Itstrainingtime Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Man, this place is quiet tonight. What the hell? Sorry, had to go buy 12 gallons of milk and 10 loaves of bread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Have SREFs ever been right at being off on their own? Is current radar matching these? Have the SREFs really ever beat out the global models in a situation like this? Or are they likely to just abruptly correct to the other models as we get closer?Not that I can recall... They can make dramatic jumps and go from 20" to nothing in a matter of hours... Have seen that before...But it's funny how they were being analyzed and considered good when not pushing precip into pa but now they are terrible because it's not what the globals show precip wise and shouldn't be trusted without making any comparison to actual conditions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM is juiced again looks similar.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 even with new data? That's a huge shift, could 3 hours of data really cause that? That's all I wanted to know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Neff taking a beating on the MA forum. LOL well he posted a map that cuts off the first half of the storm dc south so it looked like they got screwed then said the jackpots in pa now. That's not going to go over well. They still do fine there are just signs from the srefs nam and gfs of a more expansive previp field on the north side. For whatever reason the euro and gem have a very contracted qpf even with a similar track to gfs. Uk was kinda in between the two camps. My gut says the euro gem are too suppressed on the north side and it might even nudge north of the gfs. The Sref are usually overdone so I wouldntbtake this to the bank on the northern 30/40 miles but for central and southern pa it's a good sign especially that some members other then the amp happy arw are getting on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sorry, had to go buy 12 gallons of milk and 10 loaves of bread. the nam cares not for your bread and milk now sit down Precip shield maybe a bit further north? (0z/27 vs 18z/33) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 well he posted a map that cuts off the first half of the storm dc south so it looked like they got screwed then said the jackpots in pa now. That's not going to go over well. They still do fine there are just signs from the srefs nam and gfs of a more expansive previp field on the north side. For whatever reason the euro and gem have a very contracted qpf even with a similar track to gfs. Uk was kinda in between the two camps. My gut says the euro gem are too suppressed on the north side and it might even nudge north of the gfs. The Sref are usually overdone so I wouldntbtake this to the bank on the northern 30/40 miles but for central and southern pa it's a good sign especially that some members other then the amp happy arw are getting on board. People really need to step away from the keyboard if they aren't able to objectively analyze and discuss model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not that I can recall... They can make dramatic jumps and go from 20" to nothing in a matter of hours... Have seen that before... But it's funny how they were being analyzed and considered good when not pushing precip into pa but now they are terrible and shouldn't be trusted without making any comparison to actual conditions... I'll usually cut the SREF means in half (or more) and it ends up being somewhat close. The biggest thing the SREFs CAN do is show you modeling trends. But for the most part, I ignore the numbers and look for clusters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Out to h24, 00z NAM is better than the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 at this point I don't even read the MA forum....not worth the torture of DT beating down on people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 My coordinates are 40.6N, 78.36W 21z SREF has State College up to 13" on the mean http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ KAOO has a 23" mean and a whopping 15 of the 26 members range from pretty much the mean to 53" lol. Another 8 members are between 5-16" leaving the remaining 3 or so with 0". The numbers (as well as ratios too in some members) are insane. Again, obviously probably overdone with the high end numbers but I will simply interpret the SREF's as a continued signal that the heavy precip cutoff may be more on I-80 vs somewhere in between 80 and the turnpike. This cutoff is going to be extremely difficult to pin down and we probably will be going into the storm arrival tomorrow eve still trying to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM and RPM are both looking really good so far. NAM should be yuge again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 SREFS QPF for Harrisburg At 15z 6 members < 0.05" 1 member at 0.94" 16 Members between 1.25" and 3.00" At 21z 3 members <.05 3 members between 0.40" & 0.80" 14 members between 1.25" and 3.00" 3 members between 3.00" and 3.85" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Definitely further north coverage 0z/30 vs. 18z/36 hold me i'm scared it's going to shunt east guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 And there you go. NAM'd again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 at this point I don't even read the MA forum....not worth the torture of DT beating down on people. I rather look at the accuweather forums than subject myself to that. Although there's a few members in the mid Atlantic forum who are actually pretty knowledgeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 well he posted a map that cuts off the first half of the storm dc south so it looked like they got screwed then said the jackpots in pa now. That's not going to go over well. They still do fine there are just signs from the srefs nam and gfs of a more expansive previp field on the north side. For whatever reason the euro and gem have a very contracted qpf even with a similar track to gfs. Uk was kinda in between the two camps. My gut says the euro gem are too suppressed on the north side and it might even nudge north of the gfs. The Sref are usually overdone so I wouldntbtake this to the bank on the northern 30/40 miles but for central and southern pa it's a good sign especially that some members other then the amp happy arw are getting on board. If Neff did this intentionally this is high-level troll job and I can get behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If Neff did this intentionally this is high-level troll job and I can get behind that. I SECOND THAT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 And there you go. NAM'd again Something has to give on these southern globals. Yeah, it's the NAM/SREF, but it's in their supposed "wheelhouse" time now, so there's got to be some consolidation to solutions. It'll probably be tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 All of SPA getting demolished by 34... Surface low tucked into the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 at this point I don't even read the MA forum....not worth the torture of DT beating down on people. I wouldn't if I didn't work 15 miles north of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 But will the hi-res NAM again be pretty opposite like it was at earlier? Radio show on btw, listening to the right show. They're kinda generally poo-pooing the NAM in winter, not saying it's rung wrong but it can be off due to how it's built. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 992 on the southern trip of the Delmarva at 36. 0.25+ starting to breach 80. LSV...what is happening I think is illegal in 45 states and several overseas territories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 40.17.30 N 78.54.51 W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Something has to give on these southern globals. Yeah, it's the NAM/SREF, but it's in their supposed "wheelhouse" time now, so there's got to be some consolidation to solutions. It'll probably be tonight. Well with the obscene amount of extra data going in tonight, something is going to give. Also, if you take anything away from the NAM it should be this image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 and que DT over in the MA arguing how wrong the NAM is, I'll pay someone to troll... :-) just kidding GREAT RUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 this is fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Something has to give on these southern globals. Yeah, it's the NAM/SREF, but it's in their supposed "wheelhouse" time now, so there's got to be some consolidation to solutions. It'll probably be tonight.. The gfs jump north at 18z made me start to consider they are onto a north shift. At the least I now expect a compromise between the two camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Also, if you take anything away from the NAM it should be this image. Textbook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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