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Central PA OMG SNOW thread -- Winter 2016


neff

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The Nam has been pretty steadfast for this storm. Cut the precipitation 35% and maybe it is onto something.

Last night I didn't think it's soulution was as bad as the GFS.

Only time will tell.

Yep, we can joke all we want about the NAM but other than 1 blip at 6z from 84/hr on in it has been steadfast with its solution. Very light snow in Palmyra. Let the fun begin.

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My question would be, has any model ever shown 50+" of snow, from one storm, for the LSV?  If not then it cannot be totally thrown out.   Models routinely shows 2-3 feet snows that are just fantasy and do not happen but something this strange has to at least be considered.  If MDT ends up with 22" the name will have busted by almost 30"!

Good to see you back bubbler, I remember back from the Eastern days.

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rea forecast discussion

National Weather Service State College PA

314 PM EST Friday Jan 22 2016

Synopsis...

a major winter storm will impact south-central Pennsylvania later

Friday into Saturday night. The heaviest snowfall is expected to

be across southern sections...especially from the Pennsylvania

Turnpike to the Maryland border.

&&

Near term /until midnight tonight/...

latest radar imagery...surface observation...and web cams show light snow has

moved into southern PA...a bit ahead of schedule. This initial band

should fade out before restarting again in earnest later this

evening.

&&

Short term /midnight tonight through Saturday night/...

general core guidance advertising a significant snow storm for the

middle Atlantic continues with little change in overall solutions.However...after wpc and regional coordination call this

afternoon have to consider the more northward solutions of the

NAM/sref ensemble members and slight northward shift shown by the

GFS/ECMWF. This shift will push the northern edge of accumulating snow

a bit northward...and necessitate an increase in the total

snowfall amounts. This will put a forecast of over 2 feet of storm

total snow over southern parts of our County Warning Area...namely from Adams County

northeastward across parts of York and Lancaster counties.

Over southern counties expect synoptic snow totals to be enhanced by

areas of convection/thunder snow late tonight and early Saturday.

Here local snow amounts could exceed 30 inches.

Will hold on to winter storm warnings for all counties where it is

currently issued. Close inspection of wind fields from numerical

guidance does not support reaching winds speeds needed to exceed

blizzard criteria. However...poor visibilities in heavy snow and

strong winds will likely create blizzard-like conditions later

tonight into Saturday.

Over 30 inches of snow and northern movement - words I love to hear! Woot!

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Good to see you back bubbler, I remember back from the Eastern days.

 

 

Thanks.  I am in Florida now but had to come back here and lurk for this event.  I hope to get out of this "state" soon though.    I won't be around for a lot of ob's tomorrow because I am going to go out and enjoy the Florida weather :-).  Though tomorrow is supposed to be a bit nippy even here.

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South of Rt 30 is going to get a hammer drop with this storm. One of the all time greats. Looks like our northern guys will get a little action as well per the latest model guidance. This storm is super juiced up and banding is already really taking effect, and it's still only from the surface low over Georgia. It is starting to transfer now and already have 1000 mb over Savannah per the Meso Analysis.

 

post-9895-0-03606400-1453500341_thumb.pn

 

 

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CTP forecast update. Big time!

Tonight Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Northeast wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 12 to 17 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 29. Blustery, with a north wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Saturday Night Snow, mainly before 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before 1am. Low around 17. North wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

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Hey all.  I missed yas last night and today.  Was at cabin overnight and couldnt log on...saw yas but couldnt chat.  It was killing me.

 

Glad to see she came back north for many of us.  Looking forward to seein this play out...(after a nap).  

 

Enjoy gang.

 

I'll get my coordinates for the group after supper.

 

Nut

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CTP forecast update. Big time!

Tonight Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Northeast wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 12 to 17 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 29. Blustery, with a north wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Saturday Night Snow, mainly before 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before 1am. Low around 17. North wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

 

Boy did I seriously under estimate your forecast. I'm glad I did actually. Hope you get slammed!!!  :sled:

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BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A

BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY. THE

WINTER STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...15 TO 20 INCHES WITH UP TO 2 FEET ALONG THE

MARYLAND BORDER.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST

SNOW WITH RAPID ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR

WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL TAPER

OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND END BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS

AROUND 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SOME ROADS

WILL BECOME IMPASSABLE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH NEAR WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS FROM SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. Instructions: A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ANY TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT...CARRY A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT IN YOUR CAR...INCLUDING FOOD...BLANKETS AND A CELLULAR PHONE. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT... WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. Target Area: Lancaster

York

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Tonight

Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Northeast wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.



Saturday

Snow, mainly after 2pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 8am. High near 29. Blustery, with a northeast wind 23 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.



Saturday Night

Snow, mainly before 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before 2am. Low around 17. Blustery, with a north wind 18 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.



Sunday

A chance of snow before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 34. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

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