J Paul Gordon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Funny how few pages there are on the Mid Atlantic forum in comparison to the New England forum. They are about to get slammed by a monumental blizzard and have under a 100 pages. Meanwhile, we are about to be screwed and have just as many. If we were about to get hit with what's coming their way we'd be up past 300 pages by now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It'd be interesting to compare, but I wonder what the return time would be on both winters. The one that clobbered the MId-Atlantic with 100" or more in like the Maryland suburbs that average like 16" a year, or your winter last year. The 2009-2010 was more anomalous I'm sure from a pure statistical standpoint. Totally agree. BWI had 410% of their 1981-2010 average that winter. (Oops - they were still under the 71-00 norms then, so make that 431%.) They even had 7" more than CAR - their next closest in 70 winters is -33" and 3rd closest is about 4 feet less. Given that 09-10 is 14.5" ahead of BWI's #2 winter (95-96) and the length of record, that winter's at least a 100-yr event for them. For the juxtaposition with CAR, make it 1,000 years. Mahk - if GFS is to be believed, you want to go the extra hundred miles to BWI. don't quote me, but i think bos might have done better than car, me on that one - CAR 70.3", BOS 35.7" (according to my data, anyway.) Of course, that's about 60% of CAR's avg and 85% of Boston's, so looking at it that way, Boston did better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Funny how few pages there are on the Mid Atlantic forum in comparison to the New England forum. They are about to get slammed by a monumental blizzard and have under a 100 pages. Meanwhile, we are about to be screwed and have just as many. If we were about to get hit with what's coming their way we'd be up past 300 pages by now! They have started like 5 different threads. They start a new one when the old one gets too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Too bad it wasn't late 1990s to mid 2000s modeling. I'd fully be expecting a 100-200 mile shift north in the final 60 hours if it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Too bad it wasn't late 1990s to mid 2000s modeling. I'd fully be expecting a 100-200 mile shift north in the final 60 hours if it was. Kevin's north trend mentality stuck in the Backstreet Boys era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Kevin's north trend mentality stuck in the Backstreet Boys era.Becayse it hasnt happened dozens of times in the last 5-10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Too bad it wasn't late 1990s to mid 2000s modeling. I'd fully be expecting a 100-200 mile shift north in the final 60 hours if it was. Often times a blessing in disguise for folks in my area. Never fun expecting a foot then waking up to wet roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This is great, next time you read a NYC whine http://www.weather5280.com/blog/2016/01/21/the-glory-years-for-east-coast-snowstorms/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This is great, next time you read a NYC whine http://www.weather5280.com/blog/2016/01/21/the-glory-years-for-east-coast-snowstorms/ That's missing a fairly relevant decade for Boston at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 '96 tucked into the coast a lot more than this one, is that right? Later capture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well if the storm is a dud, at least they are making snow in NYC/Central Park. They should have the bunny slope openly this weekend. Late opening this year for the NYC Public Ski Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It'd be interesting to compare, but I wonder what the return time would be on both winters. The one that clobbered the MId-Atlantic with 100" or more in like the Maryland suburbs that average like 16" a year, or your winter last year. The 2009-2010 was more anomalous I'm sure from a pure statistical standpoint. I remember reading that a statistician at MIT ran Boston's climate data and concluded the return period for last year's snowfall was a once in 90,000 year type occurrence. Sounds high to me, but my policy is generally to cross the street when I see statistics coming so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Becayse it hasnt happened dozens of times in the last 5-10 years. You need to understand situational awareness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't understand the logic in the blizzard warnings. Are they trying to score a coup? Increase site traffic? They went all in during the blizzard last year when the Euro was barely clinging to max totals for their CWA. Their actual snow forecast is borderline reasonable to slightly bullish this time, but there is zero reason to issue blizzard watches at this lead time. Not only that, but why do Orange and Putnam County have a WSW and not coastal Fairfield? It's just strange. When I lived in their CWA I always deferred to Taunton (I was 10 miles SSW of Hartford County). It's a messaging thing. We issue watches based on 50% confidence (not really that high when you think about it). The public sees a watch and thinks the storm is locked in. It's something we're working hard on behind the scenes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Also I'm wondering if AccuWeather has done their follow up interview with the ASH newspaper about their "no less than 6 inches." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 These last 3 model cycles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 These last 3 model cycles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm watching Ucellini give a press conference...he talked about petaflops, 4D digital data assimilation, and actually reaching out to private researchers for input on upgrading the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I used to watch the weather channel all day long as a kid.... We didn't get internet at home for awhile. Used to plot storms in little maps my grandma bought me and watch that all day long in the basement. My damn heart song, sigh... Adulthood blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm watching Ucellini give a press conference...he talked about petaflops, 4D digital data assimilation, and actually reaching out to private researchers for input on upgrading the GFS Except our 4D assimilation is nothing like the ECMWF. It's more like 3.5 DVAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Except our 4D assimilation is nothing like the ECMWF. It's more like 3.5 DVAR. Well, baby steps...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 mqdefault.jpg Ha, that reminds me of a car I saw in Charlestown last winter. The guy never touched it during all those storms, and even after. People piled snow on its hood from the sidewalk and when it finally melted, the front shocked were permanently compressed right down to the wheel well. Car was f'ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 These last 3 model cycles: Dude, look at his face....someone please put Ray's face on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Dude, look at his face....someone please put Ray's face on that. Kali Ma...Kali Ma!!! I'm sure MaineJayhawk can do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So we get 100" in a month and not a word from big Louis, but get 2' in the MA and we have press conferences like we just had a terrorist attack...lol. And why did he need to mention about the whole modeling capacity anyways? Someone asked that? It should be on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So we get 100" in a month and not a word from big Louis, but get 2' in the MA and we have press conferences like we just had a terrorist attack...lol. And why did he need to mention about the whole modeling capacity anyways? Someone asked that? It should be on the storm. No one cares about New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NYC forum saw the 12z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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