snowfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 By 0Z, 2.2" in DC. 2.0" at BWI. On 1/21/2016 at 6:06 PM, snowfan said: 1.8" in DC by 18Z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:07 PM, Ian said: a little less precip. PANIC! I'm hugging the para anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:08 PM, Bob Chill said: I'm hugging the para anyways euro is often too dry at close range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Euro tends to reduce QPF near game time even in some of the biggies. Honestly UK and GFS have kept hiking it up, and I love the h5 depiction. Final Call with that in mind: DCA: 23.4" BWI: 24.2" IAD: 27.8" RIC: 14.5" FDK: 28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 26" at 7 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 euro is kinda a letdown IMO. cut down qpf everywhere and really shaved it along the northern MD zones...droped westminster from 2.2 to 1.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:09 PM, Ian said: euro is often too dry at close range. A lot of models are jacking the DC area in general for the population centers. Don't see that too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:10 PM, psuhoffman said: euro is kinda a letdown IMO. cut down qpf everywhere and really shaved it along the northern MD zones...droped westminster from 2.2 to 1.4. What about out towards MRB and FDK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Fwww NMM looks like .75" QPF by 7 AM, ARW looks like 1.25" QPF by 7 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 QPF DCA 2.2 BWI 2.1 IAD 2.1 OKV 1.9 JYO 1.9 Balt City 1.9 MRB 1.5 FDK 1.7 Westminster 1.4 Wes 2.2 PHL 1.0 NYC 0.5 Mapgirl 1.8 Phineas 1.8 Wilmington 1.5 HGR 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 euro went east by maybe 30-40 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:10 PM, psuhoffman said: euro is kinda a letdown IMO. cut down qpf everywhere and really shaved it along the northern MD zones...droped westminster from 2.2 to 1.4. I don't think it matters much...There will be QPF spikes and banding on the fringes of the jackpot areas..always is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:07 PM, Ian said: a little less precip. PANIC! Its fine if your Baltimore south. models are really tightening things up north of there. Nothing misses Baltimore south though but the GGEM/Euro would imply the northern MD counties get a more moderate snowfall not the 24-30" the GFS/UK/NAM would imply. Recent climo would suggest we do ok though, but always waiting for the time when that fails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 WxUsaF 26" right over your house at the end of the storm. It showed 29" last night, so basically just noise until you get into Northern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:10 PM, psuhoffman said: euro is kinda a letdown IMO. cut down qpf everywhere and really shaved it along the northern MD zones...droped westminster from 2.2 to 1.4. lol. Not laughing at the cut, but at you doing the typical panic when we all know you'll jackpot. Never change. Never change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:11 PM, Solo2 said: What about out towards MRB and FDK? MRB: 1.5 FDK: 1.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:12 PM, WestminsterDeathband said: QPF DCA 2.2 BWI 2.1 IAD 2.1 OKV 1.9 JYO 1.9 Balt City 1.9 MRB 1.5 FDK 1.7 Westminster 1.4 Wes 2.2 PHL 1.0 NYC 0.5 EZF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtogo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RIC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What about Annapolis? I'm guessing around 2.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:09 PM, UVVmet84 said: Euro tends to reduce QPF near game time even in some of the biggies. Honestly UK and GFS have kept hiking it up, and I love the h5 depiction. Final Call with that in mind: DCA: 23.4" BWI: 24.2" IAD: 27.8" RIC: 14.5" FDK: 28" I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:13 PM, psuhoffman said: Its fine if your Baltimore south. models are really tightening things up north of there. Nothing misses Baltimore south though but the GGEM/Euro would imply the northern MD counties get a more moderate snowfall not the 24-30" the GFS/UK/NAM would imply. Recent climo would suggest we do ok though, but always waiting for the time when that fails you complain every storm and always do well, so I guess stick with what works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:15 PM, Ltrain said: What about Annapolis? I'm guessing around 2.0" Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We need a common template for Euro totals now that the images aren't allowed. Needs to cover spots region-wide so we can avoid all the individual asks. Interesting to see the Euro tick East again, it's been flirting with that on and off over the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:10 PM, psuhoffman said: euro is kinda a letdown IMO. cut down qpf everywhere and really shaved it along the northern MD zones...droped westminster from 2.2 to 1.4. Only gives us .10 between 0z friday and 6z saturday. That looks a little too low in my opinion. I still wouldn't be too concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:12 PM, WestminsterDeathband said: QPF DCA 2.2 BWI 2.1 IAD 2.1 OKV 1.9 JYO 1.9 Balt City 1.9 MRB 1.5 FDK 1.7 Westminster 1.4 Wes 2.2 PHL 1.0 NYC 0.5 Mapgirl 1.8 Phineas 1.8 Wilmington 1.5 HGR 1.5 wonder if the dual low structure messed with it this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 EZF 2.1 Annapolis 1.9 RIC 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:13 PM, stormtracker said: lol. Not laughing at the cut, but at you doing the typical panic when we all know you'll jackpot. Never change. Never change. We all have our roles to play. It usually works out up here because I often average much higher ratios and get oragraphic lift assisted qpf totals. But for those two to work I still have to get into the deform band and that back edge is getting a little closer then I would like on some of the euro runs...seems about every other one actually wants to sink south and get me close to the north edge. I am fairly confident it wont be a problem, we all know how it usually goes, but in the back of my mind the little voice does keep saying "you know one of these times its not going to work". There have been examples of storms where DC got 20" and up here only got a moderate snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:19 PM, WestminsterDeathband said: you complain every storm and always do well, so I guess stick with what works the usual megaband people need a pre storm whining thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:20 PM, Ian said: wonder if the dual low structure messed with it this run. In line with UKmet, GGEM....I think Euro/GGEM/Ukmet is good QPF guidance.....dont really trust NAM/GFS....I still think 0z runs tonight are important... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:21 PM, psuhoffman said: We all have our roles to play. It usually works out up here because I often average much higher ratios and get oragraphic lift assisted qpf totals. But for those two to work I still have to get into the deform band and that back edge is getting a little closer then I would like on some of the euro runs...seems about every other one actually wants to sink south and get me close to the north edge. I am fairly confident it wont be a problem, we all know how it usually goes, but in the back of my mind the little voice does keep saying "you know one of these times its not going to work". There have been examples of storms where DC got 20" and up here only got a moderate snowfall... you might not jackpot, but I think still pretty well...If you get 18" and Dulles gets 28", I guess it isnt ideal, but you cant jackpot every storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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