stormtracker Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS looks like the NAM. not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 and before anybody asks, dca and just east is still snow. Skew T is fine A BIG LOL Masco begs to differ.......https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/690018273874808832 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The guidance (other than the wobbles and a couple off runs) has been incredible. Really big win for most of the NWP on this. I'm out to 69 hours on instantweathermaps - beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 A BIG LOL Masco begs to differ.......https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/690018273874808832 geez how does that guy stay employed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Cold mauling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Cold mauling Not trying to be a debbie here, but its 1" less QPF then 18z for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Cold mauling Just liked your response to masco Randy, its Cold, not really sure what he is looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Definition of a HECS. It a big hit up the eastern seaboard as well. Just about everybody gets in on the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 OK run. I keep getting into a relative precip hole which is annoying but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not trying to be a debbie here, but its 1" less QPF then 18z for DC. Yeah, instead of 30", DC will get like 20". Storm cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah, instead of 30", DC will get like 20". Storm cancel? I see 24-27" on IWM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Definition of a HECS. It a big hit up the eastern seaboard as well. Just about everybody gets in on the fun. Easy to say from Winchester with 3 feet progged on the model..This definitely not a HECS to the east and northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 HSE is Frisco, NC on the OBX? Yes, Hatteras basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 OK run. I keep getting into a relative precip hole which is annoying but whatever. A little crazy how it goes from 2' at my house to maybe 14" at yours. It never ends up like that, so don't sweat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 People are thinking too hard. The 500mb passage is still awesome. QPF is kinda BS on models anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I believe this is what Matt was talking about this morning after the 12z gfs run. This is a more uniform band as opposed to those blotchy bullseye precip circles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Gfs keeps doing the subsidence thing behind precip maxes over the ocean. Could be right but consistently looks suspect to me. Run was right within the envelope synoptic wise. No big shift at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not trying to be a debbie here, but its 1" less QPF then 18z for DC. It's not unexpected that the models will waffle on placement of heaviest amounts. We don't know exactly where the heaviest band will set up.We know the general idea....front end thump, deform and that will dump in area TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not trying to be a debbie here, but its 1" less QPF then 18z for DC. There's a funky dry slot that probably won't verify at hr 63/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 People are thinking too hard. The 500mb passage is still awesome. QPF is kinda BS on models anyway. QPF queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Warm nose instrusion goes farther west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think there is a glitch this run. If you look at tropical tidbits, and you look at the precip type, it is weird how the darker shades of blue never really advance north of Fredericksburg. Also, there is another frame where the heavy snow makes a C shape around immediate metro which I find odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 People are thinking too hard. The 500mb passage is still awesome. QPF is kinda BS on models anyway. For sure. It was mentioned earlier today that QPF is the worst part of the model output in terms of accuracy. The jackpot zones will bounce around a bit. They'll probably be where they usually setup and that shouldn't really surprise any of us. H5 looks great. It's a big time storm...won't be a HECS in every backyard or mind. Could just as easily be massive again at 6z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 A BIG LOL Masco begs to differ.......https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/690018273874808832 Once again, the TV talking head isn't a degreed Met and can't spell bombogenesis correctly. Just ignore him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Because the new GFS is slightly left of the 12 and 18Z MSLP tracks (and slower), it brings the 850mb 0C line into southern MD between 12-18Z Sat. This is probably why we see such a sharper gradient east-southeast of I-95 compared to the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 just CVA? Not just CVA... Richmond does get 3 feet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's a pretty long thread so it's possible someone else already mentioned this, but the 0Z NAM soundings at hour 60 look really good for Washington D.C. There is strong lift through the DGZ (classic bufkit cross-hair signature) with about 100 j/kg of elevated CAPE to keep things interesting. I'm not willing to call it an ideal thundersnow sounding, but it's getting close. Something to watch for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Topper cutting back totals on the eastern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Early peek at the 00z GGEM... hr 48: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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