Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I never ever pat myself on the back. But will just this once. I doubted 12z euro hard. H5 and slp aren't that much different but surface is night and day. nice call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I've mostly been saving model runs like mad this evening heh. I'm already planning the 1 year remembrance thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wind gusts could approach 50 east of the bay, maybe higher at the beaches. GFS showed 70+ west of the bay lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm not going to let that Navgem ruin my night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Can we get the sustained winds/hours necessary for the B word? Sounds like it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Me too... I think 18-24" might be a good forecast for the area. 12-24 just in case, but all the guidance seems to be in agreement with the higher end. EuroWX maps have us in the 24-30" contour and Bob Chill and WxUsaF with 32". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 no words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Me too... I think 18-24" might be a good forecast for the area. 12-24 just in case, but all the guidance seems to be in agreement with the higher end. I expect NWS to go with 12-18, maybe 14-20 for here. Doesn't really matter, its going to be more than a foot with blizzard conditions. The other thing that is a distinct possibility esp east of I-95 is sleet mixing in, or even a period of all sleet. I totally expect that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This storm will be the all time biggest for our area. Just ridiculous runs tonight for everyone. Never thought i would have a situation with this kind of agreement of 3 feet of snow 3 days out. Its just crazy. That was beautiful, though I wouldn't hop on that biggest train just yet. 96 storm produced 36+ in places out here. Regardless of these model outputs, I still don't think we touch that bar. Hope we do though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That was beautiful, though I wouldn't hop on that biggest train just yet. 96 storm produced 36+ in places out here. Regardless of these model outputs, I still don't think we touch that bar. Hope we do though. I wasnt out there in 96. Was in sterling and we mixed a lot for that storm. Was here for pd2. I got 36 with that one. This one is modeled to be just as good if not better. And it is way better for dc and nova than pd2 was. They all are approching 30 inches on the models as well. This is a very unique storm as modeled. Maybe once in a lifetime for the DC region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That was beautiful, though I wouldn't hop on that biggest train just yet. 96 storm produced 36+ in places out here. Regardless of these model outputs, I still don't think we touch that bar. Hope we do though. With the consistency of the past few days...I wouldn't be surprised to see 24-36" across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Well this was a blast! Good night all. Thanks for all the fun pbp, analysis, and commentary. You guys are all awesome. Final note--can you imagine the OBS thread Friday night? THAT will be a party... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I've mostly been saving model runs like mad this evening heh. I'm already planning the 1 year remembrance thread. Let's meet up and have an anniversary party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Let's meet up and have an anniversary party. Still worried about mixing for us? I think we were pretty much all snow on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NWS DC/Baltimore has a small update! HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 105 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-201215- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR- CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY- CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER- PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD- TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE- 105 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A HIGH THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS DUE TO ROAD AND AIRPORT CLOSURES...AS WELL AS THREATS TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. PLAN AHEAD TO MINIMIZE IMPACT ON YOU AND YOUR FAMILY. A GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Still worried about mixing for us? I think we were pretty much all snow on the Euro. Yes. I still believe mixing could be an issue for I-95 and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yes. I still believe mixing could be an issue for I-95 and east.How much mixing are we talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How much mixing are we talking about? Probably very little... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lol. Even Sref has the mega band at 87 hrs on the 3z run similar to Euro. Such agreement is unprecedented. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_087_700_rh.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=700_rh&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160120+03+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Bad coastal flooding looks like it could be a serious, if underreported aspect of this storm. It won't be if many of these verbatims are on the right track. The Euro in particular may be close to an Ash Wednesday '62 or December '92 type of impact with multiple high tide cycles, very strong sustained 10 m winds and a very long duration of fetch right into the coast. Early surge projection @ Sandy Hook below is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Found a better ukmet map for you guys. Doesn't look as bad here. I would imagine the heaviest axis of precip is a little east of the Euro, but i'm sure it still plasters D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Probably very little... Storms of this magnitude and scope are very dynamic. There are aspects of such storms that simply cannot be modeled. Take a look at the surface analysis. This is progged to be a massive storm and its pulling in oceanic content that is 4 to 5 SD above normal temperature. Somebody at least closer to the water is going to have some mixing, even though the model is not showing it. It happens in 99% of significant coastal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It won't be if many of these verbatims are on the right track. The Euro in particular may be close to an Ash Wednesday '62 or December '92 type of impact with multiple high tide cycles, very strong sustained 10 m winds and a very long duration of fetch right into the coast. Early surge projection @ Sandy Hook below is ugly. That is a terrifying map. Mount holly posted may be top 5 coastal events since the 40s. We were rocked in October, then last weekend we took a beating with moderate flooding, and some beaches are now scrambling with the temporary dunes. Would be very concerned for you folks on the Delmarva and especially out of this region into the jersey shore cape may to sandy hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST......EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW TRACKING FROM THE OZARKS TO THE SOUTHERNMID-ATLANTIC......STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BYFRIDAY NIGHT...FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS WITH THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWFENSEMBLE MEANSFORECAST CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGEWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE CROSSING INTO WESTERN WAWHILE ADDITIONAL ENERGY WAS STREAMING UNDERNEATH IT MOVING THROUGHTHE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILLEVENTUALLY MERGE AND EVOLVE INTO A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LOW WHICHCROSSES THE LOWER TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT ASURFACE WAVE WILL BE LIFTING TOWARD NORTHERN AL/SOUTHERN TN WITHMANY SOLUTIONS MOVING TOWARD THE SLOWER DIRECTION. THE 00Z ECMWFTRENDED EVEN SLOWER WHICH BRINGS IT TO THE FAR WESTERN SIDE OF THESPREAD. THIS BRINGS IT CLOSER TO THE SLOWER 00Z NAM SOLUTION. THISUPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MIGRATES FROM THE LOWERTN VALLEY TO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC WHICH WILL AID IN CYCLOGENESISOFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONSARE NOTED WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC BEING ON THE FAR NORTHERN SIDE OFTHE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WHILE THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IS NOTED OFF TO THESOUTH. THE 00Z GFS HAS CONTINUED TO EXUDE MUCH BETTER RUN-TO-RUNCONTINUITY VERSUS THE ECMWF SUITE WHICH HAS BEEN MIGRATINGSOUTHWARD/SLOWER. WILL TRUST THE STABILITY OF THE 00Z GFS HERE BUTCOMBINE IT WITH THE CENTERED ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE OVERALL TREND HASBEEN SLOWER SO THIS MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONSACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 We just got NAM'd Still snowing at the end of the 06z run...looks like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 EPS looks good. Mean for DC back up to about 16". Still some members with a the sharp cut off in totals at or just below the M/D line, but lots of big hits in the DC/Bmore areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 6z NAM doesn't bring the L as far as west this run. Crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 06z GFS has a later start time like the Euro.. snow starts at 21z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 06z GFS takes us to the woodshed! Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not quite as crazy as the 00z GFS, but it still pummels us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.