AllWeather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Didn't the 18z runs have some fresh data inputted in from launch sites? I would imagine the 21z SREFs have that new data as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Didn't the 18z runs have some fresh data inputted in from launch sites? I would imagine the 21z SREFs have that new data as well. CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS... CWD WILL BE DECLARED AT 21/1200Z AND EXTEND THROUGH 24/1200Z DUE TO ANTICIPATED IMPACTS FROM A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE U.S. EAST COAST. IN SUPPORT OF MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE U.S. EAST COAST, SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING TODAY AT 1800Z. ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM. *** SPECIAL SOUNDING REQUESTS *** CENTRAL REGION: ENTIRE REGION FROM 20/1800Z TO 22/0600Z SOUTHERN REGION: EXCLUDING TX AND FL...FROM TX EASTWARD BEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 22/1800Z. EASTERN REGION: WFOs RNK, GSO, MHX, IAD, PIT, OKX, ALB, CHH BEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 23/0600Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Weather meetup at the new Arooga's sometime? : Let's do it on Saturday after nobody gets snow... <straightface> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilliams75 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gettysburg, PA 39.819500 N 77.195007 W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is from the 15z SREF, but it's been a trend getting stronger each run of it. You can see that besides the ones at the bottom showing 1" of snow for HAR the next lowest one is over 11" with the mean at 17" due to some crazy ones. The QPF output is the same. It's like all or nothing with more members jumping to the all each run. It's weird having no middle ground. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 We're up to 18 of us: Screen Shot 2016-01-21 at 7.41.44 PM.png Palmyra .....Jmister Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The Euro 12z Para gives MDT only .3" fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS... CWD WILL BE DECLARED AT 21/1200Z AND EXTEND THROUGH 24/1200Z DUE TO ANTICIPATED IMPACTS FROM A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE U.S. EAST COAST. IN SUPPORT OF MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE U.S. EAST COAST, SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING TODAY AT 1800Z. ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM. *** SPECIAL SOUNDING REQUESTS *** CENTRAL REGION: ENTIRE REGION FROM 20/1800Z TO 22/0600Z SOUTHERN REGION: EXCLUDING TX AND FL...FROM TX EASTWARD BEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 22/1800Z. EASTERN REGION: WFOs RNK, GSO, MHX, IAD, PIT, OKX, ALB, CHH BEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 23/0600Z. Thought so, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The SREFs are actually showing signs of contracting on the NW of the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 So 21z should have sounding data since soundings started at 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So 21z should have sounding data since soundings started at 18z? Right. The 15z would have been too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So at this point we have the NAM and SREFs crushing MDT (and LSV in general) with snow and the GFS is still good but the rest say meh for our area? Shiaaaaat...I'd hate to be a met on these calls lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 21z SREF has State College up to 13" on the mean http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 CarlislePaWx 40.2412 N -77.1770 W Thanks!! >>American models (except 4K Nam) FTW<< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Neff taking a beating on the MA forum. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Neff taking a beating on the MA forum. LOL just from phine***hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 just from phine***hole I enjoyed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 21z SREF has State College up to 13" on the mean http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Have SREFs ever been right at being off on their own? Is current radar matching these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Which Mid-Atl thread, there's like fifty of them? Signed, Asking for a friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj88 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Epwa said the nam is actually matching the current position the best. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Which Mid-Atl thread, there's like fifty of them? Signed, Asking for a friend http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47700-storm-mode-thread-january-22-23-mid-atlantic-storm-thread-4-no-banter/page-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 21z SREF has State College up to 13" on the mean http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Have the SREFs really ever beat out the global models in a situation like this? Or are they likely to just abruptly correct to the other models as we get closer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 just from phine***hole Yeah, there's not much getting around with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Epwa said the nam is actually matching the current position the best. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Pro tip: do not listen to anyone with "authority" in their name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Have the SREFs really ever beat out the global models in a situation like this? Or are they likely to just abruptly correct to the other models as we get closer?Looking at them it doesn't appear to change much from say the GFS track, but greatly expand the precip shield north/NW. But really are they ever right when so far on their own currently, even with new data? That's a huge shift, could 3 hours of data really cause that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 00z NAM out to hour 12, looking very similar to the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looking at them it doesn't appear to change much from say the GFS track, but greatly expand the precip shield north/NW. But really are they ever right when so far on their own currently, even with new data? That's a huge shift, could 3 hours of data really cause that? Have the SREFs really ever beat out the global models in a situation like this? Or are they likely to just abruptly correct to the other models as we get closer? The rule of thumb that I've learned, is to never use them outside of 36 hours and if you see the ARW cores skewing the mean, you toss. There were some times that they're relatively useful, but they are not good enough to hang your hat on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 THE 00Z NAM BEGAN AND IS RUNNING ON TIME WITH 13 ALASKAN...30CANADIAN...70 CONUS...AND 1 MEXICAN RAOB REPORTS AVAILABLE FORINGEST. NO CARIBBEAN RAOB REPORTS WERE RECEIVED FOR THE NAM.7 WINTER STORM RECON DROPSONDES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WERERECEIVED FOR THE 00Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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