Sparky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I know you guys have seen the NAM but for the archives. Look at that goodbye band on the last frame of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 18z GFS looks nice and juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 18z GFS start time around 3pm for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lets see how low DCA can come in during an event that is so intense that any UHI effect would be totally mixed out. If you think heat leakage from some buildings and the Potomac River can overwhelm 1-2"ph and 25-35mph winds then I got some swampland for ya. Seeing as DCA somehow recorded .3" out of the Sunday event, maybe there is a new sheriff in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's correcting west as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 1 foot in the district by 06z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Heh, totals are going to be fun this run. Tighter to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Definitely no issues with the presence of a front-end thump on this run of the GFS... now to sit back and wait for the back-end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 63 I95 corridor slammed Much stronger and amped 996 over obx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's still east of the other guidance but makes a lot more sense.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 69-72 GFS still has a ridiculous slot. NAM has this all filled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Others would know better, but I think it has to do with location. The airport is essentially on an island of sorts out on the Potomac. I won't even get into the speculation/conspiracy theories on their measurements (which I've seen)...some perhaps warranted, some not. The Potomac is largely frozen over down to the 14th St. bridge now. After another cold night tonight, Open water surrounding the airport may no longer be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's still east of the other guidance but makes a lot more sense.. GFS does some weird stuff with precip. on the back side of cyclones. From how it looks to me it seems the model likes to go subsidence crazy behind precip maxes near the center of circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's just a filthy run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 81-84 GFS then reforms the deformation band over the area Snows till 12z sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Absolutely crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS does some weird stuff with precip. on the back side of cyclones. From how it looks to me it seems the model likes to go subsidence crazy behind precip maxes near the center of circulation. for sure...It is still doing it, but has finally caught on...Western and NW zones get smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 almost 3' on the ground in the beltway by 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS 87HR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Absolutely crushing. we may flirt with mixing this run..at least 30 miles south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Spitting image of the NAM clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's 2+ for all of extended DC-Balt Metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Insanity! .75 to 1 inch from 63 to 69 hr for DC area - amazing run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 we may flirt with mixing this run..at least 30 miles south and east Temp gradient tightens at 09z-12z from 850 to 800 it seems. Brings the freezing line closer, but also dips around the Beltway to keep us "safe". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If i recall correctly, the GFS was pretty consistently progging 16-22 inches for central md around this time frame before the Feb 5-6 2010 event. The fact that it is now stabilizing around 24-30 inches for the same region is rather encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is insane. Spitting image of 18z nam. Is this really possible. A metro DC bullseye with 24-30 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Temp gradient tightens at 09z-12z from 850 to 800 it seems. Brings the freezing line closer, but also dips around the Beltway to keep us "safe". Yup...sounds look good for all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This run really puts Richmond into the game for some of the bigger totals. Key will be missing the dry slot, but overall these have been great trends for those of us down here. Reminder: last snow over a foot at RIC? Feb 1983. Trying to break a 33 year drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 You can see the improvement. It is partly synoptic and partly I think the model resolving QPF dist better. def move toward Euro/GGEM...12z on top...18z on bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I like the "snow may be heavy at times" that is already in our zone forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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