mappy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:03 PM, Bob Chill said: It's going to be awful tough to measure this one either way. Ratios will be an interesting topic the next 24 hours. It's cold at the start but WAA precip is always higher density than deform/CCB. I could see the first half of the precip being around 10:1. After that it gets interesting. 12-15:1 is definitely possible. DSGZ looks pretty prime and 700mb plots are rockin. i agree. just trying to dial back some of this unnecessary hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:07 PM, AlaskaETC said: Toss climo out the window with this storm... Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:03 PM, Bob Chill said: It's going to be awful tough to measure this one either way. Ratios will be an interesting topic the next 24 hours. It's cold at the start but WAA precip is always higher density than deform/CCB. I could see the first half of the precip being around 10:1. After that it gets interesting. 12-15:1 is definitely possible. DSGZ looks pretty prime and 700mb plots are rockin. I think that's reasonable. Tomorrow in the deform is where we could get some fluff. Time to really look at soundings. If someone has bufkit, I'd be interested to see snow growth info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:07 PM, mappy said: i agree. just trying to dial back some of this unnecessary hype It's going to snow. A lot. That's hype enough. I apologize for reacting so quickly to that first map, that just blew me away. Over 2 feet blows me away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:07 PM, mappy said: i agree. just trying to dial back some of this unnecessary hype DC isn't getting 4 ft but 30" totals in the metro areas aren't out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:03 PM, Bob Chill said: It's going to be awful tough to measure this one either way. Ratios will be an interesting topic the next 24 hours. It's cold at the start but WAA precip is always higher density than deform/CCB. I could see the first half of the precip being around 10:1. After that it gets interesting. 12-15:1 is definitely possible. DSGZ looks pretty prime and 700mb plots are rockin. And with the way some people "measure", there's no telling what kind of ridiculous numbers we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:08 PM, WxUSAF said: I think that's reasonable. Tomorrow in the deform is where we could get some fluff. Time to really look at soundings. If someone has bufkit, I'd be interested to see snow growth info. i do not, but pivotalweather.com allows you to click and pull up soundings during the model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Anyone see the NAM 4K? Insane.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:07 PM, WestminsterDeathband said: Why? Eh, the dynamics are going to ignore a lot of traditional boundaries. Just my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:10 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: And with the way some people "measure", there's no telling what kind of ridiculous numbers we will see. Eyeball and not doing a proper snow board and clearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:04 PM, mappy said: Look, we have been over this before... not a single person here can say what the ratios will be like through the entire storm. stay with 10:1 and hope for higher, don't assume it will be 12:1 the entire time. Come on... there are a ton of people viewing this thread looking for information and then there is you and fozz saying 33" for your backyards when that isn't even remotely close to be shown on the models. They can see the same maps we are commenting on, if they are too dumb to interpret that the IWM uses the Kuchera method and WXBell uses 10:1 it is not my fault. ETA: 27" and 33" inches is remotely close btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:14 PM, ravensrule said: They can see the same maps we are commenting on, if they are too dumb to interpret that the IWM uses the Kuchera method and WXBell uses 10:1 it is not my fault. Are you serious with this? Just dial it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Haven't seen discussion about the models on wind speeds. I'm assuming they are pretty consistent too across products, but haven't seen anyone focused on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:14 PM, ravensrule said: They can see the same maps we are commenting on, if they are too dumb to interpret that the IWM uses the Kuchera method and WXBell uses 10:1 it is not my fault. ETA: 27" and 33" inches is remotely close btw But it's not dumb to use maps that knowingly use a higher ratio than what we typically see? ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:06 PM, EastCoast NPZ said: The GFS loves to place those dry fingers on the lee sides of the mountains. Has done it on almost every run. While we usually do get shadowed here in the valley, it's not usually so significant with south originating storms. I find this a little odd that t keeps appearing. Other models haven't seem to show this nearly as starkly. No way that happens with any kind of easterly flow, IMO. Never does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What were the ratios of IAD and Leesburg in Feb 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:08 PM, WxUSAF said: I think that's reasonable. Tomorrow in the deform is where we could get some fluff. Time to really look at soundings. If someone has bufkit, I'd be interested to see snow growth info. Man, these are some sick 700vv panels. The period from 9z-18z on Saturday is rockin. Cantore might get hit by lightning. 12z saturday sounding @ DCA shows some instability. 9z 12z 18z 12z sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:12 PM, H2O said: Eyeball and not doing a proper snow board and clearing And lying. We had some numbers floating around this forum last year that I know were BS. It makes data collection, like MG's map, difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 To supplement in another factor...enhanced severe weather threat over the Deep South today. Tornadoes, damaging winds. This shows just how vigorous the upper level energy truly is. All of this will cause explosive coastal development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:18 PM, Fozz said: What were the ratios of IAD and Leesburg in Feb 2010? Officially, IAD was less than 10:1-- 32.4" on 3.45" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:18 PM, Fozz said: What were the ratios of IAD and Leesburg in Feb 2010? The CoCoRahs stations close to IAD were near 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:16 PM, H2O said: But it's not dumb to use maps that knowingly use a higher ratio than what we typically see? ok Every weather expert, which you and i are definitely not have said we should see higher than 10:1. Take it as you wish. No need to bicker over 5" difference like i just committed a violent crime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:43 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: I'm guessing they see increased likelihood of stronger winds there now? Probably going with the idea of less sleet. If there was a changeover to sleet, not much of a problem with visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:11 PM, AlaskaETC said: Eh, the dynamics are going to ignore a lot of traditional boundaries. Just my take. I agree it will have its own imprint and identity. But we need to consider where banding will set up, and we know from experience the models won't always get that right. I'm weighing the GFS/NAM just a little for now, and hugging the Euro/Para euro combo...but that's just me...I'll blend in all the guidance more later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:16 PM, Don Cherry said: Haven't seen discussion about the models on wind speeds. I'm assuming they are pretty consistent too across products, but haven't seen anyone focused on it. Models are pretty consistent with gusts in 30's and 40's during daylight hours on Sat. Some 60's near and over the bay. Wes might need to weld his deck chairs to the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:21 PM, H2O said: Oh i know. trust me, i know we're going to have to start a thread about snow measurement later or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 guys, take the 10:1 stuff to banter. including you Andy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:24 PM, WestminsterDeathband said: we're going to have to start a thread about snow measurement later or tomorrow. as in how to properly do it? I'm down for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:23 PM, H2O said: See the above posts. More than 10:1 is just rare in this area no matter the storm For purposes of forecasting, I'd probably use 11:1 (climo) assuming no mixing. We won't waste any QPF on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here's my updated forecast. I'll have a final update this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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