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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #3 - No Banter


stormtracker

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or this ?

 

attachicon.gif57.png

 

it's just a convective mesolow -- you're going to start seeing them as they can be properly resolved on these high resolution scales -- and you see the same thing on the ECMWF

 

see below, so you can probably drop this line of argument - it's just the atmosphere doing what it does best:

post-3368-0-41078600-1453392222_thumb.gi

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no. 

 

It's going to be awful tough to measure this one either way. 

 

Ratios will be an interesting topic the next 24 hours. It's cold at the start but WAA precip is always higher density than deform/CCB. 

 

I could see the first half of the precip being around 10:1. After that it gets interesting. 12-15:1 is definitely possible. DSGZ looks pretty prime and 700mb plots are rockin. 

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GFS needs to kill the WAA more and it will be perfect. Still stupidly Bringing 0c-1c 850s into the picture NE of Baltimore. by 18z that will be destroyed no way its going west of the bay. it tried doing it this run but still some stupid ens apparently. 

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That's at 10:1 ratios. 

 

Look, we have been over this before... not a single person here can say what the ratios will be like through the entire storm. stay with 10:1 and hope for higher, don't assume it will be 12:1 the entire time. 

 

Come on... there are a ton of people viewing this thread looking for information and then there is you and fozz saying 33" for your backyards when that isn't even remotely close to be shown on the models. 

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I think the GFS is a bit too far east....Even though it is getting the general idea right, I would probably stick with euro/para euro for now....i don't think the NAM is in range yet to take too seriously....

 

I think the heaviest axis of snow will set up west of Baltimore down to Fauqier County

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The GFS loves to place those dry fingers on the lee sides of the mountains.  Has done it on almost every run.  While we usually do get shadowed here in the valley, it's not usually so significant with south originating storms.  I find this a little odd that t keeps appearing.  Other models haven't seem to show this nearly as starkly.

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The GFS loves to place those dry fingers on the lee sides of the mountains.  Has done it on almost every run.  While we usually do get shadowed here in the valley, it's not usually so significant with south originating storms.  I find this a little odd that t keeps appearing.  Other models haven't seem to show this nearly as starkly.

 

Don't sweat it too much...I don't see you getting dry slotted like that....Stick with the Euro...

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