stormtracker Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well damn, Sterling went there. 18-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wasn't the canadian the classic "stemwinder" look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 00z UKIE is a absolute crushing looking at the SLP and QPF maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 00z UKIE AT 72: I like that a lot. UKIE does precip out to 72 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's got that classic 2/83, 1/96, 12/09 (and we can throw in the Knickerbocker Storm) shape. The beasts for our region have all had that "Virginia bulge" where a large chunk of the state is buried, and then the 12"+ amounts decrease in area as you head northeast. Yep. Pretty much everything about it is classic in some sense. I'm probably most worried about a dry slot. But it came awful close on Feb 5-6 so I'm not super worried. I don't really envision a scenario where we end up mixing for half the storm or something. The 500mb low is quite similar in passage to 1996 but maybe a bit SE with time in our region. Same with the 700mb low (below). You can see why the GFS is making those blobs. There's going to be some rockage in that period if it's right but I just think it's creating them wrong at the sfc. Hi rez probz. Know it's an isse we mostly never notice but it is unfortunate here whatever it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well damn, Sterling went there. 18-24 How much was forecasted in their WSW for Feb 5-6th 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I like that a lot. UKIE does precip out to 72 right? Yes, that is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That canadian is showing a real stemwinder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How much was forecasted in their WSW for Feb 5-6th 2010? I think 16-24 in the first warning package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SV really does have the clearest graphics of the paid bunch imho I use it more and more. WxBell is pretty for publication as are some others but in the end a lot of them just end up being too cluttered with all they're showing. Plus SV is fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 How much was forecasted in their WSW for Feb 5-6th 2010? I can't remember exactly, but I don't think it was 18-24. Or if it was, it was like the day of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 A list of airlines allowing free changes and delays for those traveling to, from, or through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast: Pretty much all major airports from VA to BOS, 1/22-1/24: United Southwest Virgin Alaska Delta Air Canada American (1/21 to 1/24) JetBlue (1/22 and 1/23 for Mid-Atlantic; 1/23 ONLY for New England) Spirit (1/22 and 1/23) Frontier is the only major (top 10 or so) airline without a policy out for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 00z UKIE is a absolute crushing looking at the SLP and QPF maps my guess is 1.8" imby thru 72 hrs. and it's not over at 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CMC w/ Kuchera.... def NSFW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 My reasoning: 1) you have a large low nearly stationary. Look at the isobars...it is pulling in warm air from the Caribbean, Atlantic and drawing into the region aloft. 2) the high to the north is not a true Arctic airmass and it's not that strong. 3) Crazy things happen with dynamic systems and some of which the best models in the world can't pick up on! That's fact. At some point a dry slot could punch in, mesoscale banding features that dump insane rates, warm air intrusion that's underdone. Been there and done that forecasting these things. My issue, which is an issue since I like many of you have to put out a forecast, is that for a long while know we've seen NWP spit out 20-25" across BWI-DCA east toward NAK. I too expect some mixing -- and with a stalled out low and (thus) a stagnant, maritime airmass aloft, that could be 6+ hours or mixing/sleet or just light pcpn altogether. It will be awfully hard to get >18" in that scenario. Now, if this is more like Feb 5-6 2010, with little/any mixing, then yeah more widespread 2'+ totals will be likely as they were during that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I use it more and more. WxBell is pretty for publication as are some others but in the end a lot of them just end up being too cluttered with all they're showing. Plus SV is fast. Frankly, it just looks so much easier to use a white background. It's a touch less snazzy than Wxbell, but it's easy to read when you're half awake in bed looking at a little phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I can't remember exactly, but I don't think it was 18-24. Or if it was, it was like the day of.Yes, I believe that's what it was as well (I have a vivid image of looking at that WSW and being in awe, lol) And yeah, I think that was the day of (Stormtracker--Are you a Beethoven fan?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Pretty sure CMC w/Kuchera is GOAT Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Pretty sure CMC w/Kuchera is GOAT Storm. I'm pretty sure this will be the GOAT storm when all is said and done...even with slight mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here's the Ukie Meteogram for Washington. I eyeball about 56 mm which would be ~2.2" QPF through 72, and it's not done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 UKMET looks epic too. Would be awesome if the Euro could come in like the GGEM. It's had a much smoother precip distro versus the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yep. Pretty much everything about it is classic in some sense. I'm probably most worried about a dry slot. But it came awful close on Feb 5-6 so I'm not super worried. I don't really envision a scenario where we end up mixing for half the storm or something. The 500mb low is quite similar in passage to 1996 but maybe a bit SE with time in our region. Same with the 700mb low (below). You can see why the GFS is making those blobs. There's going to be some rockage in that period if it's right but I just think it's creating them wrong at the sfc. Hi rez probz. Know it's an isse we mostly never notice but it is unfortunate here whatever it is. Wow. Great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 90% OF the time the ukmet gives off a clue what the euro will do UKMET looks epic too. Would be awesome if the Euro could come in like the GGEM. It's had a much smoother precip distro versus the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 YEAH 12 inches in PIT un huh sure last model that was the 12z Monday op euro CMC w/ Kuchera.... def NSFW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 A list of airlines allowing free changes and delays for those traveling to, from, or through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast: Pretty much all major airports from VA to BOS, 1/22-1/24: United Southwest Virgin Alaska Delta Air Canada American (1/21 to 1/24) JetBlue (1/22 and 1/23 for Mid-Atlantic; 1/23 ONLY for New England) Spirit (1/22 and 1/23) Frontier is the only major (top 10 or so) airline without a policy out for this. If you are adding NE, add RDU, RIC, CLT to your list, etc. SVA and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 A list of airlines allowing free changes and delays for those traveling to, from, or through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast: ...... Frontier is the only major (top 10 or so) airline without a policy out for this. I learned that the hard way. Frontier sucks and will leave you without many options, even when weather is the cause. Avoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 UKMET looks epic too. Would be awesome if the Euro could come in like the GGEM. It's had a much smoother precip distro versus the GFS. are you still paying attention to the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here's the Ukie Meteogram for Washington. I eyeball about 56 mm which would be ~2.2" QPF through 72, and it's not done yet. cool...thanks...looks like about 2.1" ETA - just saw your comment, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 0Z GEFS ( regular resolution) SNOW MAP TO 96 HRS 20-25 from DC TO CHO TO LYH TO ROA RIC 15-16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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