RodneyS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I would not trust this, but it breaks the individual days into two parts Friday/Friday night, and same for Saturday. It totals like 19 to 26 inches. Sorry, I missed that. I also see something similar for DC on their parent company's website (Weather Channel): Around in inch Friday during the day, 8-12 inches Friday evening, 5-8 inches Saturday during the day, and 5-8 inches Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GGEM That looks about what I would think this storm would do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I agree...WAA front end thumps like we got in 1996 and 2003 are money in the bank. Not a lot of risk that goes wrong. But as the models have shifted towards less of a primary low up west of the apps into Tenn and a quicker secondary taking over along the coast down towards the SC/GA coast versus eastern NC, that shuts off the WAA spike much sooner. Once that happens we rely on the ccb and deform with the coastal, a much more complicated thing for the models to nail down. Thats why we have started to see more shifting around with the qpf maxes run to run the last day or two then we did before that. I am NOT being a downer at all, right now the coastal track and where it gets captured is perfect for our area to get a historic storm anyways, but it does raise the bust potential on truly epic totals verifying. Good post. These types of thoughts are exactly why people shouldn't be expecting a high probability of breaking records. It's never as simple and easy as it seems and almost all storms have tricks up their sleeves (for better or for worse). There's a reason why the types of accums the models are spitting out are incredibly rare for a single storm. Hitting all 8 cylinders just right isn't common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So are people completely throwing in the towel on front end thump or just noting the possibility? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So are people completely throwing in the towel on front end thump or just noting the possibility? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk expect the unexpected for which you are expecting... which is to be expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The bullseyes of snow that some of these models are spitting out don't make sense to me. I could see a band being an area of heavier totals, but not a circle. Doesn't matter one bit, especially this far out, but it interests me why it does that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The bullseyes of snow that some of these models are spitting out don't make sense to me. I could see a band being an area of heavier totals, but not a circle. Doesn't matter one bit, especially this far out, but it interests me why it does that. I'm guessing it's something of a resolution effect but not 100% sure. The globals know some funky banding action is going to happen but it gets washed out at their resolution. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For the love of it...there will be mixing. How many times must I explain this?Somewhere sure but around here certainly not guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm guessing it's something of a resolution effect but not 100% sure. The globals know some funky banding action is going to happen but it gets washed out at their resolution. Maybe. That's also my take on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Somewhere sure but around here certainly not guaranteed. Best bet east of 95 along bay communities, possibly into DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Any word on the UKMET? The two sites I use don't have the 12z update from today (Plymouth and meteocentre) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm guessing it's something of a resolution effect but not 100% sure. The globals know some funky banding action is going to happen but it gets washed out at their resolution. Maybe.I think the enhancement is real its just poorly handled particularly by GFS. That blob keeps happening near tip of 700mb low.. About where you should see enhancement but 1.5-2" in 6 hours in a circle seems unlikely. Of course it does make the snow maps more fun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Do we even look at the GEFS now, or are we too close they lose their worth? 48 hours to showtime? I heard they were SE of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think the enhancement is real its just poorly handled particularly by GFS. That blob keeps happening near tip of 700mb low.. About where you should see enhancement but 1.5-2" in 6 hours in a circle seems unlikely. Of course it does make the snow maps more fun.. Yeah. Euro has hinted at this. This may be a place for the nam to help...around its 18Z run Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GEFS at 84 and 96 are just silly to look at... even if we are supposed to focus more on the OP run Silly good or silly bad? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think the enhancement is real its just poorly handled particularly by GFS. That blob keeps happening near tip of 700mb low.. About where you should see enhancement but 1.5-2" in 6 hours in a circle seems unlikely. Of course it does make the snow maps more fun.. If you go back and look at the radar loop for the feb 2013 blizzard in sne there was a hellacious convective band that dropped rates up to 8"/hr over parts of CT also near the tip of the 700 mb low. It was not a bullseye of qpf but i wouldn't be surprised if a similar type band sets up in the area you mention. Whoever gets into that band will probably be the lollipop that pushes accumulation over 30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Do we even look at the GEFS now, or are we too close they lose their worth? 48 hours to showtime? I heard they were SE of the op. 12z GEFS mean through 96 bullseye DCA to EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z GEFS mean through 96 bullseye DCA to EZF The storm should be over by then shouldn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Silly good or silly bad? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I deleted my post... it was from 00z GEFS reforecast.., so it really has no value... my apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I deleted my post... it was from 00z GEFS reforecast.., so it really has no value... my apologies Ah - thanks. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The storm should be over by then shouldn't it? Yes.... I was using the 96 hr frame as an ending to catch the very end of the deform band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Here's the QPF from the members. It's too close to overthink these kinds of outputs but they look fine nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 some just never learn I know its not a big deal and I understand where mixing usually occurs. I was asking about the GFS not showing mixing for us folks between 95 and the bay. Wes commented that it didn't show mixing even for him. I was just asking ers if this is a possibility. But it looks like he says I will still mix which is fine. I don't always mix during big storms. Didn't happen in 09 or 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yeah. Euro has hinted at this. This may be a place for the nam to help...around its 18Z run Friday. This. HRRR will also definitely show where the deform sets up. Really believe all the rest is just noise until Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GEFS individs at 96... all are hits and above 6" of snow at DCA except for 2 outliers, which are like 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I liked the 00z GFS and the 6z GFS way better. This run cut my total a good 40% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 WUSA Channel 9 1st call: https://twitter.com/TenaciousTopper/status/689864334734819328/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 WUSA Channel 9 1st call: https://twitter.com/TenaciousTopper/status/689864334734819328/photo/1 Must be thinking mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What a disaster 81 is gonna be. 75 Miles of 2+ feet on that road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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