January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #3 - No Banter

[yuki neko]

12z NAM cobb is out FWIW

Some high ratio fluff tonight

160121/0000Z  12  22005KT  26.5F  SNOW   13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021   13:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---160121/0100Z  13  22004KT  26.7F  SNOW   18:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038   16:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0160121/0200Z  14  23003KT  26.7F  SNOW   20:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018   17:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0160121/0300Z  15  25003KT  26.9F  SNOW   18:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   17:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0160121/0400Z  16  27003KT  27.0F  SNOW   11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005   17:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0160121/0500Z  17  29004KT  27.0F  SNOW   18:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006   17:1|  1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10  100|  0|  0160121/0600Z  18  29006KT  27.4F  SNOW   10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003   17:1|  1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10  100|  0|  0

Then the actual storm

160122/2300Z  59  07006KT  28.7F  SNOW   13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043   13:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0160123/0000Z  60  06008KT  28.5F  SNOW   11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071   12:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---160123/0100Z  61  05010KT  28.1F  SNOW   14:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067   12:1|  2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18  100|  0|  0160123/0200Z  62  05012KT  27.8F  SNOW   12:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071   12:1|  3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25  100|  0|  0160123/0300Z  63  05014KT  27.2F  SNOW   12:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072   12:1|  4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32  100|  0|  0160123/0400Z  64  05014KT  26.5F  SNOW   13:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085   12:1|  5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41  100|  0|  0160123/0500Z  65  05015KT  26.1F  SNOW   11:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106   12:1|  6.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51  100|  0|  0160123/0600Z  66  05014KT  25.8F  SNOW    8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.109   12:1|  7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.62  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---160123/0700Z  67  04013KT  25.8F  SNOW    7:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148   11:1|  8.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77  100|  0|  0160123/0800Z  68  04013KT  26.0F  SNOW    9:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115   10:1|  9.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.89  100|  0|  0160123/0900Z  69  03014KT  26.0F  SNOW    8:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.147   10:1| 10.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.03  100|  0|  0160123/1000Z  70  03016KT  25.4F  SNOW   12:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.163   10:1| 12.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.20  100|  0|  0160123/1100Z  71  02017KT  25.1F  SNOW   13:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.174   11:1| 14.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.37  100|  0|  0160123/1200Z  72  03017KT  24.9F  SNOW    5:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.169   10:1| 15.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.54  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---160123/1300Z  73  02017KT  26.1F  SNOW    6:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106   10:1| 16.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.65  100|  0|  0160123/1400Z  74  02018KT  26.1F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030   10:1| 16.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.68  100|  0|  0160123/1500Z  75  02017KT  26.3F  SNOW    5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029   10:1| 16.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.70  100|  0|  0160123/1600Z  76  02017KT  26.5F  SNOW    5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043   10:1| 16.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.75  100|  0|  0160123/1700Z  77  02018KT  26.3F  SNOW    5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031   10:1| 16.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.78  100|  0|  0160123/1800Z  78  01018KT  26.3F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    9:1| 17.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.80  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---160123/1900Z  79  01018KT  26.0F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    9:1| 17.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.83  100|  0|  0160123/2000Z  80  36018KT  26.0F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    9:1| 17.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.85  100|  0|  0160123/2100Z  81  36017KT  26.1F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029    9:1| 17.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.88  100|  0|  0160123/2200Z  82  36017KT  26.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    9:1| 17.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.91  100|  0|  0160123/2300Z  83  36017KT  26.9F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    9:1| 17.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.93  100|  0|  0160124/0000Z  84  35016KT  27.0F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    9:1| 18.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.96  100|  0|  0

[WxMan1]

Just finished my part of the latest CWG article. Doing it I noticed this sounding. Got the old unstable layer you look for. Thundersnow?

Thundersnow_Jan_2016.png

Absolutely Wes. Negative theta-e lapse rates there. Elevated instability that's more upright than slantwise.

