Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 There will be mixing for a time,yes. Agreed. Regardless of what NWP is putting out, there's a lot of history to go off of east of the fall line. Mixing happens with the big ones. The stalled storms are slow. Mid level flow screaming in is enough to punch into the antecedent airmass more often then not. I'm west of the fall line and still expect some pings. It's a fact of life here and I'm totally good with it. There are cases like 09-10 where mixing is a non issue. Could be the case here as well. But if we mix we mix. Easy to deal with once the CCB destruction takes over unlike Feb 14 where everything was disjointed. This setup is completely jointed if that makes sense. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 There will be mixing for a time,yes. GFS still not mixing DCA tho. I'd prob go 50/50. Certainly wouldn't lean strongly that DCA will mix. Models account for the warmth and what not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 By mixing are you guys thinking rain or just some pingers? Because seeing some sleet along the corridor at the height of the storm shouldn't be shocking to anyone. Also not a big deal. Not worth discussing, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think we are too early to get the mixing line figured out. We all know the obvious.. Big storms usually find a way to mix along and east of 95... It is typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ugh I agreed with DCAlexandria. and yes the Canadian is nsfw.. good ole canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CMC at 99 hrs ETA: Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm not talking about the actual storm... I'm talking about the 00z GFS in regards to its mixing. There was no mixing on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS still not mixing DCA tho. I'd prob go 50/50. Certainly wouldn't lean strongly that DCA will mix. Models account for the warmth and what not. I stand with Ian. As I said 50/50 seems right. To say one can predict the exact placement (I-95) of the sleet within a few miles range and more than 48 hours out seems silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sorry, just to be clear, did that 00z GFS run simulate mixing for the cities? I understand that you are in favor of mixing in the actual storm for DC and Baltimore, but I was specifically asking about that single run. My reasoning: 1) you have a large low nearly stationary. Look at the isobars...it is pulling in warm air from the Caribbean, Atlantic and drawing into the region aloft. 2) the high to the north is not a true Arctic airmass and it's not that strong. 3) Crazy things happen with dynamic systems and some of which the best models in the world can't pick up on! That's fact. At some point a dry slot could punch in, mesoscale banding features that dump insane rates, warm air intrusion that's underdone. Been there and done that forecasting these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 There was no mixing on the GFS Thank you, that was all that I was looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If any of you are going to be sober enough by the time were 36 hours into this storm to discern 22 inches vs 30 or if we got some pingers along the way, you're not doing it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GGEM Total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well now I have several well respected red tags and contributors disagreeing with each other about mixing. What I was just asking was if the 00z GFS mixed for the cities because I had heard conflicting things about it. Forget the model run. Gfs/euro/cmc...it doesn't matter. Mixing is a risk. Models can show no mixing and some folks unexpectedly mix and vice versa. Storms like this live and breath in real time. 100% accuracy is impossible for NWP. When the storm is live just keep an eye on correlation coefficient scans with radar and worry about it then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ugh I agreed with DCAlexandria. and yes the Canadian is nsfw.. good ole canada It's got that classic 2/83, 1/96, 12/09 (and we can throw in the Knickerbocker Storm) shape. The beasts for our region have all had that "Virginia bulge" where a large chunk of the state is buried, and then the 12"+ amounts decrease in area as you head northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Agreed. Regardless of what NWP is putting out, there's a lot of history to go off of east of the fall line. Mixing happens with the big ones. The stalled storms are slow. Mid level flow screaming in is enough to punch into the antecedent airmass more often then not. I'm west of the fall line and still expect some pings. It's a fact of life here and I'm totally good with it. There are cases like 09-10 where mixing is a non issue. Could be the case here as well. But if we mix we mix. Easy to deal with once the CCB destruction takes over unlike Feb 14 where everything was disjointed. This setup is completely jointed if that makes sense. Lol Good points Bob. This explains it well. We all eat all snow, including myself but we have to be realistic. Analysis is analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 100% accuracy is impossible for NWP. I think that was me and Ian's point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 One thing to take away from this evenings runs so far is the expansion of precip shield on the northern side. It has expanded considerably on all of the models. Bringing a lot more people into the game. ANd it seems like we see that with every one of these big storms as we approach start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SV really does have the clearest graphics of the paid bunch imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 1 more Canadian map http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016012100&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=524 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Forget the model run. Gfs/euro/cmc...it doesn't matter. Mixing is a risk. Models can show no mixing and some folks unexpectedly mix and vice versa. Storms like this live and breath in real time. 100% accuracy is impossible for NWP. When the storm is live just keep an eye on correlation coefficient scans with radar and worry about it then Agreed. I even get pingers sometimes out here with the big ones. I grew up in Sterling. Just a couple of miles from IAD and we ALWAYS mixed with the big storms. Its just part of the deal in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1132 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016 DCZ001-MDZ503>506-VAZ052>057-506-211245- /O.CAN.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160121T0500Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.BZ.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-EASTERN LOUDOUN- 1132 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES. * TIMING...HEAVY SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW... STRONGEST WINDS...AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...AND THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. USE THIS ADVANCE NOTICE TO PLAN AHEAD! ADJUST TRAVEL PLANS...AND PLANNED ACTIVITIES. STOCK UP ON NECESSITIES. MAKE PLANS FOR ELDERLY FAMILY AND THOSE MOST AT RISK. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS. USE THIS TIME TO MINIMIZE IMPACT ON YOU... YOUR FAMILY...AND YOUR COMMUNITY. A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SV really does have the clearest graphics of the paid bunch imho Awesome pivot on the animation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 By mixing are you guys thinking rain or just some pingers? Because seeing some sleet along the corridor at the height of the storm shouldn't be shocking to anyone. Also not a big deal. Not worth discussing, really. agreed, we're veterans of sleet here. it's par for the course. not having sleet for a period of time is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GGEM is out on meteocentre now for those that hated the B and W maps of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 00z UKIE AT 60: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 sorry but not the cmc has 2 surface Lows of equal pressure very much the 0Z NAM not sure the last time the CMC NAM combo was ever a wining combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 00z UKIE AT 72: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Agreed. I even get pingers sometimes out here with the big ones. I grew up in Sterling. Just a couple of miles from IAD and we ALWAYS mixed with the big storms. Its just part of the deal in this area. One problem with the massive array of models available to everyone is it takes away from the human factor. I used to be as guilty as the next guy with marrying a model like it's a non-fiction story. Doesn't work like that. You have to rationally consider what you are seeing in pixel land and how it translates to reality. It's a tough leap of faith to think your brain has a different idea than the incredible complex and amazing models. I'm getting to the point with winter storms where I can actually put my brain first before verbatim output. Took me 10 years. Lol. But that's all I got. Ian is great not only with winter stuff but severe as well. I respect that dude quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.