MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Feels like we are just spiking the football at this point. ~2.5" qpf through 57 hours (21z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 2' by 1 p.m. Holy mother of g-d Goes from a foot at 7am to 2 ft at 1pm obscene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 30" at 7 p.m. i just fainted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS is a damn nuke. Perfect everything and not doing weird stuff with the deform That's the key, it just looks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z NAM giggles whats with the nw jog of 100 miles in 3 hrs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Feels like we are just spiking the football at this point. ~2.5" qpf through 57 hours (21z) I say spike it and run up the score! Not like we get to do this very often, so gotta celebrate it. ETA: That's just some unreal amounts...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Still ripping @ 7pm Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I am mobile - is that for up to Balt too? Yes sir it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 30" at 7 p.m. i just fainted. And it's still coming down hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS finally is nice and smooth NO ridiculous gaps and snow holes Deform has the perfect SW-NE orientation and its KILLING the WAA as it should. no other model has 850s crossing the bay. SMOKED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 For posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This is really not fathomable. Looks like 33" for both of us with more near DC. Blizzard conditions if I ever saw it. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS is much better for Harford County up to Trenton than the last 2 runs, 12-20" for that region vs 3-12" the last couple runs. NAM and GFS are stone cold assassins. Blizzard Warning will likely be up in the afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This is really not fathomable. 30"+ for pretty much all of Baltimore City/County and pushing 4 feet around DC. This has gone to just ludicrous numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 WXbell doesn't show anybody over 3" liquid. I assume IWM uses a ratio algorithm. This map is 10:1 obviously. Our climo average is around 11.5:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 or this ? 57.png it's just a convective mesolow -- you're going to start seeing them as they can be properly resolved on these high resolution scales -- and you see the same thing on the ECMWF see below, so you can probably drop this line of argument - it's just the atmosphere doing what it does best: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like 33" for both of us with more near DC. Blizzard conditions if I ever saw it. WOW meh, maybe 28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 30"+ for pretty much all of Baltimore City/County and pushing 4 feet around DC. This has gone to just ludicrous numbers. no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 no. Then I misread that map earlier, my mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 meh, maybe 28" That's at 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 no. It's going to be awful tough to measure this one either way. Ratios will be an interesting topic the next 24 hours. It's cold at the start but WAA precip is always higher density than deform/CCB. I could see the first half of the precip being around 10:1. After that it gets interesting. 12-15:1 is definitely possible. DSGZ looks pretty prime and 700mb plots are rockin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS needs to kill the WAA more and it will be perfect. Still stupidly Bringing 0c-1c 850s into the picture NE of Baltimore. by 18z that will be destroyed no way its going west of the bay. it tried doing it this run but still some stupid ens apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 no. meh, maybe 28" They must have just been interpreting the nationwide clown maps immediately before their posts; obv. different in the closer-in views. We'll see what bufkit spits out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That's at 10:1 ratios. Look, we have been over this before... not a single person here can say what the ratios will be like through the entire storm. stay with 10:1 and hope for higher, don't assume it will be 12:1 the entire time. Come on... there are a ton of people viewing this thread looking for information and then there is you and fozz saying 33" for your backyards when that isn't even remotely close to be shown on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think the GFS is a bit too far east....Even though it is getting the general idea right, I would probably stick with euro/para euro for now....i don't think the NAM is in range yet to take too seriously.... I think the heaviest axis of snow will set up west of Baltimore down to Fauqier County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 No one will know either way. 28 inches in 30 mile per hour winds = no possible measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The GFS loves to place those dry fingers on the lee sides of the mountains. Has done it on almost every run. While we usually do get shadowed here in the valley, it's not usually so significant with south originating storms. I find this a little odd that t keeps appearing. Other models haven't seem to show this nearly as starkly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 meh, maybe 28" Depends on the ratios... I expect 12:1 or so, especially since this storm is somewhat cold and will have a solid deform band over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The GFS loves to place those dry fingers on the lee sides of the mountains. Has done it on almost every run. While we usually do get shadowed here in the valley, it's not usually so significant with south originating storms. I find this a little odd that t keeps appearing. Other models haven't seem to show this nearly as starkly. Don't sweat it too much...I don't see you getting dry slotted like that....Stick with the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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