JC-CT Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z Navgem came north, let the trend begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z Navgem came north, let the trend begin! I like you alot better today lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'll be Wario. Bring snacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I like you alot better today lol. I like extreme events just like the rest of you, but I post what I see which is wrong about 80% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I like extreme events just like the rest of you, but I post what I see which is wrong about 80% of the time. 20% accuracy is pretty good. I'm 0-3 this winter and I struck out on 3 pitches every time up in a 17 inning game for the jan 2015 blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 20% accuracy is pretty good. I'm 0-3 this winter and I struck out on 3 pitches every time up in a 17 inning game for the jan 2015 blizz. No, no, I mean 20% accuracy in correctly interpreting model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I just realized how far out this storm really is...It will still be about a day or so before the NAM starts getting precip in here, so we can't even talk about the 4 or 5 inch qpf numbers that it is spitting out. So much time for this to shift enough to bring it back or I guess shift it further away. My hometown in Lancaster, PA has been in the GFS bullseye of and on over the past couple of days, might have to road trip back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This will be in the NAM wheelhouse by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 No, no, I mean 20% accuracy in correctly interpreting model runs. Oh. Well...I've been exposed then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Come on gfs, you schooled euro in jan blizz, do it again. Don't cave you biatch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 with so much potential im surprised they didnt fly a plane in the pacific to get more data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Gfs running...out to 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Come on gfs, you schooled euro in jan blizz, do it again. Don't cave you biatch. I dunno if it "schooled it"...GFS was giving ORH like a foot, lol....34" later. A compromise between the two would have been a good forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I dunno if it "schooled it"...GFS was giving ORH like a foot, lol....34" later. A compromise between the two would have been a good forecast. Everyone thinks the euro shat the bed because OKX rode it at the exclusion of other guidance. The fact is it was maybe 30 miles too far west with the good stuff but in the case of nyc it meant the difference between pedestrian and historic for about 15 million people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS has schooled nothing so far this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 with so much potential im surprised they didnt fly a plane in the pacific to get more data Get the gofundme started and make that dumb dream a reality, bruh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS has schooled nothing so far this winter It did better the other day with the the James coastal/inv trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It did better the other day with the the James coastal/inv trough 1-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS has schooled nothing so far this winter In reality, it's more of a way to break up the wait for the Euro. Kind of like a misleading trailer for an important episode of a television show. Does it hop on a trend that you watch fully become the new expectation when the Euro follows suit? Or is it throwing you off the scent? Stay tuned! You know nothing, Dry Slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 1-10 1-17/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Everyone thinks the euro shat the bed because OKX rode it at the exclusion of other guidance. The fact is it was maybe 30 miles too far west with the good stuff but in the case of nyc it meant the difference between pedestrian and historic for about 15 million people. Yeah the Euro was def too amped, but on an absolute scale, it wasn't a monster bust...as you said, that 30-50 mile bust happened in one of the most populated regions of the country. RGEM really nailed the blizzard once we got to about 36 hours out. We'll see on this one, I'm pretty torn on where this could go over the next few runs....I can see an argument for both north trends and a suppressed trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 1-17/18 lol, It was more it hit 1 out of 10 events not the date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Everyone thinks the euro shat the bed because OKX rode it at the exclusion of other guidance. The fact is it was maybe 30 miles too far west with the good stuff but in the case of nyc it meant the difference between pedestrian and historic for about 15 million people. It was off by more than 15 miles 24hr prior. The western edge of 24" amounts was out to philly wnj north of nyc into sw ct. Cpk didn't even see a foot. I got 8". The 24" amounts were east of the CT River. Philly to ct river in CT is like 200 miles. I had the maps saved at home but I think I deleted them the next day lol. I'm sure Will has them plastered around his home, he'll prob disagree and prove me wrong...it comes down to a imby situation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I dunno if it "schooled it"...GFS was giving ORH like a foot, lol....34" later. A compromise between the two would have been a good forecast. It's an imby thing though. Gfs constantly shoved the best stuff east of ct river and euro didn't budge then started ticking ne inside 48hr. Gfs had me at like 6-10" for days and I didn't believe it lol, of course. In the end, it was right with regards to my patio snowfall amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Everyone thinks the euro shat the bed because OKX rode it at the exclusion of other guidance. The fact is it was maybe 30 miles too far west with the good stuff but in the case of nyc it meant the difference between pedestrian and historic for about 15 million people. OKX thought it was better to forecast a reasonable "worst case scenario" than a more likely scenario. Part of that is I'm pretty sure they'd rather get criticized for overforecasting than deal with the wrath of NYC and the state saying they were unprepared. The latter is much worse for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 It was off by more than 15 miles 24hr prior. The western edge of 24" amounts was out to philly wnj north of nyc into sw ct. Cpk didn't even see a foot. I got 8". The 24" amounts were east of the CT River. Philly to ct river in CT is like 200 miles. I had the maps saved at home but I think I deleted them the next day lol. I'm sure Will has them plastered around his home, he'll prob disagree and prove me wrong...it comes down to a imby situation though. Once we got to inside 36h out, the Euro was focusing more on NYC eastward...maybe the immediate western suburbs of NYC were still in the 24"+ zone...but central/W NJ and back to philly were out of the game by then. You are correct that prior to that it had some insane runs where even philly got smoked. It definitely was not a good performance by the Euro, but I also think it gets exaggerated due to how many people fell on that 50 mile wide bust zone. It was a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm a sucker for these Miller A storms. I think it's because these were good at my former location right on the north shore where I developed my weenie senses. Too bad the huge pressure gradient and all the other impressive things about it don't usually translate to big snows im-current-by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm a sucker for these Miller A storms. I think it's because these were good at my former location right on the north shore where I developed my weenie senses. Too bad the huge pressure gradient and all the other impressive things about it don't usually translate to big snows im-current-by. They are not good for NNE, I have stated this more then once and PF and i have had the discussion where he was confused where he thought A's were better, Its B's that we do well on, Not these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On the outside looking in on this GFS run...congrats to those south of the NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 They are not good for NNE, I have stated this more then once and PF and i have had the discussion where he was confused where he thought A's were better, Its B's that we do well on, Not these Agreed. I used to get more excited for them when lived in the MA and then SNE. There's something about A's that are especially exciting - probably watching them move up the coast and impact all those population centers. Get ready for days of hype as the NYC/DC-based media machine latches onto this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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