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Jan 23-24 Storm Banter


ORH_wxman

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Lmao at Box's maximum potential map. Shows south shore tainting, they are hedging against the NAM.

 

You would think right?

 

But more likely that's an artifact of BOX agreeing with WPC on the south coast, while thinking that the northern edge will be farther north than WPC thinks.

 

So there is a larger difference around the CT/MA/RI border versus the south coast. When you add the difference to WPC 90th percentile, you increase totals near the CT/MA/RI border, and don't change them much or at all on the south coast. So it looks like taint, but it's just forecast agreement.

 

This is my problem with these probability maps, because in actuality the greatest threat for higher totals is the south coast, not near ORH.

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You would think right?

But more likely that's an artifact of BOX agreeing with WPC on the south coast, while thinking that the northern edge will be farther north than WPC thinks.

So there is a larger difference around the CT/MA/RI border versus the south coast. When you add the difference to WPC 90th percentile, you increase totals near the CT/MA/RI border, and don't change them much or at all on the south coast. So it looks like taint, but it's just forecast agreement.

This is my problem with these probability maps, because in actuality the greatest threat for higher totals is the south coast, not near ORH.

Interesting. So isn't the problem really that they forced their forecast to agree with wpc but only for part of their forecast area?

Or reading it again, I'm not even sure I understand.

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