BTRWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 FWIW, 06z GEFS mean absolutely crushes the region... highest snowfall is in N VA and DC... I know that we should be using/looking at the OP, but just thought I would take a peek at the ensemble mean to see where we were Thanks Yoda! If there is a storm that D.C. jackpots, this is it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 new model thread before the models really get started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Only those unfamiliar with our local area would be surprised to see sleet mixing in. Not a big deal. As alluded to by Eric Horst and Matt, I'm still a little worried about sleet mixing in...that onshore flow is off the charts.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Starting to get in range for looking at mesoscale features. Death band incoming (NW movement) @ 54h on 6z 12K NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Only those unfamiliar with our local area would be surprised to see sleet mixing in. Not a big deal.With that in mind, I think 18-24 is tol high of a forecast for Baltimore and other I-95 areas, unfortunately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LWX has sustained @ 25 mph for 12 straight hours on Saturday (for DC). Gusts to the mid-upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Best winds in beltway between 5-10am Sat? Trying to plan my jebwalk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 With that in mind, I think 18-24 is tol high of a forecast for Baltimore and other I-95 areas, unfortunately... please back up your thoughts with why you think this to be the case? otherwise, take it to banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 More snow maps, mostly just for fun, from our TerpWRF configuration runs from 00 and 06z runs overnight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 More snow maps, mostly just for fun, from our TerpWRF configuration runs from 00 and 06z runs overnight: Am I reading that wrong, or does it say 12-18 for DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 VA's gov has already declared a state of emergency. Wouldn't surprise me to see MD's gov do the same since declaring them early has become trendy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 please back up your thoughts with why you think this to be the case? otherwise, take it to banter.Apologies: I was thinking about what I've beem hearing about that flow that will be coming off the bay and causing the mixing (how much, of course, remains to be seen). Wanted to know what could possibly overcome this effect as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 With that in mind, I think 18-24 is tol high of a forecast for Baltimore and other I-95 areas, unfortunately...I guess you weren't around in 96. 6 hours of sleet and I still managed like 24" or more. Sleet is natural in the metro in big storms. I hear the blizzard of 1899 had a period of driving steet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm out to 29hrs on instantweathermaps - looks pretty similar. Maybe like a tiny hair south with the low at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Late start per the 12z NAM... Snow still not half way up through VA as of 19z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Late start per the 12z NAM... Snow still not half way up through VA as of 19z tomorrow. That's funny, I was about to say the opposite. Looks like about a 3pm start time in DC, which is a bit earlier than some of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I guess you weren't around in 96. 6 hours of sleet and I still managed like 24" or more. Sleet is natural in the metro in big storms. I hear the blizzard of 1899 had a period of driving steet.(vague memories of that one-Was only 5!) That was my second question: other big storms that had mixing. So 96' had sleet...What about 2010? (I remember the second of the twin blizzards had FRZ rain for a period) I guess part of it is kinda unpredictable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 4pm, hopefully everyone is home and ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Apologies: I was thinking about what I've beem hearing about that flow that will be coming off the bay and causing the mixing (how much, of course, remains to be seen). Wanted to know what could possibly overcome this effect as well. It's not the bay (way too small and narrow to have much impact). It's the ocean. But hp to the north is pretty strong. Midlevel winds are 5k feet up. We'll just have to see if the cyclonic flow from the storm can overcome a pretty good antecedent airmass. I personally doubt significant mixing problems until you go down to southern md. Imo- if there is mixing it will be relatively brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That's funny, I was about to say the opposite. Looks like about a 3pm start time in DC, which is a bit earlier than some of the other models. I'm looking at snowfall vs sim radar... Could be virga lead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm looking at snowfall vs sim radar... Could be virga lead? No, the NAM probably has it as rain, which it has done the last couple of runs. Probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm looking at snowfall vs sim radar... Could be virga lead? I'd look at 700rh maps Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 36 Nam is even wetter then 6z Fantastic front thump lined up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The whole storm looks a bit squashed vs the 06z NAM, which is probably good for DC, not as good for some of the PA/NJ places that scored overnight. But, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 In Richmond area I've never seen a major storm that didn't have some period of mixing. That has to be baked in the cake here, and why any huge snowfall prediction for the city should always be taken with grains of salt. Maritime layer will always work in and produce sleet in stronger storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The whole storm looks a bit squashed vs the 06z NAM, which is probably good for DC, not as good for some of the PA/NJ places that scored overnight. But, we'll see. To my eye, this is a better orientation of the precip field for us - at least in terms of giving us that good front-end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nova deathbanded at 45 h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 2' knocking on DC's door by 12z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 No, the NAM probably has it as rain, which it has done the last couple of runs. Probably wrong. Notwithstanding it is probably wrong, what's the verbatim NAM run say about amount of rain/QPF before flip and when does it flip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Good Lord that's a lot of snow DC has 20" 7 a.m. Sat morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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