MillvilleWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Can you do 2 miles south of the pa md line south of Hanover at 1000 ft. Manchester md. You'll do just fine. 24-32" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS literally gives Hagerstown 48" of snow. 3.9" qpf in Leesburg, lol. Models suck, all of them. My poor roommate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's zoomed in a bunch but here's the GFS snow map Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Okay, I tried to do a map on the computer and get super frustrated so I'm gonna do this. Rapid fire me your area and I'll give you my best forecast. I'll do this over the next 30 min. Everyone GO!!! Lebanon, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Lebanon, PA. 2-5" seems reasonable for now. A slight north bump and you could bump up those totals a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Anyone have the qpf for Harrisburg on this GFS Run? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 1.7" I believe. It's wayyyyyyy to wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 that still gives MDT around 6-10" of snow. If I can read it right...anyone have the county overlay...this is completely NUTS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I can't quite tell since the gradient is so insane but it still looks like MDT area is 18 - 24". Can anyone do the county overlay on that map? Edit...Map from MA forum shows MDT right on 24" line still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 first night no EURO for me, wake up tomorrow and watch radar forget the model madness...crazy in our area might as well use a dart board between 1"-24" and Northern folks I feel for you. NAM sucks you in....Can it score just one coup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There is a white dot over my house on this gfs map. If it verifies we might go glacial down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The radar out west wth what'll turn into this storm is crazy wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS 0z snow totals per zoomed in region Weatherbell snow map with amounts per location: MDT = 18 Lancaster = 17 York = 30 State College= 2 Williamsport = 0 Wilkes-Barre= 0 Amazing cutoff begins about 40 miles north of The turnpike. But then again, about 40 miles south of the turnpike, amounts go over 30 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Daulphin county goes from 18-20 inches down by MDT to 5-6 at its northern border Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 MDT is playing with fire, could be huge, could be high end advisory. These forecasts are brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am hearing GGEM is north, might not be enough for northern areas don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Here are my coordinates for Marysville : 40.35 N 76.92 W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nam has it's soulution and so does GFS. The Nam is now in it's range.. I think the Nam has the right idea but probably over doing the precip a lot. Edit:But GFS & Euro are probably going to be similar. 9 times out of 10 their right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 80 miles is the difference between 4 and 40 inches. Almost 0.5" a mile Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 4-k NAM and the Current GFS both get 20-24" up to just about Harrisburg. They seem to have totally different snow band orientations based on the max accumulations. What would cause this? HiRES NAM GFS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am hearing GGEM is north, might not be enough for northern areas don't know. precip output wise it is better than 12z across southern pa but doesnt really push precip much further north... just more of it where it had less earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 precip output wise it is better than 12z across southern pa but doesnt really push precip much further north... just more of it where it had less earlierDo you consider us southern PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Here is the 0z Canadian snow per location: MDT = 11 Lancaster = 17 York = 18 State College = 3 Williamsport = 1 Wilkes-Barre = 1 Just over the MD line amounts range from 21-24. It seems like the global models are slowly coming to a consensus. Hopefully the short range models can help move this move a little further north for our friends north of the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Do you consider us southern PA? CarlislePAWX better schedule that eye appointment for you So you can see where Harrisburg sits on a PA map... Just kidding man, I love your posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 CarlislePAWX better schedule that eye appointment for you So you can see where Harrisburg sits on a PA map... Just kidding man, I love your posts! Ha! Actually had this debate at work, see consider HBG southern, some central, some more west than east (wtf???), etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hard to tell but the UKMET doesn't look too bad...not super-NAM-great but better than the GFS and CMC at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hmmmmmm. I think some kids are a litttttle too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I just looked at the UKMET precip totals map. It has a low tucked in to The coast of VA on Saturday. Precip totals are much better than its 12z run & better for our northern folks. I ran the conversion chart( nice easy website when you google mm to in.) Here are the approximate totals( they don't have a zoomed in map that I know of ) MDT = 1.5 QPF York & Lancaster = 1.9 QPF State College & Wilkes -Barre= .4 QPF Williamsport = .2 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ukie being north is a good thing, Euro usually follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hmmmmmm. I think some kids are a litttttle too excited. If the 0z gfs is close to being right they might be way too conservative, just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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