BTRWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looking at airtemp from 06z to 12z and temps are in the low to mid 20s, so when we get that heavy snow, expect some good ratios! Yep. This appears to be the warmest panel for D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This is probably the most worrisome temp panel on the NAM, but it is transient. USA_TMP_800mb_054.gif Good timing there for your 850s and my surface link for comparisons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Flirting with the edge can be fun. Honestly, the damage is done at that point. If we do have sleet, it would be at a lull in the precip anyway and wouldn't cut down much at all on accumulations. Poor Philly forecasters. ~6" on the GFS vs ~27" on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just curious. How accurate can the models be at this point compared to human forecast guesses? I understand the models usually overdue things, but I've never seen model after model consistency like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 30" for DC. Next. 30" for DCA 36-40" IAD 4-5' PawPaw and Harpers Ferry Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How about this for DC: NAM gives us 2.5", shave that to 2" (because, NAM), 11:1 climo ratio. 22", good for 2nd place all time. Book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 30" for DCA 36-40" IAD 4-5' PawPaw and Harpers Ferry Haha What ratios is that using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How about this for DC: NAM gives us 2.5", shave that to 2" (because, NAM), 11:1 climo ratio. 22", good for 2nd place all time. Book it Most likely scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 30" for DCA 36-40" IAD 4-5' PawPaw and Harpers Ferry Haha i take that with a big grain of salt, i,ve been here almost my whole life of 67 years and largest snowfall was 28", in any snowstorm, dating back to 1954 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What ratios is that using? Kuchera algorithm. Can be over zealous in the depiction, but even 75-80% of that is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 30" for DCA 36-40" IAD 4-5' PawPaw and Harpers Ferry Haha That is the even more mind numbing part. It is obviously the NAM so it's not happening, but that is insane to even look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 i take that with a big grain of salt, i,ve been here almost my whole life of 67 years and largest snowfall was 28", in any snowstorm, dating back to 1954 So? I've seen 32" in PDII and 32.5" in 2/6/10. 1996 had 4' out in that area of Harpers Ferry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know this has been asked before - but for ratios what level is the most important. I know that we've discussed before that it's not really the surface temps that matter the most. It's the temps in the snow growth zone right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 EZF punches into the dry slot a bit it seems and still ends up with like 21" its a really good run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That is the even more mind numbing part. It is obviously the NAM so it's not happening, but that is insane to even look at. Yeah. I'm def not buying the NAM on the QPF at all, but that H5 look was just too beautiful for words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Through 60 hours on the Nam 4KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How about this for DC: NAM gives us 2.5", shave that to 2" (because, NAM), 11:1 climo ratio. 22", good for 2nd place all time. Book it Pretty great consistency for near or just over 2" liquid. Last two or three euro runs look glorious area-wide. I'd ride the euro and look for 18-22" as the first standard deviation range for the whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Do you have a QPF for your in house WFR products? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Paw Paw in in Morgan County, 2 counties to the west. the WV bullseye on that panel is Jefferson County: HF, Bolivar, Charles Town, Rippon, Kearneysville, etc. My appologies Trix. Thanks for the clarification. I like where you sit for this one. My home is up the road in Hagerstown. The whole 81 corridor looks to get blasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How about this for DC: NAM gives us 2.5", shave that to 2" (because, NAM), 11:1 climo ratio. 22", good for 2nd place all time. Book it Knickerbocker or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 i take that with a big grain of salt, i,ve been here almost my whole life of 67 years and largest snowfall was 28", in any snowstorm, dating back to 1954 i'm a skeptic as well, but the models have been forecasting big amounts for the last 3-4 days now, so it could have merit. i was living in montgomery village during pd2 and i'm pretty confident we got close to 30 inches. it was crazy. since then i've realized how much a difference living just a little north of the city can make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Knickerbocker or bust The 12Z Saturday souding is downright orgasmic. Shows a really big elevated unstable layer. If someone in the area doesn't see thundersnow in the area, I'll hang my head in shame and will stop psoting here in summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 no need for any kind of apology. I just didn't want any roadtrippers to go there and be disappointed. I agree about the 81 corridor--this is the perfect setup for us: 12/18/09 and of course 1996. I haven't checked any soundings this morning but I am more hopeful this time that with the dynamics we might see some thundersnow--that's usually reserved for the other side of the mountains. Agreed. I'm at work but I'll be checking the soundings after I'm finished forecasting and give you the scoop. Either way, out here looks prime for a mauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12Z Saturday souding is downright orgasmic. Shows a really big elevated unstable layer. If someone in the area doesn't see thundersnow in the area, I'll hang my head in shame and will stop psoting here in summer.Have you had a chance to read the soundings for us folks near the bay? I figure if Dunkirk looks good, Annapolis should be too. We all expect pingers but wonder if some forecasts I've seen hold merit to this major mixing idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12Z Saturday souding is downright orgasmic. Shows a really big elevated unstable layer. If someone in the area doesn't see thundersnow in the area, I'll hang my head in shame and will stop psoting here in summer.Keep talking dirty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12Z Saturday souding is downright orgasmic. Shows a really big elevated unstable layer. If someone in the area doesn't see thundersnow in the area, I'll hang my head in shame and will stop psoting here in summer. LOL!! Will that term be "spell corrected" to "randytastic" too? I know this was probably mentioned in some manner but so many posts to sift through, I'll go on ahead and ask it now. The transition to the CCB/banding stage would be around late Saturday morning, correct? At least from what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Didn't see it mentioned already, but the Euro Para 0Z actually came out. 72h panel is a crush job for DC. totals are in the 24-30" range even for DC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I can't remember if anyone posted the 6z Para GFS, but again, very nice. >2.5" QPF all snow. The 1am-10am period on Saturday is just an obliteration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12Z Saturday souding is downright orgasmic. Shows a really big elevated unstable layer. If someone in the area doesn't see thundersnow in the area, I'll hang my head in shame and will stop psoting here in summer. I'd love to see Jim Cantore flipping out on camera as thundersnow rages! Wes: what kind of problems do you think the high NE winds coming off the Bay could cause for low-lying areas like North Beach and Chesapeake Beach? Luckily, my brother in Chesa Beach is not right next to the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Didn't see it mentioned already, but the Euro Para 0Z actually came out. 72h panel is a crush job for DC. totals are in the 24-30" range even for DC metro.If anything people are hedging low. Not a bad idea but could surprise some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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