mappy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 FYI -- 12z NAM had 2.31 qpf for Westminster, with more after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z para GFS is in -- looks a bit less wonky than the op -- averaged over the region probably a bit wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdougtastic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not that it matters, but the NAM totals include ~1" from tonight... so only 35". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 you'll do well where you are...I don't care what the models show.. Everyone south of the MD/PA line will do fine. The northern cutoff shifts 20 miles south and everyone freaks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Snowfall maps are up: http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter They are definitely favoring the high end. Min-max looks reasonable, but would have thought forecast in the city closer to 15-18 than 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 22" beats blizzard of 1899 for number 2 in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 They are definitely favoring the high end. Min-max looks reasonable, but would have thought forecast in the city closer to 15-18 than 22. If I'm not mistaken, I believe that is only through 7pm Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 22" beats blizzard of 1899 for number 2 in the city. Tho 22" in DC and Arlington translates to 18" at DCA.. which would still be no. 4 behind pd1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z para GFS is in -- looks a bit less wonky than the op -- averaged over the region probably a bit wetter Snow arrives a touch faster --- a little before hour 57 for 12z GFS Para (which would be 3pm-4pm on Friday). Moves out at hr 99 - so a 42 hour storm or so. All snow - mixing line is a good ways SE. Lots of liquid - between 2.5 - 3 inches it looks like with a spot south of DC getting over 3 inches. Very nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 22" beats blizzard of 1899 for number 2 in the city. DCA itself at it's current location has not yet cracked the 20" barrier. Even PD-I in 1979 didn't. I'm rooting for them to finally break that. Thought they would do it during Feb. 5-6, but came up short (though 2nd behind 1979 at that site). We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If I'm not mistaken, I believe that is only through 7pm Saturday. GOOD CATCH! LWX only going to 7PM saturday there is more to add to that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshanaz Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How does the timing/duration of the storm in Baltimore differ from DC (if it does...)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 22" beats blizzard of 1899 for number 2 in the city. LWX took until Friday morning around 9 am on 2/5/10 to raise their forecast for DC to 20-30". It started at 16-24", and then 18-24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How does the timing/duration of the storm in Baltimore differ from DC (if it does...)? The duration is the same and the timing is an hour or two later start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How does the timing/duration of the storm in Baltimore differ from DC (if it does...)? Baltimore/Pikesville usually an hour later or so. Obv banding could make big difference, but at least overall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hockeydude35 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 DCA itself at it's current location has not yet cracked the 20" barrier. Even PD-I in 1979 didn't. I'm rooting for them to finally break that. Thought they would do it during Feb. 5-6, but came up short (though 2nd behind 1979 at that site). We'll see. What's the reason behind why DCA seems to always come in less than immediate surrounding areas? Does it have to do with the dynamics around the airport itself? Curious mostly because I live in Crystal City right next to the airport...very interested to see how this turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 DCA itself at it's current location has not yet cracked the 20" barrier. Even PD-I in 1979 didn't. I'm rooting for them to finally break that. Thought they would do it during Feb. 5-6, but came up short (though 2nd behind 1979 at that site). We'll see. 2/5-6/10 had the precip to do it (we all know to disregard the obviously wrong 1.75 liquid equivalent), but they really needed the 2-4" from noon to sunset to accumulate. It was just a bit too warm (34ish) for that first part to stick down at DCA, so it was wasted snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What's the reason behind why DCA seems to always come in less than immediate surrounding areas? Does it have to do with the dynamics around the airport itself? Curious mostly because I live in Crystal City right next to the airport...very interested to see how this turns out. Others would know better, but I think it has to do with location. The airport is essentially on an island of sorts out on the Potomac. I won't even get into the speculation/conspiracy theories on their measurements (which I've seen)...some perhaps warranted, some not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 22" beats blizzard of 1899 for number 2 in the city. Its 26 for Knickerbocker isnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Snow arrives a touch faster --- a little before hour 57 for 12z GFS Para (which would be 3pm-4pm on Friday). Moves out at hr 99 - so a 42 hour storm or so. All snow - mixing line is a good ways SE. Lots of liquid - between 2.5 - 3 inches it looks like with a spot south of DC getting over 3 inches. Very nice hit. Josh, can you post? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lets see how low DCA can come in during an event that is so intense that any UHI effect would be totally mixed out. If you think heat leakage from some buildings and the Potomac River can overwhelm 1-2"ph and 25-35mph winds then I got some swampland for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 0z euro Para is south of the 0z op from last night. Still 20-24 through the cities from what I can tell. Insane totals through central VA. I don't have the zoomed panels but looks like a large area of 3'+ I'm not sure how much the run means now considering how much additional guidance we have on hand. Just stating what it shows. ETA: zoomed panels are in. 27" DCA/21" BWI/25" IAD. Large bullseye of 30-35" in central and parts of eastern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lets see how low DCA can come in during an event that is so intense that any UHI effect would be totally mixed out. If you think heat leakage from some buildings and the Potomac River can overwhelm 1-2"ph and 25-35mph winds then I got some swampland for ya. That airport is on a swamp, though! But true, we'll see if some of these rates can get them past that apparent 20" "glass ceiling". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Its 26 for Knickerbocker isnt it? 28.0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 0z euro Para is south of the 0z op from last night. Still 20-24 through the cities from what I can tell. Insane totals through central VA. I don't have the zoomed panels but looks like a large area of 3'+ I'm not sure how much the run means now considering how much additional guidance we have on hand. Just stating what it shows. So at this point, which models would you start focusing more attention on to help fine tune the forecast? NAM, HRRR,...CRAS? Hahaha. But seriously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lets see how low DCA can come in during an event that is so intense that any UHI effect would be totally mixed out. If you think heat leakage from some buildings and the Potomac River can overwhelm 1-2"ph and 25-35mph winds then I got some swampland for ya. They will be an outlier (low totals) as usual to even locations within a few miles of the airport. We already know what will happen, no point in wondering about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I know you guys have seen the NAM but for the archives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lets see how low DCA can come in during an event that is so intense that any UHI effect would be totally mixed out. If you think heat leakage from some buildings and the Potomac River can overwhelm 1-2"ph and 25-35mph winds then I got some swampland for ya. As is this event looks colder than Snowmageddon tho initially it's not far off so we'll see. It was hours of glop there in that storm. I could see this surpass it.. looks more like Dec 2009 tempwise overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What's the reason behind why DCA seems to always come in less than immediate surrounding areas? Does it have to do with the dynamics around the airport itself? Curious mostly because I live in Crystal City right next to the airport...very interested to see how this turns out. From what I've read, UHI only extends to about 150m above the surface max, and from 200-400m there is actually a slight "cooling island" that occurs for reasons beyond my comprehension. Can't see how that would drastically reduce snowfall. I'd imagine that a lot of the snow defecit is from enhanced ground melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 As is this event looks colder than Snowmageddon tho initially it's not far off so we'll see. It was hours of glop there in that storm. I could see this surpass it.. looks more like Dec 2009 tempwise overall. Also 3 weeks of lower sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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