Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 FTFYAlso likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreguy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Tony Pann reports that RPM shows much more mixing for Baltimore on Saturday. I just don't get him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Bob and Ian are right. This run was a synoptic marvel. Forget QPF placement. This would absolutely destroy everyone in CMD on west down to DC and NoVa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Tony Pann reports that RPM shows much more mixing for Baltimore on Saturday. I just don't get him Just WHY does WBAL use the RPM year after year? I legitimately don't understand it, because it's a laughably bad model even 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS was 2.5-3.0 qpf for all of western,central and ne MD and more for most of Central and northern VA. Nice run Still a little blotchy with precip But this run is the nicest run for the deform band yet. GFS is dragging the 850S west unlike any other model for some reason also. Other then that its getting better and better. 500mb was perf temps never crack the upper 20s NW of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Because the new GFS is slightly left of the 12 and 18Z MSLP tracks (and slower), it brings the 850mb 0C line into southern MD between 12-18Z Sat. This is probably why we see such a sharper gradient east-southeast of I-95 compared to the last few runs. This is more realistic of a bombing nearly stationary system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 People are thinking too hard. The 500mb passage is still awesome. QPF is kinda BS on models anyway. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the QPF offshore won't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Tony Pann reports that RPM shows much more mixing for Baltimore on Saturday. I just don't get him Most of his viewers hate snow in general and really hate the idea of two feet of snow. So he is pandering to their hope this whole thing will turn into drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GEM is N and W from 12Z Absolute destroyer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The Canadian is a crushing. Thanks Yoda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Because the new GFS is slightly left of the 12 and 18Z MSLP tracks (and slower), it brings the 850mb 0C line into southern MD between 12-18Z Sat. This is probably why we see such a sharper gradient east-southeast of I-95 compared to the last few runs. Still shows close to 20" for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 63 OH MY !!!!! PEOPLE GGEM JUST DESTROYED western shore of MD is ALL BLUES 66 MASSIVE deform band over NE-North central MD ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS was 2.5-3.0 qpf for all of western,central and ne MD and more for most of Central and northern VA. Nice run Still a little blotchy with precip But this run is the nicest run for the deform band yet. GFS is dragging the 850S west unlike any other model for some reason also. Other then that its getting better and better. 500mb was perf temps never crack the upper 20s NW of 95 Large and slow moving system pulling warm air from hundreds of miles of Atlantic. Water is warmer than normal. It's a definite concern to cut totals back after the front end stuff. Along and east of 95 mix with sleet, maybe rain at least for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The Canadian is a crushing. Thanks Yoda! easy over 2" qpf for NVA & C MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GEM is NOTHING like the GFS with warm air advection. 0C near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Along 95 mix? Because a somebody on this board ridiculed somebody for saying Washington and Baltimore mixed on that run. There will be mixing for a time,yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GEM is NOTHING like the GFS with warm air advection. 0C near the coast GEM is COLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GEM looks like a textbook rendition of a classic nor'easter snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Bob and Ian are right. This run was a synoptic marvel. Forget QPF placement. This would absolutely destroy everyone in CMD on west down to DC and NoVa. The 500mb low track particularly from the Carolinas onward has been insanely the same from run to run for a while now. I mean maybe they should just dump QPF entirely so we can just sit back in awe of the rest. I know the big ones are sniffed out early but this stretch will leave me feeling a lot better about NWP overall than going in. Other than the hardest parts like timing and the edge and the mix line and such the main part of the storm keeps being about the same. GFS has been steady as a rock. It's honestly getting a bit boring waiting at this point (now it will rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Cmon man you can not be 100% sure of that, maybe 50/50 at best for DC proper. If I wasn't sure I wouldn't say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm not talking about the actual storm... I'm talking about the 00z GFS in regards to its mixing. Mixing where? Carvert County? or Arlington? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 easy over 2" qpf for NVA & C MD It's an absolute gorgeous run. Idk about you Mitch, but I think 2' on the western shores is gonna be more common than not. Just the synoptic setup alone screams a crippling of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If I wasn't sure I wouldn't say it. Sorry, just to be clear, did that 00z GFS run simulate mixing for the cities? I understand that you are in favor of mixing in the actual storm for DC and Baltimore, but I was specifically asking about that single run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Cmon man you can not be 100% sure of that, maybe 50/50 at best for DC proper. He is saying you can't pretend that a long duration fetch from off of the anomalously warm Atlantic isn't going to induce some mixing perhaps to the I-95 corridor for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Mixing where? Carvert County? or Arlington? Along I-95 and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Along I-95 and east. 20 miles east or west of 95 makes a massive difference for DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 20 miles east or west of 95 makes a massive difference for DC proper. I'm not asking for mby, I'm asking for the cities and east. I was just asking about the 00z GFS, because I had heard people say that it was all snow for DC, but then erx-wxman said it showed mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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