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Central PA OMG SNOW thread -- Winter 2016


neff

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:o :o :o

 

Kocin:

http://www.wpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdepd

TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY 2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK

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Mr. Paul Kocin chimes in:

 

 

TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS
IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE
JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY
2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY
TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR
SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK.

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

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:o :o :o

 

Kocin:

http://www.wpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdepd

TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY 2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK

With all due respect to Kocin, shouldn't he realize that the 5-6 Feb. 2010 event had a much different distribution than 96 and PD2, at least further north?

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:o :o :o

 

Kocin:

http://www.wpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdepd

TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY 2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK

Dare I say............

 

I love that man.......

 

Sincerely,

 

Erik

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With all due respect to Kocin, shouldn't he realize that the 5-6 Feb. 2010 event had a much different distribution than 96 and PD2, at least further north?

I think it's a more general statement on storm development and placement...I don't expect to see the same type of cutoff with this event. Incredible moisture being drawn in and not the crushing confluence like that storm had.
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Will CTP issue headlines this afternoon or would they wait until Wednesday afternoon?

 

Not too often you see this forecast prep percentages three days out:

 

Friday
Snow likely after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday Night
Snow. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday
Snow. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
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Will CTP issue headlines this afternoon or would they wait until Wednesday afternoon?

 

Not too often you see this forecast prep percentages three days out:

 

Friday
Snow likely after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday Night
Snow. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday
Snow. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

 

i think they wait one more day for this reason: the energy that will make up this system will move onshore in Oregon this evening. Once it moves onshore and gets sampled much better than over the eastern pacific, the models will make their final, and maybe dramatic moves. And once those moves happen, certainty goes through the roof. and given the projected timing, 36-48 hours will be more than enough time to make the right preps.

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