JC-CT Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Easy Ray, it's all in good fun. I won't say anything else about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Probably a different evolution, but anyone remember a storm last March that was a virga storm north of 84 in CT (I nor KTOL received any flakes) but south of 84 accumulations slowly built up, maxing around 6-8" on the shore? From a lifetime of living in CT, it just seems that northern cutoffs as modeled are even sharper in reality due to dry air/virga. I wouldn't feel comfortable along 84 unless models push the good stuff to the pike. I share your concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREFs are a joke. If the 9z SREFs happen...you can beat me over the head after folks are done beating Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREFs are a joke. If the 9z SREFs happen...you can beat me over the head after folks are done beating Ray. Just worthless. Basically all the ARW are printing out like 2" or 3" of liquid. Worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfenn1117 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I share your concern I'm craving a big storm, and hesitant to completely write it off, but I don't have a warm feeling about it. To keep the analogy going, I'll take a field goal (I will literally take 3 inches). We need a few more yards to get in range IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I listened to WCBS radio this morning,holy heck NYC hype. Hope Lucy does not show up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just worthless. Basically all the ARW are printing out like 2" or 3" of liquid. Worthless. I'm glad we have an ensemble of models to show us where the best helicity is over Kansas. Like we don't have other good models for that. What a waste of $. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I listened to WCBS radio this morning,holy heck NYC hype. Hope Lucy does not show up You can thank OKX for that. A blizzard watch for the 5 boroughs and forecasting a foot of snow will do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 I wonder how they determined that these upgrades were supposed to help Back when they had ETA and RSM members they were much better for coastal storms. They probably had a convection fetish when they were running verification on them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just worthless. Basically all the ARW are printing out like 2" or 3" of liquid. Worthless. Those are my boys! The ARW is like crack to a QPF queen. Always keeping hope alive way NW. They were fun to watch fail every system last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm not going to bother going back searching for the post, but you seemed to intimate some areas had hit 30 inches in all three storms that year. So far as I know, that wasn't the case. I would've said Feb 5 was their best shot. but there were places that did 15-20 in dec storm, 20-30 in early feb, and another 15-20 just a few days later with depths of 3-4 feet on the level....now that was something for the ages...i mean three block busters in one winter and two of them back to back with little melting...that's right up there with anything 40/70 or coastalwx or orhwxman experienced last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I wonder how they determined that these upgrades were supposed to help Back when they had ETA and RSM members they were much better for coastal storms. They probably had a convection fetish when they were running verification on them The folks at NCEP are definitely aware of it. It would be fair to say they're not thrilled about their performance. I spoke with Bill Lapenta and Uccelini about how worthless the SREFs were and they basically said that "we know we have a lot of work to do." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 but there were places that did 15-20 in dec storm, 20-30 in early feb, and another 15-20 just a few days later with depths of 3-4 feet on the level....now that was something for the ages...i mean three block busters in one winter and two of them back to back with little melting...that's right up there with anything 40/70 or coastalwx or orhwxman experienced last winter thats about as epic as it gets plus they were 300-400 pct of climo in places!! still to this day i cannot get over that winter for them down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just worthless. Basically all the ARW are printing out like 2" or 3" of liquid. Worthless. Even so, there are some ARW cores that have only a couple inches at BDL. It would mean a little more if all the ARW members were spitting out big numbers. But they aren't, so it's really just a few weenie runs skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 WIZ had a nice write-up in his blog. Home-made snow acc maps per grads are awesome and ridiculous, only if. Tweaked a variable and re-running (much better) So this is how it feels being on the outside looking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Even so, there are some ARW cores that have only a couple inches at BDL. It would mean a little more if all the ARW members were spitting out big numbers. But they aren't, so it's really just a few weenie runs skewing the mean. Here's the difference between the ARW and NMB plumes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here's the difference between the ARW and NMB plumes It's really become a winter weather afterthought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 but there were places that did 15-20 in dec storm, 20-30 in early feb, and another 15-20 just a few days later with depths of 3-4 feet on the level....now that was something for the ages...i mean three block busters in one winter and two of them back to back with little melting...that's right up there with anything 40/70 or coastalwx or orhwxman experienced last winter It was absolutely epic down there without question, though not quite on the level of eastern Mass. I believe coastalwx pulled over 100" in just three weeks last year, including two 30" events, and two more in excess of 16", to say nothing of endless OES weenie snows. Edit: Perhaps their seasonal total was more anomalous, but that three week period for us trumps anything IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It was absolutely epic down there without question, though not quite on the level of eastern Mass. I believe coastalwx pulled over 100" in just three weeks last year, including two 30" events, and two more in excess of 16", to say nothing of endless OES weenie snows. Edit: Perhaps their seasonal total was more anomalous, but that three week period for us trumps anything IMO. Two 30" events is debatable and I will never know for sure since I could not measure in real time. But it was close. The other two were not quite 16 and it was around 30 days iirc that I hit 100". But your point stands..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Two 30" events is debatable and I will never know for sure since I could not measure in real time. But it was close. The other two were not quite 16 and it was around 30 days iirc that I hit 100". But your point stands..lol. Oh, i thought you'd pulled it off between Juno and 2/15. Either way, still insanely anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 there's some mets over in that banter thread having problem facing the reality of this thing and keep perpetuating a bargaining rationale that's embarrassing. look - if this regions "pulls of the improbable" (give it a rest. like it's improbable it'll be 100 F on saturday too) there is no way anyone would have known one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Terrible post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 there's some mets over in that banter thread having problem facing the reality of this thing and keep perpetuating a bargaining rationale that's embarrassing. look - if this regions "pulls of the improbable" (give it a rest. like it's improbable it'll be 100 F on saturday too) there is no way anyone would have known one way or the other. There's still a decent part of the subforum that has a shot at decent snow...you're in one of the worst spots up just NW of 495. I'm not much better. But for folks in CT/RI/SE MA, this is still a real threat. God forbid we talk about areas in our own subforum that may get a real storm if your backyard can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah, someone lost it. Jiminy crickets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 the tip melted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 there is a way for this to screw phl and dc and possibly nyc...and not by suppression either...if this thing were to wrap enough warm air in to the coast without the dynamics (as you say it shot its load already) there could be some wasted qpf on mixed snow/rain/sleet temps in the mid thirties that would be the ultimate FU for those folks...that in my mind is worse or as bad as smoking cirrus getting a few inches of slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 more unlikely just a few inches of slop for dc and phl but could drastically cut down totals...could see it for nyc or li though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I never had thoughts invested in this and I'm glad I did not. If I score 2 inches I will be happy considering how this winter has been. I would like to eventually see a storm give me enough snow to completely cover the grass. That would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 There's still a decent part of the subforum that has a shot at decent snow...you're in one of the worst spots up just NW of 495. I'm not much better. But for folks in CT/RI/SE MA, this is still a real threat. God forbid we talk about areas in our own subforum that may get a real storm if your backyard can't. no, ...i'm not going to parse through every word choice used to point out that 'fiddling with reality' aspect... forget it. it's a long shot down that way at best. the real trend is toward nothing. will pan that way ? hell who knows. but it was never about forbidding others from talking about their zones. that's not what is annoying. but again, better things to do with one's time - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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