ers-wxman1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm sure within the obs thread we'll be posting images of the 88D's CC (correlation coefficient) if/when the mix zone gets close. That product works like a charm. Will definitely get good use of that product and the mixing layer depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 When was our last Blizzar Watch? I don't remember if 2010 had one. Good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 When was our last Blizzar Watch? I don't remember if 2010 had one. Good times! Just saw on Twitter that the last blizzard watch for Balt/Washington was just over 3 years ago Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hey guys quick question, did the 2009-10 storms have as much modeled QPF as the models are showing for this storm for your region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just saw on Twitter that the last blizzard watch for Balt/Washington was just over 3 years ago Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Interesting. Thank you! Must have been a bust then. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just saw on Twitter that the last blizzard watch for Balt/Washington was just over 3 years ago Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Which storm? I don't remember a blizzard watch for even the 09-10 storms (though they did have blizzard warnings, especially Feb 10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hey guys quick question, did the 2009-10 storms have as much modeled QPF as the models are showing for this storm for your region? Yeah, I remember some truly biblical RGEM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hey guys quick question, did the 2009-10 storms have as much modeled QPF as the models are showing for this storm for your region? Feb 5/6 had some big time numbers, but I don't remember seeing >3" QPF as frequently as with this storm. Ian and others have some of the model runs saved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Snowing by 18z Friday in DC per NAM. What NAM are you looking at? I don't see that at all. Maybe 3pm, probably later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Which storm? I don't remember a blizzard watch for even the 09-10 storms (though they did have blizzard warnings, especially Feb 10) Feb 2010 issued during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hey guys quick question, did the 2009-10 storms have as much modeled QPF as the models are showing for this storm for your region? My guess is no. eta: At least we didn't get the modeled qpf. I read your question wrong. Similar modeled qpf for this storm forsure if not a little higher! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hey guys quick question, did the 2009-10 storms have as much modeled QPF as the models are showing for this storm for your region? If you go back to the thread marking the anniversary of the 2/6 bliz, Ian posted some model loops. But the short answer is they were all in the 2.5" range back then I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hey guys quick question, did the 2009-10 storms have as much modeled QPF as the models are showing for this storm for your region? Maybe a stray run or two, but nothing like this..............this is across the board, every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Feb 2010 issued during the storm. That was a warning though. I don't think LWX ever has issued a blizzard watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Which storm? I don't remember a blizzard watch for even the 09-10 storms (though they did have blizzard warnings, especially Feb 10)Looks like it was for the Christmas 2012 storm. Might not have been a blizzard warning in the cities, but a different part of CWASent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 That was a warning though. I don't think LWX ever has issued a blizzard watch. correct. This is their first for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Supplemental soundings starting today at 18Z/06Z. Central Region: Entire Region starting 18 UTC 20 Jan - 06Z 22 Jan. Southern Region: From Texas eastward starting 18 UTC 21 Jan - 18 UTC 22 Jan. Eastern Region: RNK, GSO, MHX, IAD, PIT, OKX, ALB, CHH Starting 18z 21 Jan - 06z Jan 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like it was for the Christmas 2012 storm. Might not have been a blizzard watch in the cities, but a different part of CWA Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I vaguely remember that. This is definitely the first watch I've seen through the corridor. 2010 was an upgrade during the event. Seeing a blizzard watch 2 days in advance is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The NAM typically has a disconnect between the reflectivity forecasts and QPF in snow situations. For whatever reason, the model develops the leading snow but has trouble getting it to the ground. Using the reflectivity products often works better for timing than QPF. What NAM are you looking at? I don't see that at all. Maybe 3pm, probably later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Snowing by 18z Friday in DC per NAM. What NAM are you looking at? I don't see that at all. Maybe 3pm, probably later. What time locally do you think 18z is, just out of interest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wasn't that '93? December 1992 had tremendous coastal flooding in New York City, Long Island and all along the Long Island Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The NAM typically has a disconnect between the reflectivity forecasts and QPF in snow situations. For whatever reason, the model develops the leading snow but has trouble getting it to the ground. Using the reflectivity products often works better for timing than QPF. Thanks for the heads up. I was just using the previous 6 precip and the sim radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What time locally do you think 18z is, just out of interest... EST is 5 hours behind Zulu time. So 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 December 1992 had tremendous coastal flooding in New York City, Long Island and all along the Long Island Sound. Thanks, Amazing how so many big Nor'easters seem to occur in back-to-back seasons! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 93 had a blizzard watch. i "think" 96 did as well. the 2nd feb storm of 2010 did (or blizzard warning), but i think that was in part due to the winds on top of the snow already received from snowmaggedon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What time locally do you think 18z is, just out of interest... 1 pm.........just out of interest. Can you point me to what you used to make that statement. If it is composite reflectivity, I get it. I never look at that. I don't think it's useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The NAM typically has a disconnect between the reflectivity forecasts and QPF in snow situations. For whatever reason, the model develops the leading snow but has trouble getting it to the ground. Using the reflectivity products often works better for timing than QPF. Just finished my part of the latest CWG article. Doing it I noticed this sounding. Got the old unstable layer you look for. Thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 1 pm.........just out of interest. Can you point me to what you used to make that statement. If it is composite reflectivity, I get it. I never look at that. I don't think it's useful. Aargh, my math sucks, I was doing 18-5=15. Yes, composite reflectivity. A lot of virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Thanks, Amazing how so many big Nor'easters seem to occur in back-to-back seasons! March 1993 was the same winter (1992-93). Those two storms were the highlights. This looks like it could be a memorable storm to be mentioned along some of the others, both for huge snowfall amounts in the Mid-Atlantic and coastal/tidal flooding along the coastline. It will probably damage some of the areas that were repaired from Sandy. One home not far from where I live used to have a dock that went out to the Long Island Sound. The homeowner hesitated to rebuild it following Sandy, but finally did so last summer. Hopefully, it will hold up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just finished my part of the latest CWG article. Doing it I noticed this sounding. Got the old unstable layer you look for. Thundersnow? Thundersnow_Jan_2016.png Oooh... that looks good. I can't imagine there not being thundersnow somewhere around here. I don't think there has been any storm with a phase/capture like this that doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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