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Jan 23-24 Storm Banter


ORH_wxman

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So this should work ok for the ski areas up here.  Right now they are getting some good upslope* that looks to keep going for the next day or so.  Later this week, even though they won't be getting in on any of the action from the big storm, their target markets will be, which will hopefully put skiing on the minds of the folks down there.  I've often heard that the best form of advertising for VT ski areas is a foot of snow in Boston, NYC, Hartford etc.

 

*Edit: At least here in N. Vermont.  Not sure if much is happening at the S. Vermont areas.

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http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GYX&issuedby=GYX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT

AND SATURDAY. MODELS STILL COMING INTO LINE ON TRACK AND

INTENSITY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT TREND HAS BEEN TAKING THIS SYSTEM

FARTHER SOUTH. NEW ECMWF NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN 2 TO 4

INCHES WORTH OF TOTAL SNOWFALL...MAINLY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS.

AT THIS POINT WILL BE GOING WITH SUPERBLEND POPS AND MAY BACK OFF

ON THOSE SOMEWHAT.

IN ANY CASE...WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY

AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIRROR

FRIDAYS HIGHS. BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL COME AT SOME POINT

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW IN

COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE

FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE IN THESE AREAS AS JUST A SMALL SHIFT IN

STORM TRACK WOULD BRING HEAVIER PRECIP ONSHORE. WILL HIGHLIGHT

THESE THOUGHTS IN THE HWO BUT WILL ALSO STRESS THE FAIR AMOUNT OF

UNCERTAINTY ATTM.

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http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GYX&issuedby=GYX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT

AND SATURDAY. MODELS STILL COMING INTO LINE ON TRACK AND

INTENSITY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT TREND HAS BEEN TAKING THIS SYSTEM

FARTHER SOUTH. NEW ECMWF NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN 2 TO 4

INCHES WORTH OF TOTAL SNOWFALL...MAINLY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS.

AT THIS POINT WILL BE GOING WITH SUPERBLEND POPS AND MAY BACK OFF

ON THOSE SOMEWHAT.

IN ANY CASE...WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY

AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIRROR

FRIDAYS HIGHS. BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL COME AT SOME POINT

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW IN

COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE

FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE IN THESE AREAS AS JUST A SMALL SHIFT IN

STORM TRACK WOULD BRING HEAVIER PRECIP ONSHORE. WILL HIGHLIGHT

THESE THOUGHTS IN THE HWO BUT WILL ALSO STRESS THE FAIR AMOUNT OF

UNCERTAINTY ATTM.

 

An AFD using 00z data? 

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So this should work ok for the ski areas up here.  Right now they are getting some good upslope* that looks to keep going for the next day or so.  Later this week, even though they won't be getting in on any of the action from the big storm, their target markets will be, which will hopefully put skiing on the minds of the folks down there.  I've often heard that the best form of advertising for VT ski areas is a foot of snow in Boston, NYC, Hartford etc.

 

*Edit: At least here in N. Vermont.  Not sure if much is happening at the S. Vermont areas.

Nope, they don't get that upslope like the NVT resorts do.  Seems they need to mix in a healthy amount of synoptic events/clippers to get their totals. Hence why you see the big discrepancy this year from Jay/Stowe areas down to Killington south towards Mt Snow.

 

But to your point, I wonder if the average person in NYC/DC thinks if they are getting 2ft in NYC, then the mountains must be getting "crushed". This event is already pretty hyped, so maybe they can decipher the main impact areas a little more, but maybe not. 

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So at this point it appears off the table that anywhere in SNE sees rain, even in Cape Cod, MA. 

 

I feel for NNE, feels like forever since they've had a blockbuster

 

Except for south coastal and Downeast, especially the latter.  EPO had something like 180" last winter, with 2 or 3 two-footers.

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