#NoPoles Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If you SNEers pull this out of your arse I'm deleting the subforum. so, are you gonna post the 1.2km NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The radio show is pretty enjoyable Wes rocks (and we all know Will does) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If the best thing to come out of this winter is the term "Scooter sh*t streak" I'll be perfectly content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I can't even count how many brain cells I lost from listening to the weenies on Twitter tonight when the NAM came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The NAM has that precip shield into CNE, but there is dry air between 925-750mb in NE MA and Boston area during the day Saturday. What are anyones thoughts on snow quality in CNE and Boston area? A lot of times we won't see snow until we hit like 30dbz because much of it sublimates before hitting the ground. For best snow growth do we need the temp profile around -10C right? Anywhere above -4C clouds are still super-cooled i thought. I've never totally got down soundings for deciphering good dendritic growth vs fine dry crystals and whatnot. I told people at work Boston will be fine during the day Saturday 'cause I thought the NAM would have backed down by now. I'm getting worried... GFS showing QPF gradient slightly farther north in latest run. Still mostly south of the Pike but it's a creepin'. The TROWAL keeps pushing slightly north, and it's well defined pushing right through CT and RI looks like. What are people's thoughts of the NAM coming close to verifying for SNE? My initial forecast (for Boston/North Shore, MA area) was light snow after 7pm or so Sat lasting through early AM Sun but would be dry and light enough for T-2in tops. Tauntons Max Snowfall forecast, I've never seen such a gap between the expected and maximum snowfall before with their maps. Anywhere between Trace and 10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The NAM has that precip shield into CNE, but there is dry air between 925-750mb in NE MA and Boston area during the day Saturday. What are anyones thoughts on snow quality in CNE and Boston area? A lot of times we won't see snow until we hit like 30dbz because much of it sublimates before hitting the ground. For best snow growth do we need the temp profile around -10C right? Anywhere above -4C clouds are still super-cooled i thought. I've never totally got down soundings for deciphering good dendritic growth vs fine dry crystals and whatnot. I told people at work Boston will be fine during the day Saturday 'cause I thought the NAM would have backed down by now. I'm getting worried... GFS showing QPF gradient slightly farther north in latest run. Still mostly south of the Pike but it's a creepin'. The TROWAL keeps pushing slightly north, and it's well defined pushing right through CT and RI looks like. What are people's thoughts of the NAM coming close to verifying for SNE? My initial forecast (for Boston/North Shore, MA area) was light snow after 7pm or so Sat lasting through early AM Sun but would be dry and light enough for T-2in tops. Tauntons Max Snowfall forecast, I've never seen such a gap between the expected and maximum snowfall before with their maps. Anywhere between Trace and 10 inches Stick with your forecast. None of the globals are buying what the NAM/SREFS are selling. If they are still showing the same thing by 12z tomorrow then maybe I'd start getting a bit worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 3+ in QPF on latest NAM run for SE MA? That escalated quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Stick with your forecast. None of the globals are buying what the NAM/SREFS are selling. If they are still showing the same thing by 12z tomorrow then maybe I'd start getting a bit worried Alright thanks. I'm gonna go with something along the lines of a 20% 80% blend of NAM to GFS. I like the 18z GFS run, it's a bit farther north giving south of the Pike 3-6inches or so but not showing 1-3ft for everywhere like the NAM is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 3+ in QPF on latest NAM run for SE MA? That escalated quickly.Hey Ryan...the NAM is pretty much on its own right now. GFS/RGEM/GGEM are still south. It'll probably cave to a large extent at some point. Don't let it sucker you in until the globals jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 00Z GFS holding it's ground with QPF south of the Pike. That's reassuring. I'm torn in these situations. I don't know if I'd rather make an accurate forecast or be wrong and get a foot. Weeny problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hey Ryan...the NAM is pretty much on its own right now. GFS/RGEM/GGEM are still south. It'll probably cave to a large extent at some point. Don't let it sucker you in until the globals jump on board. I'm trying to fight it...It's so sure of itself though lol. Yeah I'm gonna hold my ground and toss it for now. Like SouthCoast said, I'll worry tomorrow if it hasn't admitted it's bluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Long time observer here and snow lover... Ok I have a question.... For the February 2013 blizzard NAM won out different system I get it not the same setup. If