Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 40N forums arent going to be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't know what ratios EuroWx uses but they are showing 29" for DC and Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 0z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Great Euro Run, no doubt a shellacking all of the Balt/Wash corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 40N forums arent going to be happy Sharp right hand turn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NUMBERS 27 inches in Richmond actually at the Airport 31 inches Stafford / Fredericksburg 28 inches Baltimore .... 28 inches Winchester 30 inches in Charlottesville 34 inches in Harrisonburg 31 inches in Roanoke ...30 inches Lynchburg 25 inches Danville ...12 inches Emporia 24 inches in Eastern west Virginia near Elkton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ji gets 33" and WintrWxLuvme gets 3'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 its alot better than the wxbell weenie **** I don't know what ratios EuroWx uses but they are showing 29" for DC and Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sharp right hand turn? 8" up to NYC, 2" in Providence RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 its alot better than the wxbell weenie **** You think EuroWx is more accurate than WxBell?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't know what ratios EuroWx uses but they are showing 29" for DC and Baltimore. They use kuchera....good run with plenty of QPF. Historic storm on the way folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 its alot better than the wxbell weenie **** It's a higher than 10:1 ratio. Which I don't disagree with. Climo average is 11-12:1 and with this storm I don't see why it wouldn't be. Killer run overall regardless of ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 They use kuchera....good run with plenty of QPF. Historic storm on the way folks Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I actually think the is the best Euro run we've had and the QPF distribution makes the most sense. Really uniform 2"+ qpf across most of the area. And it stays all snow. We'd verify blizzard conditions with the Euro I would guess (haven't checked the winds). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's a higher than 10:1 ratio. Which I don't disagree with. Climo average is 11-12:1 and with this storm I don't see why it wouldn't be. Killer run overall regardless of ratios.Bob was checking the 850's for the run and some temps between 700 and 850 in the growth zone... Looks pretty good for some dendrites for at least a while in the backside CCB. Definitely conducive for some 14-16:1 ratios for a time with the column supportive. That plus mesoscale banding and lots of VV forcing, there will be some rates being maximized... Even in some of the lesser echoes. I'd say dendrites in the heavier stuff for some. A little increase to near -1 or 0 850's between 12z and 18z SAT around BWI, but that is surrounded by good profiles before and after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 40N forums arent going to be happyOddly while everything else trended north a bit tonight euro sunk south about 30 miles with the sharp northern edge. Won't matter at all to you but it gets it kinda close for comfort for the pa line people. We know how this usually goes though plus the euro has been bouncing around more then the gfs and ggem. It's definitely not been a rock of consistency on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LWX just added Baltimore to the 18-24" range with their latest Blizzard watch update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 40N forums arent going to be happynyc 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 0z QPF amounts for DC Euro - 2.4" NAM -2.5" GGEM - 1.9" GFS - 1.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z sat has gusts to cat 1 in OC. 40-50 in the blizzard watch area. Wes is 50+. Euro run was pretty sick for most everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Drifting really gets going with steady sustained winds of 25+ and we should have that to report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I posted this in pa forum but since it could affect the northern tier people perhaps one of the Mets in here could chime in. Ok so the mets can jump in with thoughts on this but the run looked great through 60 hours. The slp actually was tucked in nice tracking over eastern nc right over Elizabeth city. Then at 66 it's tucked in right at the mouth of the Chesapeake bay. So far perfect track to at least get the southern 1/2 of pa. Then at 66 a second low forms due east about 100 miles under a convection plume and that pulls the whole thing due east. The euro actually tracks inside the gfs and ggem to that point then slingshots east. What are the chances that's a convective feedback error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I posted this in pa forum but since it could affect the northern tier people perhaps one of the Mets in here could chime in. Ok so the mets can jump in with thoughts on this but the run looked great through 60 hours. The slp actually was tucked in nice tracking over eastern nc right over Elizabeth city. Then at 66 it's tucked in right at the mouth of the Chesapeake bay. So far perfect track to at least get the southern 1/2 of pa. Then at 66 a second low forms due east about 100 miles under a convection plume and that pulls the whole thing due east. The euro actually tracks inside the gfs and ggem to that point then slingshots east. What are the chances that's a convective feedback error? i thought it was a bit goofy of a progression... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 i thought it was a bit goofy of a progression...Yea. And it's no threat to you and even I'm fine but it really screwed things up for places like york and harrisburg. That weird secondary low sling shot thing halts the northern progress of the system about 50 miles sooner then the other 0z guidance. I kinda suspect it's an error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yea. And it's no threat to you and even I'm fine but it really screwed things up for places like york and harrisburg. That weird secondary low sling shot thing halts the northern progress of the system about 50 miles sooner then the other 0z guidance. I kinda suspect it's an error. Sometimes these big storms reform multiple times as they progress. Not saying it's right just saying that it is possible and i don't think it will be easy to predict. Here is a great read on the 1996 storm, the synoptic section goes into it really well https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/bz-mrg.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwj26aPDqrrKAhXEVD4KHTinDc4QFgglMAQ&usg=AFQjCNHGSlbVKNYl54g7ruKzar7b7esHwQ&sig2=E_vXvXRnGeA5O0kmcXc_rQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yea. And it's no threat to you and even I'm fine but it really screwed things up for places like york and harrisburg. That weird secondary low sling shot thing halts the northern progress of the system about 50 miles sooner then the other 0z guidance. I kinda suspect it's an error.Definitely suspect. I think we're fine though. Good snows meaning at least a foot or so should still make up to Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 WPC 3 day QPF issued at 06z...pretty impressive http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif?1453361211393 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 WPC 3 day QPF issued at 06z...pretty impressive http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif?1453361211393 Good stuff...DC definitely cold see more than 24" somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Another interesting part of this storm. Severe weather threat over the central gulf coast. SPC enhanced slight risk. Definitely an indicator of how dynamic a system we will be getting. Lots of energy to be transferred to the coast. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 For the record... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 103 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-503>508-VAZ052>057-505-506-211415- /O.CON.KLWX.BZ.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN- 103 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES. * TIMING...HEAVY SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW... STRONGEST WINDS...AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. USE THIS ADVANCE NOTICE TO PLAN AHEAD! ADJUST TRAVEL PLANS...AND PLANNED ACTIVITIES. STOCK UP ON NECESSITIES. MAKE PLANS FOR ELDERLY FAMILY AND THOSE MOST AT RISK. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS. USE THIS TIME TO MINIMIZE IMPACT ON YOU... YOUR FAMILY...AND YOUR COMMUNITY. (snip) MDZ013-014-016>018-211415- /O.CAN.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160121T0700Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.BZ.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/ PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT- 103 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... (snip) * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES. (snip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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