SabreAce33 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:07 PM, Ellinwood said: Ready to rock and roll. 20150122-24_MAsnow_initial.png http://madusweather.com/2016/01/winter-storm-threat-january-22-24-initial-call/ Always look forward to your maps. Nice first call, good blend of models and climo (bias to blue ridge a bit?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:07 PM, Ellinwood said: Ready to rock and roll. 20150122-24_MAsnow_initial.png http://madusweather.com/2016/01/winter-storm-threat-january-22-24-initial-call/ Nice call on your maps... and though I hate to say it lol, your maps are usually spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Great map as always Ewood. Makes complete sense given all data today. And a special thanks for graciously placing my yard in 24"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:07 PM, Ellinwood said: Ready to rock and roll. 20150122-24_MAsnow_initial.png http://madusweather.com/2016/01/winter-storm-threat-january-22-24-initial-call/ Nice map. I doubt you'll have to do much adjusting, it already looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:07 PM, Ellinwood said: Ready to rock and roll. 20150122-24_MAsnow_initial.png http://madusweather.com/2016/01/winter-storm-threat-january-22-24-initial-call/ Awesome. Hope you're right. Good luck. Weather content: Euro 850 winds peak over Delmarva-Fredericksburg at around 80kts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:07 PM, Ellinwood said: Ready to rock and roll. 20150122-24_MAsnow_initial.png http://madusweather.com/2016/01/winter-storm-threat-january-22-24-initial-call/ Great map like always. I actually find your maps to be among the most accurate i follow. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:07 PM, Ellinwood said: Ready to rock and roll. 20150122-24_MAsnow_initial.png http://madusweather.com/2016/01/winter-storm-threat-january-22-24-initial-call/ Here's the map I'll pay the most attention to. Always does a good job with snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 15z SREFS look decent... QPF looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:07 PM, Ellinwood said: Ready to rock and roll. 20150122-24_MAsnow_initial.png http://madusweather.com/2016/01/winter-storm-threat-january-22-24-initial-call/ What's the reasoning behind pushing the 8-12" zone so far SE? I don't think a single model has suggested this over the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:07 PM, Ellinwood said: Ready to rock and roll. 20150122-24_MAsnow_initial.png http://madusweather.com/2016/01/winter-storm-threat-january-22-24-initial-call/ Great map Mark. Love the call across the board. And thanks for going 2'+ in Germantown while I work during the storm haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 6:42 PM, Ian said: Watch compared to 09/10 blizz warnings http://m.imgur.com/a/crlLe also, i saw on twitter that there was indeed a blizzard watch for 93. nws confirmed it on fb: https://www.facebook.com/NWSBaltWash/posts/984787631588053 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:11 PM, Bob Chill said: Great map as always Ewood. Makes complete sense given all data today. And a special thanks for graciously placing my yard in 24"+ Only makes sense since we share backyards now. On 1/20/2016 at 7:15 PM, MillvilleWx said: Great map Mark. Love the call across the board. And thanks for going 2'+ in Germantown while I work during the storm haha I will be stuck in my office in Germantown through most of the event (two shifts), so here's hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:07 PM, Ellinwood said: Ready to rock and roll. 20150122-24_MAsnow_initial.png http://madusweather.com/2016/01/winter-storm-threat-january-22-24-initial-call/ Nice map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:07 PM, Ellinwood said: Ready to rock and roll. 20150122-24_MAsnow_initial.png http://madusweather.com/2016/01/winter-storm-threat-january-22-24-initial-call/ Excellent map, think this might be pretty close to the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 SREF is really wet, plumes are fun to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:31 PM, FairfaxVAsnowlover said: SREF is really wet, plumes are fun to look at Can only imagine. Plumes must have 50" in some of the members lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:07 PM, Ellinwood said: Ready to rock and roll. 20150122-24_MAsnow_initial.png http://madusweather.com/2016/01/winter-storm-threat-january-22-24-initial-call/ This map looks spot on...great job...as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:35 PM, ers-wxman1 said: Can only imagine. Plumes must have 50" in some of the members lol Based on 15z SREF: Ends at 06z 1/24 DCA: 38.68 inch max Mean of 16.08 inches IAD: 40.96 inch max Mean of 17.4 inches BWI: 34.87 inch max with Mean of 14.24 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:40 PM, FairfaxVAsnowlover said: Based on 15z SREF: Ends at 06z 1/24 DCA: 38.68 inch max Mean of 16.08 inches IAD: 40.96 inch max Mean of 17.4 inches BWI: 34.87 inch max with Mean of 14.24 inches If you check the 3 hr snowfall, there are some outlandish solutions.... member MPB1 had a 3 hr period of 9.34" at KIAD at 09z... a lot of 15z SREF members have 2"+ hr rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I pulled SSTs and compared today's to February 4, 2010. Curious how much something like this matters? it's quite a bit warmer today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:31 PM, FairfaxVAsnowlover said: SREF is really wet, plumes are fun to look at am I looking at the same SREF, they looked kinda dryer/south compared to the last run to me. But the sref kinda suck bad so I didnt examine them that much just a glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looked at the 12Z Saturday sounding for DC and it showed an even better unstable layer than the NAM. I'll be surprised it someone does not hear thunder in the area Saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:46 PM, usedtobe said: Looked at the 12Z Saturday sounding for DC and it showed an even better unstable layer than the NAM. I'll be surprised it someone does not hear thunder in the area Saturday morning What model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:18 PM, Ellinwood said: Only makes sense since we share backyards now. I will be stuck in my office in Germantown through most of the event (two shifts), so here's hoping. I'll wave at you, but with the snow coming down as hard as forecasted, I doubt you'll be able to see anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:07 PM, Ellinwood said: Ready to rock and roll. 20150122-24_MAsnow_initial.png http://madusweather.com/2016/01/winter-storm-threat-january-22-24-initial-call/ I never know how to act when you don't have me in the 1-2" range. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:43 PM, paulythegun said: I pulled SSTs and compared today's to February 4, 2010. Curious how much something like this matters? it's quite a bit warmer today... I doubt we would have the deepening that's expected. That's my hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:44 PM, psuhoffman said: am I looking at the same SREF, they looked kinda dryer/south compared to the last run to me. But the sref kinda suck bad so I didnt examine them that much just a glance. Call it a gut, but it seems maybe the models have/will start to back down on the notion that it's a long stall off the coast. Lots of stuff moving around between the Pacific and the east coast. Hence, I'll be pretty surprised if the 2.25" or more qpf totals verify in central MD or DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:48 PM, AmericanWxFreak said: What model? I am guessing the GFS? Though it could be the SREFs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 CIPS Analogs for the 12z NAM run for Friday night (0z 1/23) are beyond staggering. Look at the top 4. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2016012012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 7:46 PM, usedtobe said: Looked at the 12Z Saturday sounding for DC and it showed an even better unstable layer than the NAM. I'll be surprised it someone does not hear thunder in the area Saturday morningWe're pulling for the giddy wes +tssn report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.