MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We are grappling with historic vs kind of historic, while those to our north are dealing with little vs a massive storm. Would not want to be forecasting for Philly/NYC. One vote against this solution is the GFS ensembles which had so many members with a rapid drop off north of the M/D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM wants to put some of us at 66hrs in the dry slot http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=066ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_066_700_rh_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160121+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model that's exactly why i'm not too thrilled with this run. it's still only wednesday, so i think we need to be careful what we wish for lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Still got a HUGE run. It is close to 30" in my hood on the IW maps. Yes, but a precip hole lurks nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yes, but a precip hole lurks nearby. True. But it is the NAM. If the GFS or Euro show this i would be a bit more concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam does this with every single big miller A leading in. While the distribution looks similar to what we expect, I don't think jumping on a fairly big shift from global guidance is the smart play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam does this with every single big miller A leading in. While the distribution looks similar to what we expect, I don't think jumping on a fairly big shift from global guidance is the smart play. You are wasting your breath. "Concerned" "worried" "don't like". From a model that gives the region 18 to 30" of snow. You might as well go talk to a brick wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I like this map too from the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam does this with every single big miller A leading in. While the distribution looks similar to what we expect, I don't think jumping on a fairly big shift from global guidance is the smart play. I'm liking the 500 mb evolution. The 500 mb low camps out off Ocean City for a long while. Now that I think about it, that could be the exact reason for a dry slot for people in a slight screw zone, we'd really like the 500 mb low to camp out around the northern Chincoteague area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You are wasting your breath. "Concerned" "worried" "don't like". From a model that gives the region 18 to 30" of snow. You might as well go talk to a brick wall. Anyone who isn't used to this type of NAM run 48 hours in advance will learn a lesson way more often then not. Those who are used to it and throw up flags will never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I like this map too from the NAM Thats at 10-1 too. That would be close to 40 inches out here. Gotta love the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm liking the 500 mb evolution. The 500 mb low camps out off Ocean City for a long while. Now that I think about it, that could be the exact reason for a dry slot for people in a slight screw zone, we'd really like the 500 mb low to camp out around the northern Chincoteague area. I think it's more because the NAM depicts a very broad 5H Low instead of the tight , little sucker most of the other models have. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=066ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_066_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160121+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I like this map too from the NAM Parts of PA went from 6 inches to 20 inches in one run. What a move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You are wasting your breath. "Concerned" "worried" "don't like". From a model that gives the region 18 to 30" of snow. You might as well go talk to a brick wall. Agreed... anything over 12 inches is a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM solution would be good for everybody, because if PHL and NYC get in on it the NESIS rating will increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Parts of PA went from 6 inches to 20 inches in one run. What a move. A move that will likely disappear in 45 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why does the NAM snowdepth only show 15-18" for DC while it gives DC 2.6" of precipitation? Are ratios really that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 A move that will likely disappear in 45 minutes Possibly, but anybody surprised with a northward move of this storm hasn't paid attention to past events. I'm not talking about something that damages our chances for a big storm, but something that would give those on the southern edge pause. It might also end the talk of these unbelievable 3'+ snowfall totals. I just can't see getting that kind of total, anywhere. But, I don't have a crystal ball, so....But nobody should be shocked by a move north. Someone said it early...how would you like to be forecasting for central PA, northern NJ, or NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM is fine but I'm not sure it's right either. If it deviates at this range take it with some salt. But philly and NyC are megastorm magnets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why does the NAM snowdepth only show 15-18" for DC while it gives DC 2.6" of precipitation? Are ratios really that bad? Use snowfall, not snow depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Use snowfall, not snow depth. I know, I was referring to the capital weather gang map they had on their liveblog - it shows 12-18" for DC : https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/20/model-live-blog-honing-in-on-the-details-of-a-huge-winter-storm/ See surface snow depth of the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Oh nos, the 12Z CRAS turns us to rain http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/images/cras45na_pcp_084m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know, I was referring to the capital weather gang map they had on their liveblog - it shows 12-18" for DC : https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/20/model-live-blog-honing-in-on-the-details-of-a-huge-winter-storm/ See surface snow depth of the 00z NAM. I feel like the CWG has gone mainstream, and is less likely to make a higher end call even if guidance supports it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I feel like the CWG has gone mainstream, and is less likely to make a higher end call even if guidance supports it. Yes, I don't understand why they're using the surface snowdepth map of the NAM - they already correctly point out that the NAM starts us as rain which is probably not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Fox 5 "Forecast 3.0": Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM is fine but I'm not sure it's right either. If it deviates at this range take it with some salt. But philly and NyC are megastorm magnets. Philly missed the blizzard last year it was forecasted to get. They got nothing. NYC was going to get 25 and got a very generous 10 from Central Park-Newark much less. They can miss too-also to a northern trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why does the NAM snowdepth only show 15-18" for DC while it gives DC 2.6" of precipitation? Are ratios really that bad? Probably because you are using the wrong map. Use total snowfall not snowdepth. oy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Probably because you are using the wrong map. Use total snowfall not snowdepth. oy See comment above about CWG and their map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's the only thing out on the RGEM, but here's a link to the vertical motion map at 48 hrs....I see no problem with it http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/770_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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