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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #3 - No Banter


stormtracker

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Just saw on Twitter that the last blizzard watch for Balt/Washington was just over 3 years ago

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Which storm? I don't remember a blizzard watch for even the 09-10 storms (though they did have blizzard warnings, especially Feb 10)

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Hey guys quick question, did the 2009-10 storms have as much modeled QPF as the models are showing for this storm for your region?

My guess is no.

 

eta: At least we didn't get the modeled qpf. I read your question wrong. Similar modeled qpf for this storm forsure if not a little higher!

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Hey guys quick question, did the 2009-10 storms have as much modeled QPF as the models are showing for this storm for your region?

If you go back to the thread marking the anniversary of the 2/6 bliz, Ian posted some model loops. But the short answer is they were all in the 2.5" range back then I recall.

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Supplemental soundings starting today at 18Z/06Z.

 

Central Region:
Entire Region starting 18 UTC 20 Jan - 06Z 22 Jan.
 
Southern Region:
From Texas eastward starting 18 UTC 21 Jan - 18 UTC 22 Jan. 
 
Eastern Region:
RNK, GSO, MHX, IAD, PIT, OKX, ALB, CHH
Starting 18z 21 Jan - 06z Jan 23
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Looks like it was for the Christmas 2012 storm. Might not have been a blizzard watch in the cities, but a different part of CWA

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I vaguely remember that. This is definitely the first watch I've seen through the corridor. 2010 was an upgrade during the event. Seeing a blizzard watch 2 days in advance is awesome. 

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   The NAM typically has a disconnect between the reflectivity forecasts and QPF in snow situations.   For whatever reason, the model develops the leading snow but has trouble getting it to the ground.   Using the reflectivity products often works better for timing than QPF.

 

 

What NAM are you looking at?  

 

I don't see that at all.  Maybe 3pm, probably later.

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   The NAM typically has a disconnect between the reflectivity forecasts and QPF in snow situations.   For whatever reason, the model develops the leading snow but has trouble getting it to the ground.   Using the reflectivity products often works better for timing than QPF.

Thanks for the heads up.  I was just using the previous 6 precip and the sim radar.

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   The NAM typically has a disconnect between the reflectivity forecasts and QPF in snow situations.   For whatever reason, the model develops the leading snow but has trouble getting it to the ground.   Using the reflectivity products often works better for timing than QPF.

 

Just finished my part of the latest CWG article.  Doing it I noticed this sounding. Got the old unstable layer you look for.  Thundersnow?

 

post-70-0-84265400-1453303928_thumb.png

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1 pm.........just out of interest.

 

Can you point me to what you used to make that statement.  If it is composite reflectivity, I get it.  I never look at that.  I don't think it's useful.

 

Aargh, my math sucks, I was doing 18-5=15.

 

Yes, composite reflectivity.  A lot of virga?

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Thanks, Amazing how so many big Nor'easters seem to occur in back-to-back seasons!

March 1993 was the same winter (1992-93). Those two storms were the highlights. This looks like it could be a memorable storm to be mentioned along some of the others, both for huge snowfall amounts in the Mid-Atlantic and coastal/tidal flooding along the coastline. It will probably damage some of the areas that were repaired from Sandy.

 

One home not far from where I live used to have a dock that went out to the Long Island Sound. The homeowner hesitated to rebuild it following Sandy, but finally did so last summer. Hopefully, it will hold up.

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Just finished my part of the latest CWG article.  Doing it I noticed this sounding. Got the old unstable layer you look for.  Thundersnow?

 

attachicon.gifThundersnow_Jan_2016.png

 

Oooh... that looks good. 

 

I can't imagine there not being thundersnow somewhere around here. I don't think there has been any storm with a phase/capture like this that doesn't.

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