Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 16 gefs members have dca in or on the edge of the bullseye. Some of the solutions are silly. I'm on my phone. Someone should post the DC zoomed member snow plots from wxbell just for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 16 gefs members have dca in or on the edge of the bullseye. Some of the solutions are silly. I'm on my phone. Someone should post the DC zoomed member snow plots from wxbell just for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 May have already been mentioned, but will the data from the special dropsonde/sounding events be ingested for the 0z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Brain, switch to the DC local panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherGuy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 gefs_snow_ens_ma_26.png Am I reading those ensembles right? All but 21 of 22 have DC over 12"? Hard to see on my crappy office laptop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Brain, switch to the DC local panel. Ask and ye shall recieve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That bulls eye still seems wonky to me lol. Be interesting to see if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CAPE! Now we're talkin'. There is little or no useful info to be gleaned this close in but fun to look at. My guess is #3 is dialed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 May have already been mentioned, but will the data from the special dropsonde/sounding events be ingested for the 0z runs? From what I've seen, yes. Things will be well sampled around the country. No stone un turned basically. Things looking great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CAPE! Now we're talkin'. There is little or no useful info to be gleaned this close in but fun to look at. CAPE beat me to it Not a big WeatherBell user, but paid up for this event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Some pretty extreme NW cut offs in there, even in many of the good members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ensembles are out of range... stop using them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ensembles are out of range... stop using them. Dude, we're just having fun. We know better. This thread will be an archived legend. More maps the merrier at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CAPE beat me to it Not a big WeatherBell user, but paid up for this event! Sorry! I had it up anyway lol. Good timing. Fun stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If we want more maps, more maps it is. It's the NAVGEM (lol) but it's in between model runs so whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I still love the elegance of the past few Euro runs. Such a nice uniform snow distribution that would make many happy. And the bonus snows are out in the mountains of W VA, where it seems to make more sense. Of course we have meso banding to track as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Navgem would be acceptable. There's really not a whole lot to discuss at this point. Time to have fun and let the chips fall. We're under a blizzard watch. Everybody knows were getting pounded. Time to root for extreme scenarios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If we want more maps, more maps it is. It's the NAVGEM (lol) but it's in between model runs so whatever. Other than a couple suppressed runs, NAVGEM has looked pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Navgem would be acceptable. There's really not a whole lot to discuss at this point. Time to have fun and let the chips fall. We're under a blizzard watch. Everybody knows were getting pounded. Time to root for extreme scenarios Not under a blizz watch(yet) here. But my point/click has 7-11 inches for Friday night alone. I am down with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CAPE! Now we're talkin'. There is little or no useful info to be gleaned this close in but fun to look at. My guess is #3 is dialed in By my count, looks like 12 members have the general metro areas in the "light bluish" or higher shading (plus the control)...which is over 20". (ETA: I know ensembles are sort of out of range now, but just pointing this out.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 By my count, looks like 12 members have the general metro areas in the "light bluish" or higher shading (plus the control)...which is over 20". (ETA: I know ensembles are sort of out of range now, but just pointing this out.) They are only "out of range" in the sense that at shorter leads as we near the event, any discrepancies among them, and in comparison to the op, had better be small...otherwise the model isn't very useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Starting tonight, I'd begin paying attention to the RGEM. It has performed fairly well with "snow details" over the last couple of years. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Starting tonight, I'd begin paying attention to the RGEM. It has performed fairly well with "snow details" over the last couple of years. MDstorm Was saying this earlier. One of the best parts of 09-10 was watching the RGEM go nuts. Many shifts can still occur over the next 48 hours and the RGEM was often first to see them as I recall. A good snow model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Navgem would be acceptable. There's really not a whole lot to discuss at this point. Time to have fun and let the chips fall. We're under a blizzard watch. Everybody knows were getting pounded. Time to root for extreme scenarios Last night navgem was headed to Bermuda so I guess it's good that it came around. What's nice is that if history repeats itself and this storm trends slightly north to game time we have that wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I really wish ECMWF would release the 12z PARA.....Maybe they're not confident in the model right now and making last minute tweaks before it goes operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Was saying this earlier. One of the best parts of 09-10 was watching the RGEM go nuts. Many shifts can still occur over the next 48 hours and the RGEM was often first to see them as I recall. A good snow model. Agreed. I love the RGEM for picking up precip maxes. It can struggle with temps at times but in this case that's not going to matter much for most of us. I'll trust it over any op through 36 hours for precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Don't know if it was already was posted but here is the Sref. Very Juicy! ETA: Looks more amped then 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 21Z SREF look good for DC/NOVA..2"+ for most of NOVA and DC proper...1.5 - 2 for all of MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 21Z SREF look good for DC/NOVA..2"+ for most of NOVA and DC proper...1.5 - 2 for all of MD Looks wetter to me than the previous run. Keep me nice and cold. I'm liking your 16-22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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