ers-wxman1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Good stuff...DC definitely cold see more than 24" somewhere It looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 06z NAM is huge for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM'D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not that DC has to worry but is anyone worried about the NW trend in the 00z models tonight? I'm on eastern shore and it almost always mixes here anyway, but there was a big jump tonight NW. Hopefully just a wobble and not that pesky NW trend that occurs often leading up to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not that DC has to worry but is anyone worried about the NW trend in the 00z models tonight? I'm on eastern shore and it almost always mixes here anyway, but there was a big jump tonight NW. Hopefully just a wobble and not that pesky NW trend that occurs often leading up to the storm. That last run of Nam went NW a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LWX still onboard... (snip) . THERE IS A MILD CONCERN WITH TIMING OF ONSET. GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF HOWEVER...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS SNOW BEGINNING ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA FRIDAY MORNING MOVING NORTH AND EAST TO THE WASHINGTON DC/BALTIMORE CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON FRIDAY. (snip) MOISTURE FIELDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW 2-2.5 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS COUPLED WITH 12 TO 1 RATIOS GIVE 1.5-2 FEET ACROSSUCH OF THE AREA. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. (snip) SLEET IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND BUT COULD STRETCH AS FAR NORTH AS BALTIMORE/HARFORD COUNTIES. THIS WOULD HAMPER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA. THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SLEET IS ACROSS SOUTHERN MD AND STORM TOTALS REPRESENT THAT. (snip) THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE SNOWFALL ENDS. GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 06z GFS slows down the low off the coast and thus we are drenched in qpf for a longer duration compared to 00z. 3"+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Again, it's gonna be hard for the models to nail down where any banding will show up. I think we have seen which model has been doing that all along and why each run different locations get pummeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 6z rgem at 54 hr. ...nice band over Md.Wow. Slp way east but captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow the 6z gfs is a complete destroyer for DC/BAL, 30+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 what does that mean for everyone? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Not much except pure destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 526 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ052>057-505-506- 211830- /O.CON.KLWX.BZ.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS- CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY- NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD- SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN- 526 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES. * TIMING...HEAVY SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW... STRONGEST WINDS...AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. USE THIS ADVANCE NOTICE TO PLAN AHEAD! ADJUST TRAVEL PLANS...AND PLANNED ACTIVITIES. STOCK UP ON NECESSITIES. MAKE PLANS FOR ELDERLY FAMILY AND THOSE MOST AT RISK. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS. USE THIS TIME TO MINIMIZE IMPACT ON YOU... YOUR FAMILY...AND YOUR COMMUNITY. A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The WSWatches from LWX also have 18-24 inches of snow predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You gotta think Warnings no later than noon. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 06z run of the 13km GFS jackpots N VA/C MD with 2 to 3 feet of snow... 06z NAVGEM is a crushing hit, esp hrs 54, 60, and 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RNK issued a WSW at 3:30am http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=rnk&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 00z GFS Para a little wetter than the 00z GFS in my eyes, and a little to the SE with the colder temps. Very good for the DC area - 2/2.5 inches of liquid for the DC area and slightly more NW. Great run. The 0z Euro, 06z NAM, 06z GFS, and other model runs all support a 20+ inch event for the DC area. 06z GFS is a little SE than the 0z GFS run, and gives DC a cushion in the cutoff line (a little colder than previous run as well). 06z GFS has snow reaching DC around 4pm on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You gotta think Warnings no later than noon. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk IDK. seems like the start time keeps getting pushed later. I thought it was 24 hours from start time for warning. but perhaps the warning will remind the masses to get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just popping in to say good luck to all!! Well deserved and well overdue!!! Be safe and have fun!!! !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You gotta think Warnings no later than noon. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Perhaps... but prob with afternoon package (as in the 3pm or so update) ETA: Though HWO says warnings will be issued later this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Winter Storm Warning seems so weak compared to Blizzard Warning which sounds like total destruction. These are good times my friends. It will be tough to go back to regular weather after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 FWIW, 06z GEFS mean absolutely crushes the region... highest snowfall is in N VA and DC... I know that we should be using/looking at the OP, but just thought I would take a peek at the ensemble mean to see where we were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Again, it's gonna be hard for the models to nail down where any banding will show up. I think we have seen which model has been doing that all along and why each run different locations get pummeled I am actually impressed how the models have handled the banding so far. They have basically bullseyed nova/dc/central md for days. Not saying they are right. But they have been incredibly insistent on the heaviest snow band location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 QPF on NAM and GFS are well above 2" for us northerners, Euro was just under. Not sure how much of a difference it will make in the end, whoever gets under the deform band jackpots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 QPF on NAM and GFS are well above 2" for us northerners, Euro was just under. Not sure how much of a difference it will make in the end, whoever gets under the deform band jackpots Can't complain about 2 inches qpf up here. Ratios should be fantastic up this way. Like you said the banding is the wild card and that stands a chane to make this storm beyond epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 As alluded to by Eric Horst and Matt, I'm still a little worried about sleet mixing in...that onshore flow is off the charts. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Has anyone done a comparison between the SLP progged for this storm vs. '96, '10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 updated WFO snowfall map, only goes out to 4pm Saturday so there would be more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 QPF on NAM and GFS are well above 2" for us northerners, Euro was just under. Not sure how much of a difference it will make in the end, whoever gets under the deform band jackpots Exactly. on the order of ~2"+ liquid equivalent total overall for everyone, with deformation band snows on Saturday. I think we all share in that, but whomever gets underneath those the most...look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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