MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just as filthy as a NAM run should be. Over 2" QPF by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like a 7pm start time. I'm thinking 4 to 7pm now. I think we may see some flurries/--SN as early as 1-2pm...with the steadier stuff in here 4-5pm...as of right now at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 OMFG at NAM. A thing of beauty. 500 mb still much stronger with energy. Double closed contour and puking snow over DC at hour 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Classic NAM'ing.. 30" in NOVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just as filthy as a NAM run should be. Over 2" QPF by 18z. The NAM is stupid wet...You and I could hit 2.8" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just a beautiful location of the 700 lift - the whole thing just pivots right over us. Thankfully this just isn't the NAM out on its own! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Enjoy. 84hr NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 By hour 75 all energy fully wrapped in. Capture occurs, and snowtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The NAM is stupid wet...You and I could hit 2.8" or so I don't know what IWM uses for their snowfall totals, but it is approaching 3' for many of us. Silly, silly NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Foot of snow from 06z to 12z. 2.5 inches of QPF for all of us with no temp problems. Probably overdone but....is exciting none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The really weird thing about the NAM this time is the crazy totals being spit out have already appeared on both the euro and gfs ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The NAM is stupid wet...You and I could hit 2.8" or so I think the operable word is stupid but even if it is overdone and the NAM, it's exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM has the last band swing through west to east around 06z sunday. 30 hr storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Enjoy. 84hr NAM: Close up http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-usregsfc.php?run=2016012018®ion=USANE&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It started early on though in the NAMs wheelhouse. You could already see much more energy on the back side of the trough by hour 24. Once that energy rounded the base and fully wrapped in it went BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 The really weird thing about the NAM this time is the crazy totals being spit out have already appeared on both the euro and gfs ops. I don't think DC has ever got to 2.8" QPF though...has it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Enjoy your 3 feet of snow I-95 corridor says the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Close up http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-usregsfc.php?run=2016012018®ion=USANE&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084 Only 39 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The really weird thing about the NAM this time is the crazy totals being spit out have already appeared on both the euro and gfs ops. If I was forecasting right now, I'd probably go for a general 1.7-2.1 for DC Metro with higher amounts and higher ratios in bands. A general 16-24" seems like a good forecast for us. I'd probably put a swath of 24-30" somewhere south of a JYO - IAD line..of course there could be a sick total somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The NAM was just crazy on this run...looks like it closed off two contours and it's still stalling at hr 84. :o :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Enjoy. 84hr NAM: Snowmageddon had nothing close to 40" on any of the globals or mesoscale models. Just wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Last time it probably means anything...euro ens backed off a touch on mean precip south of DCA but increased the 1.6"/1.8" contours northward. 1" line moved farther into PA. Folks to our N will like this trend. Mean snowfall is 14-20" for everyone. Ahh, the inevitable creep north. Notice too how the NAM has just moved the crazy accumulations a bit north too. Should give the guys in ENE some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I don't think DC has ever got to 2.8" QPF though...has it? 12z GFS had like 3.5" for MBY lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z GFS had like 3.5" for MBY lol Look, i'm with you, I think those numbers are crazy..but it's weird that the normally relatively dry GFS keeps wanting to go all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If I was forecasting right now, I'd probably go for a general 1.7-2.1 for DC Metro with higher amounts and higher ratios in bands. A general 16-24" seems like a good forecast for us. I'd probably put a swath of 24-30" somewhere south of a JYO - IAD line..of course there could be a sick total somewhere... Hard to argue a single thing there. Parrs area should get a little help from orographics during the deform too. But that doesn't mean they jack. Seems like the highest totals might be in VA this time. I'm not sure how different 20" vs 24" vs 30" will feel when winds are gusting into the 40's. It's all going to look the same outside. Well, if you can see anything outside. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It started early on though in the NAMs wheelhouse. You could already see much more energy on the back side of the trough by hour 24. Once that energy rounded the base and fully wrapped in it went BOOM That's good, right - because while 70hrs might not be NAM wheelhouse, 24 is supposed to be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Look, i'm with you, I think those numbers are crazy..but it's weird that the normally relatively dry GFS keeps wanting to go all in The GFS was kooky. Honestly, I'd toss it completely..esp if 18Z catches on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Also remember these 18z runs have extra data added Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Snowfall maps are up: http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Minimum: Most Likely: Maximum: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Cutoff is sharper every run you'll do well where you are...I don't care what the models show.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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