I'm not mistaken euro wasn't on board at all. Even the nam didn't forecast us the 3 feet we ended up with. Is there any hope of this here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I've started lowering expectations on our platforms and will kill the storm in the morning assuming no miracle from the Euro or 6z suite -- so if it's going to come back, it'll be at 12z tomorrow after I've waved the white flag and pulled our map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Long time observer here and snow lover... Ok I have a question.... For the February 2013 blizzard NAM won out different system I get it not the same setup. If I'm not mistaken euro wasn't on board at all. Even the nam didn't forecast us the 3 feet we ended up with. Is there any hope of this here? Euro was awesome in Feb 2013...though it didn't have that death band in CT, but no model really did. NAM might have had it on a run or two. NAM rarely wins in its current form. Back when it was the ETA model, it scored some coups...the last being Dec 9, 2005 shortly before it was changed to the NAM-WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Long time observer here and snow lover... Ok I have a question.... For the February 2013 blizzard NAM won out different system I get it not the same setup. If I'm not mistaken euro wasn't on board at all. Even the nam didn't forecast us the 3 feet we ended up with. Is there any hope of this here? I think there was a good consensus overall. The NAM had the crazy numbers everyone tossed but in your area it nailed it. I dont think as of now this is anything unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro was awesome in Feb 2013...though it didn't have that death band in CT, but no model really did. NAM might have had it on a run or two. NAM rarely wins in its current form. Back when it was the ETA model, it scored some coups...the last being Dec 9, 2005 shortly before it was changed to the NAM-WRF. Boxing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Tuck in jan 12th 2011. Gfs euro way too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro was awesome in Feb 2013...though it didn't have that death band in CT, but no model really did. NAM might have had it on a run or two. NAM rarely wins in its current form. Back when it was the ETA model, it scored some coups...the last being Dec 9, 2005 shortly before it was changed to the NAM-WRF. Nam had 3+ qpf for CT for a couple of runs and it was tossed ended up being right for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Boxing day. I recall the GFS being Boxing Day winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Tuck in jan 12th 2011. Gfs euro way too far east.you think so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Tuck in jan 12th 2011. Gfs euro way too far east. Yeah NAM did pretty well in this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I recall the GFS being Boxing Day winner. 00z nam 24th december had it first. Gfs and euro followed on the same suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nam was also first to the party 12_21_09 Ian and I had this discussion last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 you think so? Yea shortwave ripped a hole underneath li. Mesos had it better. But scott and will called that anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 00z nam 24th december had it first. Gfs and euro followed on the same suite. I recall the GFS being so on its own that NCEP actually went out of their way to say they believed it had bad data and tossed it...then the next suite other models caught on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's got its uses during meso situations and severe season. And w/in 24 hours or less of an event perhaps. Hey Ryan...the NAM is pretty much on its own right now. GFS/RGEM/GGEM are still south. It'll probably cave to a large extent at some point. Don't let it sucker you in until the globals jump on board. 4K NAM is buries NYC but marginal light to mod snowfall for N'rn burbs, keeps snow well south of the PIKE and south of BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nam was also first to the party 12_21_09 Ian and I had this discussion last week. Yeah that was actually an 84h NAM coup...lol. It had it way out in its clown range. I'm really talking about a huge difference this close in where it won out...can't really recall a good one...Jan 11 is a decent example, except other mesos agreed like the RGEM and SREFs...though in this one the SREFs agree with nam, lol. But not RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I recall the GFS being so on its own that NCEP actually went out of their way to say they believed it had bad data and tossed it...then the next suite other models caught on. See i thought both the nam and gfs were way northwest. Then ncep dismissed. I was obsessively checking the computer in buf when i visited for christmas. Drove back to mass in the first half of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Your 1.333km NAM for the Mid Atlantic...36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Andy that however changed my QPF.from .3 to 1.4 but its all irrelevant. Huge jump from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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