Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looking at the map it looks like 1.00-1.5 inches of precipitation. I am confused where you guys are getting 2+ inches for the Sref. ETA: The map that I posted We live in the DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 21Z SREF look good for DC/NOVA..2"+ for most of NOVA and DC proper...1.5 - 2 for all of MD Plumes are solid. Just need to remove three members that show essentially no precip at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looking at the map it looks like 1.00-1.5 inches of precipitation. I am confused where you guys are getting 2+ inches for the Sref. ETA: The map that I posted There's more that fell before that frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looking at the map it looks like 1.00-1.5 inches of precipitation. I am confused where you guys are getting 2+ inches for the Sref. ETA: The map that I posted You're only looking at part of the storm. It lasts longer than 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Joe bastardi thinks the low may hug the coast a bit more than currently modeled. Don't know if that would have much of an affect or not on snow totals. He still thinks the bullseye will be in NOVA and MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I like the two members that give DCA about 3 feet or more of snow 7 members show 2 feet or more at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM starting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Joe bastardi thinks the low may hug the coast a bit more than currently modeled. Don't know if that would have much of an affect or not on snow totals. He still thinks the bullseye will be in NOVA and MD. The dude is just not capable of making an unbiased forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 May have already been mentioned, but will the data from the special dropsonde/sounding events be ingested for the 0z runs? Not directly. 18Z soundings will be ingested into 18Z runs. Soundings are ingested +-3 hours from cycle time. DTK can correct me if I'm mistaken. But, since they are ingested into the 18Z and 6Z cycles they will have an impact on the other cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You're only looking at part of the storm. It lasts longer than 24 hours. Wes and Matt, I would think this event compares favorably to the hallowed knickerbocker event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks wetter to me than the previous run. Keep me nice and cold. I'm liking your 16-22. So it seems like we are safe from mixing unless you are on the Eastern shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The JMA is on board lock it up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Can someone post wind maps please I live along the bay and am trying to get a handle on gust and sustained winds in Annapolis. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Plumes are solid. Just need to remove three members that show essentially no precip at all. I noticed the mean snowfall went down a hair. Went up a bunch in other places like NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So it seems like we are safe from mixing unless you are on the Eastern shore? You are worrying way too much about mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Joe bastardi thinks the low may hug the coast a bit more than currently modeled. Don't know if that would have much of an affect or not on snow totals. He still thinks the bullseye will be in NOVA and MD. It would for out here. But then you have to start worrying about the boundary layers in the city. I hope it stays right where it is modeled to be now. Mega storm for everyone would be nice for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I want people to see this to show you how crazy the NAM model can be. Look at the moisture differences over Arkansas. The first map is the 18z NAM @ 30 hours, 2nd is the 00z NAM @ 24 hours...just unbelievable differences for this short a time span on a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 @Hour 30 the NAM is a good 25 miles North? Maybe more. Also its more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Much stronger primary. Front end thump should be intense Lots of data going into the 00Z models tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 @Hour 34 the NAM is maybe 50-100 miles north. I may be wrong though. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012100&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=034 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM moves north faster but is further east with the ridge behind it. Should break even with 18z. Edit: Stronger closed low also and precip way west, may come out ahead of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM moves north faster but is further east with the ridge behind it. Should break even with 18z.[/quotIs it more amped than 18z? Yes and more extensive precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam has the pl pretty much headed to Central/Western TN this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's the predictable move north. Just an expansion, not a shift. Many people forget that in the big 09/10 storms PHL to BOS also cashed in big. PHL actually beat out BWI I am pretty sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just an expansion, not a shift. Many people forget that in the big 09/10 storms PHL to BOS also cashed in big. PHL actually beat out BWI I am pretty sure. I don't know. The NAM is moving north on this run, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just an expansion, not a shift. Many people forget that in the big 09/10 storms PHL to BOS also cashed in big. PHL actually beat out BWI I am pretty sure. Yes you are correct measured 24" in that dump with 40-50 mph winds here in Media Delaware County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just an expansion, not a shift. Many people forget that in the big 09/10 storms PHL to BOS also cashed in big. PHL actually beat out BWI I am pretty sure. i'm pretty sure Boston was shut out in 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam at 36 has closed contour at 500 mb and is north of 18z run which did not have closed contour yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't know. The NAM is moving north on this run, isn't it? 850 low is NW at 39 maybe 100 miles from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 48 Nam is bringing the front thump this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.