McQuackleton Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Enjoy. 90hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 DCA IS the bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS has flurries through 12Z Sunday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Who cares if there was no blizzard watch before. We've had blizzard warnings. Judgment calls aren't records and models are way better today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Who cares if there was no blizzard watch before. We've had blizzard warnings. Judgment calls aren't records and models are way better today. I think people are just excited - not critical. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think people are just excited - not critical. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yes. It's just a noteworthy footnote, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sneak peek at the 12z GGEM for those who care 48 -- 1002mb SLP in C AL 60 -- 1000 mb SLP just south of ILM (transfer ongoing) 72 -- waiting for image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I wonder what ers-wxman1 thinks of the GFS showing no mixing for even Wes down in Calvert County. If Wes isn't mixing then I'm not going to mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 2' by 18z, and then it just gets silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm so loving how the gfs and euro both vertically stack and occlude the low in a perfect spot to keep this a cold storm for most everyone west of the bay. It's really just a thing of beauty. The storm just dumps it's load right on us during the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yes. It's just a noteworthy footnote, that's all. I'm kinda pumped about it because at age 45 never been under one - kinda fun to be in middle of this kind of anticipated event, obviously... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Who cares if there was no blizzard watch before. We've had blizzard warnings. Judgment calls aren't records and models are way better today. it was either a watch or a warning. i didn't know that was the discussion. i know a special weather statement went out that wednesday, but don't remember exactly when the first watches/warnings were hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS looks good but the truly huge snows are more restricted than the previous runs it appears. Just noise with the banding I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I wonder what ers-wxman1 thinks of the GFS showing no mixing for even Wes down in Calvert County. If Wes isn't mixing then I'm not going to mix.Mixing is just something we talk about like sun angle. Plenty of big storms we don't mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 MUch colder run than the NAM. No mix problems even for me. Great banding which won't be in the right place. I'm not sure I buy into this idea of this big GFS transfer and dry slot....I don't think the QPF distribution and amounts are to be taken too seriously....I know the Euro had the wonky run yesterday afternoon, but last night's run makes more sense.....I think the QPF distribution on the 0zEPS/6zGEFS/0zCMCENS makes more sense...where Shenandoah/NW VA does much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Anyone have the wxbell gfs snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS moved the wonky looking precip jackpot zone to the DC area instead of over Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Annnnnnnnnnnnnnd the 12z GGEM smokes us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Anyone have the wxbell gfs snowfall map? here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It is really hard to take that dot over DC seriously. The whole trough never goes negative and barely even neutral. BOS is shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm not sure I buy into this idea of this big GFS transfer and dry slot....I don't think the QPF distribution and amounts are to be taken too seriously....I know the Euro had the wonky run yesterday afternoon, but last night's run makes more sense.....I think the QPF distribution on the 0zEPS/6zGEFS/0zCMCENS makes more sense...where Shenandoah/NW VA does much better This ^...agree that area has best chance for 3' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Mixing is just something we talk about like sun angle. Plenty of big storms we don't mix Yeah I know. I would mix before you guys in DC. He has just been harping on mixing east of 95. I was just wondering what he thought of this run since it did not show mixing east of 95 to the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 here you go Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm not sure I buy into this idea of this big GFS transfer and dry slot....I don't think the QPF distribution and amounts are to be taken too seriously....I know the Euro had the wonky run yesterday afternoon, but last night's run makes more sense.....I think the QPF distribution on the 0zEPS/6zGEFS/0zCMCENS makes more sense...where Shenandoah/NW VA does much better GFS seems to do this a lot with precip with intensifying storms. I think just looking at a blend of track and evolution like you said makes much more sense too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Feels strange to say that I have a 30"+ contour over my house, and I don't really like this run that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It is really hard to take that dot over DC seriously. The whole trough never goes negative and barely even neutral. BOS is shut out. GFS seems to do this a lot with precip with intensifying storms. I think just looking at a blend of track and evolution like you said makes much more sense too. I don't think it is a very good run...Last night's run made more sense.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 10m winds suggest true blizzard conditions for around 12 hours in the city Saturday. One negative to living at elevation and away from the coast is we wont get those amazing winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Feels strange to say that I have a 30"+ contour over my house, and I don't really like this run that much. It bothers me a little that the storm seems to be changing from a front-end thump with a back side bomb to a wound up single low requiring tricky placement of a deform band. Outside that band most folks will get like a foot or so according to the GFS. The big totals are becoming more restricted on these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GEM 992 over East VA http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/12z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ma_f69.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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