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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #3 - No Banter


stormtracker

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It's going to be awful tough to measure this one either way. 

 

Ratios will be an interesting topic the next 24 hours. It's cold at the start but WAA precip is always higher density than deform/CCB. 

 

I could see the first half of the precip being around 10:1. After that it gets interesting. 12-15:1 is definitely possible. DSGZ looks pretty prime and 700mb plots are rockin. 

 

i agree. just trying to dial back some of this unnecessary hype

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It's going to be awful tough to measure this one either way.

Ratios will be an interesting topic the next 24 hours. It's cold at the start but WAA precip is always higher density than deform/CCB.

I could see the first half of the precip being around 10:1. After that it gets interesting. 12-15:1 is definitely possible. DSGZ looks pretty prime and 700mb plots are rockin.

I think that's reasonable. Tomorrow in the deform is where we could get some fluff. Time to really look at soundings.

If someone has bufkit, I'd be interested to see snow growth info.

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It's going to be awful tough to measure this one either way. 

 

Ratios will be an interesting topic the next 24 hours. It's cold at the start but WAA precip is always higher density than deform/CCB. 

 

I could see the first half of the precip being around 10:1. After that it gets interesting. 12-15:1 is definitely possible. DSGZ looks pretty prime and 700mb plots are rockin. 

 

And with the way some people "measure", there's no telling what kind of ridiculous numbers we will see.

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I think that's reasonable. Tomorrow in the deform is where we could get some fluff. Time to really look at soundings.

If someone has bufkit, I'd be interested to see snow growth info.

 

i do not, but pivotalweather.com allows you to click and pull up soundings during the model run

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Look, we have been over this before... not a single person here can say what the ratios will be like through the entire storm. stay with 10:1 and hope for higher, don't assume it will be 12:1 the entire time. 

 

Come on... there are a ton of people viewing this thread looking for information and then there is you and fozz saying 33" for your backyards when that isn't even remotely close to be shown on the models. 

They can see the same maps we are commenting on, if they are too dumb to interpret that the IWM uses the Kuchera method and WXBell uses 10:1 it is not my fault.

 

ETA: 27" and 33" inches is remotely close btw

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They can see the same maps we are commenting on, if they are too dumb to interpret that the IWM uses the Kuchera method and WXBell uses 10:1 it is not my fault.

 

ETA: 27" and 33" inches is remotely close btw

 

But it's not dumb to use maps that knowingly use a higher ratio than what we typically see?  ok

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The GFS loves to place those dry fingers on the lee sides of the mountains.  Has done it on almost every run.  While we usually do get shadowed here in the valley, it's not usually so significant with south originating storms.  I find this a little odd that t keeps appearing.  Other models haven't seem to show this nearly as starkly.

No way that happens with any kind of easterly flow, IMO.  Never does.  

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I think that's reasonable. Tomorrow in the deform is where we could get some fluff. Time to really look at soundings.

If someone has bufkit, I'd be interested to see snow growth info.

 

Man, these are some sick 700vv panels. The period from 9z-18z on Saturday is rockin. Cantore might get hit by lightning. 12z saturday sounding @ DCA shows some instability. 

 

9z

 

post-2035-0-45041400-1453393027_thumb.jp

 

 

12z

 

post-2035-0-94785700-1453393038_thumb.jp

 

18z

 

post-2035-0-71001000-1453393044_thumb.jp

 

 

12z sounding

 

post-2035-0-74172600-1453393118_thumb.jp

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But it's not dumb to use maps that knowingly use a higher ratio than what we typically see?  ok

Every weather expert, which you and i are definitely not have said we should see higher than 10:1. Take it as you wish. No need to bicker over 5" difference like i just committed a violent crime.

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Eh, the dynamics are going to ignore a lot of traditional boundaries. Just my take.

 

I agree it will have its own imprint and identity. But we need to consider where banding will set up, and we know from experience the models won't always get that right.  I'm weighing the GFS/NAM just a little for now, and hugging the Euro/Para euro combo...but that's just me...I'll blend in all the guidance more later...

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Haven't seen discussion about the models on wind speeds.  I'm assuming they are pretty consistent too across products, but haven't seen anyone focused on it. 

 

Models are pretty consistent with gusts in 30's and 40's during daylight hours on Sat. Some 60's near and over the bay. Wes might need to weld his deck chairs to the deck. 

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