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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #3 - No Banter


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  On 1/21/2016 at 3:18 AM, mitchnick said:

It's the only thing out on the RGEM, but here's a link to the vertical motion map at 48 hrs....I see no problem with it

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/770_100.gif

Just came out

48 hr. precip map

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=048&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

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  On 1/21/2016 at 3:12 AM, DCAlexandria said:

I feel like the CWG has gone mainstream, and is less likely to make a higher end call even if guidance supports it.

 

This is unfortunately correct....they really go conservative to avoid screams about a bust.

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  On 1/21/2016 at 3:18 AM, mitchnick said:

It's the only thing out on the RGEM, but here's a link to the vertical motion map at 48 hrs....I see no problem with it

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/770_100.gif

 

The meteocentre maps has the transfer ongoing as of 48H (Friday 7pm)...it looks like the transfer would be complete by the next panel, popping off the SC coast, due south of ILM.  Through 7pm, about 0.25" has fallen with a slug of precip inbound.

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  On 1/21/2016 at 3:19 AM, mitchnick said:

This and the VV map are eye candy. Classic MA mauling incoming on those maps.

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  On 1/21/2016 at 3:22 AM, nj2va said:

The meteocentre maps has the transfer ongoing as of 48H (Friday 7pm)...it looks like the transfer would be complete by the next panel, popping off the SC coast, due south of ILM.  Through 7pm, about 0.25" has fallen with a slug of precip inbound.

The 6Z RGEM goes until 60 hours so in the morning we will know everything.

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  On 1/21/2016 at 3:28 AM, Tenman Johnson said:

Question

By all radar representation at 8pm this clipper was to be out of here by 9.

Does its slowness to depart in any way indicate that the big snow system will also be slow moving?

Different so I would not compare. It does show models do not get everything right!
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HaHa! 0Z NAM Cobb for MRB. Last 5 hours of precip:

 

160124/0100Z 73 35017KT 24.3F SNOW 11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.078 11:1| 31.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.89 100| 0| 0
160124/0200Z 74 35017KT 24.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 11:1| 32.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.95 100| 0| 0
160124/0300Z 75 35016KT 24.3F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 11:1| 32.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.98 100| 0| 0
160124/0400Z 76 34016KT 24.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 11:1| 32.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.00 100| 0| 0
160124/0500Z 77 34016KT 23.6F SNOW 14:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 11:1| 33.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.05 100| 0| 0
160124/0600Z 78 34016KT 23.1F SNOW 18:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 11:1| 34.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.09 100| 0| 0

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  On 1/21/2016 at 3:20 AM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Let's forget the 2' vs 3' arguments for a minute.....this has been a remarkable performance by the models. They latched on to this thing IIRC on Friday afternoon and have held it like a rock since. Yeah some shifts here and there but wow.

This is at least the second time you've congratulated the models tonight. That's like congratulating a football team on its win before the game has started! Let's see what actually pans out before congratulating a model. I think you could be singing a different tune when this turns into a Philly special and we get a crusty 6 inches...

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  On 1/21/2016 at 3:28 AM, Tenman Johnson said:

Question

By all radar representation at 8pm this clipper was to be out of here by 9.

Does its slowness to depart in any way indicate that the big snow system will also be slow moving?

no, this snow moving slower has no relation to why the large storm will be long duration.

the storm this weekend is progged mostly to get captured...the upper level low gets cut off from the flow somewhat and then its progged to do something at just the perfect time...the perfect time to turn an 8-12 storm that's 16 hours into a potentially 30+ hour storm of much greater snowfall.

the cutoff upper low captures the mid and surface lows and tugs them out of the flow as they try to stack. thus slowing them/the storm down.

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