ravensrule Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Uniform 19-21" for almost everyone. 2' runs right down the Blue Ridge My snow maps are showing 28" for me and you. WxBell seems very conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 QPF: 2.1 IAD 1.9 BWI 2.0 DCA 2.3 Winchester 2.1 Frederick 1.9 Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hate to nitpick but last nights run gave DCA 27 inches with 30+ south and west. Seems to be a reduction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Keep the damn ZOMG post to a minimum people. No BANTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sounds in line with most of our big storms and right in the climo favored areas. Bob, how are the winds? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 40-50+ mph gusts for most of saturday morning. 12-18z panels are howling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hate to nitpick but last nights run gave DCA 27 inches with 30+ south and west. Seems to be a reduction. Yeah, it shaved off about .5" for almost everyone. I guess that's to be expected getting closer to onset though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 But keep in mind, banding that isn't modeled can still set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yeah, it shaved off about .5" for almost everyone. I guess that's to be expected getting closer to onset though. Meh I'm sure there's reasons DC hasn't gotten a 30" snowstorm in the last 100+ years. I think forecasting the potential for a foot or more is the proper call at this point. Still 48 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherGuy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 looks a little more realistic than the GFS fun zone distribution of qpf Agree. More even distribution and slightly lower QPF numbers make this storm look much more normal...for a classic top-10 all time HECS for the DC area. This actually makes me more confident that we won't bust. I really buy into this Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 First run of Euro that is colder after the storm on Sunday. Also 850's crash saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 12z to 18z Sat period is definitely blizzard conditions. .6-1" of precip falls during that 6 hour span and winds are gusting in the 40's for most of us. Wes and the bay is in the 50's to even mid 60's. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The EURO shows the surface low moving ENE from the VA tidewater. So...the low isn't going to hug the coast for 12 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 keep in mind 11-12:1 is probable, and ratios in bands will be higher...if we get a fairly even dist of 1.7-2" QPF, widespread 18-24" is likely with localized 30"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The EURO shows the surface low moving ENE from the VA tidewater. So...the low isn't going to hug the coast for 12 hours? It stalls for 12 hours before moving out. It's a 36 hour event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 keep in mind 11-12:1 is probable, and ratios in bands will be higher...if we get a fairly even dist of 1.7-2" QPF, widespread 18-24" is likely with localized 30"+ Agree totally. There're going to be some little jacks embedded in the deform band for sure. Personally, I love the run. Makes complete sense and the #'s are believable. We seem to be in an usually good spot for this storm from start to finish. Pretty amazing really. Euro moves the front side stuff in somewhere around sunset but doesn't really get cranking until the middle of the night. We could do better on the front than what is being depicted but total speculation and don't really care either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 40-50+ mph gusts for most of saturday morning. 12-18z panels are howling What was the top wind speed at DCA during the Blizzard of 93? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Euro has not had the lead on this storm imho so maybe we look harder at other models for now. Plenty of time for things to shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Watch compared to 09/10 blizz warnings http://m.imgur.com/a/crlLe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Euro has not had the lead on this storm imho so maybe we look harder at other models for now. Plenty of time for things to shift. I would use a Euro/GGEM combo right now, though GGEM maybe is going a little nuts with banding....Euro had one wonky run 24 hours ago....to me it in no way impacts how much we weight it now...I am placing very little weight on the GFS...it gives me 3', and screws areas like OKV and MRB because they get dryslotted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The EURO shows the surface low moving ENE from the VA tidewater. So...the low isn't going to hug the coast for 12 hours? I found that to be an interesting part of this run. It's similar to the 1996 blizzard in the way it transfers, but I would like to think it sticks around just a tiny bit longer than what the Euro is showing, but it's a good stall nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 3" QPF totals from some of the extreme runs could certainly be too high. I think this most recent run of the Euro is very realistic given the type of storm we are dealing with. We don't have to get a Washington/Jefferson-like storm for it to be memorable, historic, major. Blizzard conditions and a crap ton of snow seem like a lock at this point. If I'm shoveling 18-22 inches of snow on Saturday PM and Sunday I will be in heaven. That Euro run should definitely settle any fears that folks had...sure it's not "widespread 30 inch totals" but it is still a massive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 some random model that just came out looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 some random model that just came out looks good I assume this random map is based on 10:1 ratios. I would think ratios will be slightly better for most especially later in the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Is there a version of this random map that includes Delmarva? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Is there a version of this random map that includes Delmarva? 13" for Salisbury. More further inland, only 4" in Ocean City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Quote from another source on the UKMET: "UK on SV at 72 is a hair east of Euro. Then at 96 it's a similar to Euro. SV doesn't have panels before 72. We have a good consensus." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 13" for Salisbury. More further inland, only 4" in Ocean City A gentleman and a scholar, thank you. Gonna be a mess over here, lots of P-type timing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ready to rock and roll. http://madusweather.com/2016/01/winter-storm-threat-january-22-24-initial-call/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 A gentleman and a scholar, thank you. Gonna be a mess over here, lots of P-type timing issues. There is also a thread for Lower Eastern Shore and So MD. I have been posting projected snowfall amounts there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 AA County sent out robocall warnings to make sure we have enough non-perishable foods and batteries to survive the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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