it too much...I don't see you getting dry slotted like that....Stick with the Euro...

 

Yeah, I don't think that's how it plays out either, but it's just odd for the GFS to continually show that when - for the most part - the other models haven't.  I'm just curious as to why.  Maybe it thinks the BR are the Rockies?  LOL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It looks like some high ratio (15:1+?) snow is possible to my untrained eye.

omega.png

Thanks for that. That period around 9z looks good for some fatties. You want to see that upward motion inside the dendrite growth zone. Would be a bit more ideal for that to be lower in the atmosphere closer to 700mb.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the GFS is a bit too far east....Even though it is getting the general idea right, I would probably stick with euro/para euro for now....i don't think the NAM is in range yet to take too seriously....

 

I think the heaviest axis of snow will set up west of Baltimore down to Fauqier County

 

6z Para GFS agrees...2.5"+ for this axis

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I still can't believe the GFS for BWI

SAT 00Z 23-JAN  -2.4    -5.1    1022      75      99    0.03     553     536    SAT 06Z 23-JAN  -3.2    -2.2    1014      97      99    0.37     550     539    SAT 12Z 23-JAN  -2.6    -1.8    1006      93     100    0.66     544     539    SAT 18Z 23-JAN  -1.9    -6.0    1005      97     100    1.01     540     536    SUN 00Z 24-JAN  -1.3    -4.8    1007      91      99    0.50     540     535    SUN 06Z 24-JAN  -2.6    -2.3    1010      90      99    0.17     544     536    SUN 12Z 24-JAN  -7.1    -2.1    1014      80       4    0.02     549     538    
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Canadian came in pretty far south with the 1" QPF line bordering the mason-Dixon.

I think what all the models are now showing is that there will be a brick wall to our north. The max qpf is going to fall in  the areas when the initial thump can go no further, stalls, and then the CBB comes back at them/me/us/some lucky bastid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...