This is key -- it's around 9-12Z Sat when the chances for a flip will be highest. If we can counteract with convection, UVVs, high rates, and good column cooling, we'll hang on to heavy snow longer, which would be key until the deepening low moves far enough offshore where pcpn type won't be an issue anymore.

[Mama2Many]

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1013 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
1013 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW.

* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH SATURDAY AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S. TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

USE THIS ADVANCE NOTICE TO PLAN AHEAD! ADJUST TRAVEL PLANS...AND
PLANNED ACTIVITIES. STOCK UP ON NECESSITIES. MAKE PLANS FOR
ELDERLY FAMILY AND THOSE MOST AT RISK. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS. USE THIS TIME TO
MINIMIZE IMPACT ON YOU...YOUR FAMILY...AND YOUR COMMUNITY

[weathercoins]

Lol at Accuweather/USAToday still having Baltimore in the 6-12" range. Just lol. 

[Ravens94]

GFS amping up also this run
Loaded with RH

[yoda]

~1002mb SLP in N AL at 48 on 12z GFS

 

closed h5 low right behind at hr 45 on RaleighWx maps

[caviman2201]

Its really sad that we lost so much archival stuff from 09-10 after the Eastern fiasco...

[weathercoins]

TerpWeather tweeted this - fascinating stuff (before today). 

[Expat]

arrival at 18z

[Fozz]

Lol at Accuweather/USAToday still having Baltimore in the 6-12" range. Just lol. 

 

That makes no sense and dare I say it is blatantly irresponsible to forecast totals this low then there is so confidence of 18"+. 

 

Doesn't mean they should call for 18-30+ just yet, but certainly 12-24" or something along those lines that gives room to steadily raise the totals if the need arises.

[yoda]

Transfer just about complete at hr 60

 

63 -- 1000mb SLP at ILM

[Ravens94]

63 coastal looks to be taking over much faster this run 

[RickinBaltimore]

What is ILM?

Wilmington, NC

[yuki neko]

What is ILM?

Wilmington, NC I think

[BTRWx]

93 had a blizzard watch.  i "think" 96 did as well.  the 2nd feb storm of 2010 did (or blizzard warning), but i think that was in part due to the winds on top of the snow already received from snowmaggedon.  

Were those products available back during those storms?

[EastCoast NPZ]

TY for the ILM.  Meant to post it in banter.

[caviman2201]

Wow... look at that comma head on GFS @ 66

[yoda]

992 just E of HSE at 69

 

992 just east of VA/NC border at 72

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Snowmap has 16 inches down by 7am Saturday for DC.

[bmorelights]

Searching the archives via https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/ I find no blizzard watch issued by LWX prior to the one issued today, but the quality of the archives was improved in 2002, so my research is inconclusive.

 

93 had a blizzard watch.  i "think" 96 did as well.  the 2nd feb storm of 2010 did (or blizzard warning), but i think that was in part due to the winds on top of the snow already received from snowmaggedon.  

[yuki neko]

Deform band cranks hr 75 3"/hr rates over DC

 

Edit: Remarkable consistency in setting up that band run to run

[yoda]

Captured at 78?

[weathercoins]

Highest snow totals are going to push slightly further north this run I think

[Ravens94]

GFS HAS A AMAZING DEFORM http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/gfs/current/12z/GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ma_f78.png

[caviman2201]

This is going to be a huge run... cold and wet...

[Snowman.]

DCA jackpot

[usedtobe]

MUch colder run than the NAM. No mix problems even for me.  Great banding which won't be in the right place. 

[The Dude]

Were those products available back during those storms?

 

1993 definitely had a blizzard warning, but I don't recall a watch.  But that was a long time ago, so the memory may be faulty...

[Expat]

Looks like front end thump isn't as powerful as past runs but deform band makes up or it?

[SLPressure]

Wilmington, NC

http://www.expedia.com/daily/airports/AirportCodes.asp

This may help because a lot of airport codes are used here.