olafminesaw Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 am I looking at the same SREF, they looked kinda dryer/south compared to the last run to me. But the sref kinda suck bad so I didnt examine them that much just a glance. A bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 CIPS Analogs for the 12z NAM run for Friday night (0z 1/23) are beyond staggering. Look at the top 4. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2016012012 CIPS Analog.PNG Wow... those each gave our area at least a foot of snow... I like those analogs very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looked at the 12Z Saturday sounding for DC and it showed an even better unstable layer than the NAM. I'll be surprised it someone does not hear thunder in the area Saturday morning I tweeted out to Ian earlier about possible GW enhancement with TSSN+ and a 4-6 hr burst. Very impressive Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 RLX already all in and warnings up URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV253 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TODAY...HIGH IMPACT STORM FORECAST FORTHURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WVZ038>040-046-047-210400-/O.UPG.KRLX.WS.A.0001.160122T1200Z-160124T0600Z//O.NEW.KRLX.WS.W.0001.160122T1200Z-160124T0600Z/WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEBSTER SPRINGS...BUCKHANNON...PHILIPPI...BELINGTON...MARLINTON...ELKINS253 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM ESTSUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AMFRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER INEFFECT.* HAZARD...HEAVY SNOW. MAY MIX WITH SLEET FRIDAY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS EXPOSED HIGH TERRAIN.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...18 TO 24 INCHES.* TIMING...DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.* IMPACTS...POWER OUTAGES...FALLING TREES...AND IMPASSIBLE ROADS.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM is already closed at 21 hours at 500mb. Was still open at 12z for 27 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nam at 27 hours is digging slightly more compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Our experts last night on the radio show all favored January 1996 as the top analog for the 500mb evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Our experts last night on the radio show all favored January 1996 as the top analog for the 500mb evolution. That's the number one storm on my list and a majority of others lists. What an amazing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Last time it probably means anything...euro ens backed off a touch on mean precip south of DCA but increased the 1.6"/1.8" contours northward. 1" line moved farther into PA. Folks to our N will like this trend. Mean snowfall is 14-20" for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I am glad NWS will have it fixed in a week We are experiencing spikes in traffic that are leading to delays in downloading images from this site, especially when accessing the GFS model data. We expect to implement a solution to this issue by 1/27/2016. We appreciate your patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Our experts last night on the radio show all favored January 1996 as the top analog for the 500mb evolution. Pretty good agreement there. I'll take a redux of any single one of those analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nam even more amped at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdougtastic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Usually just lurk, but I haven't seen anyone mention this yet. lwx has their winter weather page accumulations updated until sat. 7 pm. Totals still missing 12+ hours of the storm. http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM at 36 hours is digging more and looks stronger with more energy on the back side of ULL. Wow. I feel a Nam'ing coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM at 45 looks great. No major changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nam 45 hours a tick south, 546 closed at 500 mb and way more energy on the back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 317 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016 ...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MDZ022-023-VAZ065>067-077>083-085-514-516-518-520-522-210430- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.160122T1200Z-160124T1200Z/ WICOMICO-SOMERSET-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-NORTHUMBERLAND- LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT- MIDDLESEX-EASTERN CHESTERFIELD-EASTERN HENRICO- EASTERN KING WILLIAM-EASTERN KING AND QUEEN-EASTERN ESSEX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SALISBURY...CRISFIELD...PRINCESS ANNE... SOUTH HILL...CREWE...LAWRENCEVILLE...PETERSBURG...HOPEWELL... CHESTERFIELD...CHESTER...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...SANDSTON... KING WILLIAM...WEST POINT...KING AND QUEEN COURTHOUSE... DUNNSVILLE 317 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * AREAS AFFECTED: SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND WICOMICO AND SOMERSET COUNTIES IN LOWER SOUTHEAST MARYLAND. * HAZARDS: SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS. * ACCUMULATIONS: 4 INCHES OR GREATER OF SNOW. UP ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. * TEMPERATURES: RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S LATE FRIDAY AND REMAINING NEARLY STEADY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * WINDS: NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY...BECOMING NORTH AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. * TIMING: SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY...GRADUALLY MIXING WITH SLEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PERIODS OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A CHANGE BACK TO A PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW AND ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nam beginning to get out of useful range but wow, tick south and energy close to rounding the base at 500 mb at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Less confluence...big hit coning Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 51 hours snow on DC dorrsteps. 500 mb still closed and energy rounding base now. I bet this thing blows up in next frame or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Light snow starts around hr 54 for 18z NAM (7pm Friday - similar to EURO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like a 7pm start time. I'm thinking 4 to 7pm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 1000mb low tucked into the outer banks at hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like a 7pm start time. I'm thinking 4 to 7pm now. Should come in like a wall of sorts. Not right to heavy or anything. The nice thing about coastal WAA snow is you don't have to wait long for the column to saturate. Unlike stuff from the north and west where you have an hour + of radar returns overhead before the first flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hour 60 at 500 mb. 540 dm closed. More energy wrapping in now compared to 12z. Still a tick south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 998 Tucked Just outside Obx at 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Foot of snow from 06z to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hour 63 heavy snow in DC and Nam'ing time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I know it is the NAM but 500 mb looks epic at hour 63. Much more energy and it looks like it wants to close 2 contours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM 24"+ for beltway by 18z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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