pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 i am so trying to not get overly excited, but pretty soon i'm gonna need some tissues to clean up. thanks for the visual... NOT!! Lets just keep it real gang...headed in the right direction but we aint there yet. If it holds...and tomorrows 12z hold serve....then I might say....break the tissues out (for whatever puposes...just nasty.) Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Euro OP parallel NW Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The run being mentioned is 0z/19, not 0z/20, which doesn't seem to be out anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That is awesome! Thanks for doing that. Love those county overlays when we have these tight cutoffs. We are really fighting the cutoff in Pittsburgh area. NAM qpf output goes from .31" in PIT to 1.37" in AOO to 2-2.25" for MDT/THV/LNS through 84 hours... wide area of 1"+ but needs to nudge west for PIT to join the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 They launched blizzard watches for DC, MD and VA. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC1013 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ052>057-505-506-202315-/O.NEW.KLWX.BZ.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-1013 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATESATURDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 http://weather.im/iembot/ This is a site I like to have open for events like this because you can get all NWS office products with each office sorted by a tab. (ie. Pittsburgh, State College, Binghamton, Mount Holly, Baltimore/Washington DC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Eric Horst just went all in! @MUweather As I expected, the overnight EURO model has drifted back north w/ the heavy snow. 10+ inches likely in Lancaster area. Map coming this aft.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 They launched blizzard watches for DC, MD and VA. Wow. Will be interesting which way CTP goes as those are just across state line. I can't imagine them not doing a blizzard watch as well. Game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Parallel GFS still all-in for SE 2/3rds of the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Parallel GFS still all-in for SE 2/3rds of the area... It really has been one of the most consistent models. Has barely changed at all the past few days, if I remember correctly. The question is, will it have been consistently right, or consistently wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This one could be difficult for pawatch nepa and I. Definitely going to enjoy the posts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Amazing the GFS has pretty much been holding steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Parallel GFS still all-in for SE 2/3rds of the area... 2016012006z_para.png That looks like 2.5 to 4 in Lancaster county. Count me in happy land if that verifies. Can someone please overlay a county map? I will have to save that image if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Low might be a little further north at 51 on the GFS than 6z, that's all I can do for now. See you all later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
var126 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lol I could take a 15 minute ride from nothing to 10 inches. HI wmsptwx - another fringer here in Lewisburg (even if I don't post, I always read). You're 30 mins N of me, so if it turns out that way, come on down and drink some brews by the river in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm gonna take you up on that bud! My mom works at Evangelical so I'm familiar with Lewisburg. Hope u guys get in the good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'll do my best..... @54 1003 NW GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I was just looking...in the 96 storm we got 11.9" some people have been pointing to a 96 analog with this storm. Just watching the runs going to smoke some turkey breasts today. Thanks NEPA!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 energy begins transfer to coast hr 57-60 by south carolina and is approaching OBX at hr 66 as 995ish low... light to moderate precip pushes just into southern tier of PA during this heavier banding develops across SE PA hrs 69-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Stolen from MA, the GFS through 90: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Beautiful! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 LNS in a good spot for this run some people may not like this run because there is a big drop off in where there is banding and where there is not but I wouldn't read much into that right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 From MA forum... GGEM looks very NAM like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Does the GFS look wonky to anyone else? Maybe it's just the deform band placement but it looks screwey to me for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think this guy might be right from accuweather forum Class GFS nonsense. Jumps the energy out too fast and too far east. With the amount of cold on land and the very warm water, the natural baroclynic zone will along the coast. You can see it try and reform a SLP farther west, but it messes up the QPF fields. I would not get discouraged by this. As it gets closer in time, the GFS will fix this shearing out issue Yes. It shears out the energy too fast and tries to pop a new low over the heavy convection out to sea. It does this a lot. You can see it fighting with itself. Expect a tighter compact low closer to the coast. Maybe not to the extreme of the NAM, but not what this is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think this guy might be right from accuweather forum Class GFS nonsense. Jumps the energy out too fast and too far east. With the amount of cold on land and the very warm water, the natural baroclynic zone will along the coast. You can see it try and reform a SLP farther west, but it messes up the QPF fields. I would not get discouraged by this. As it gets closer in time, the GFS will fix this shearing out issue Yes. It shears out the energy too fast and tries to pop a new low over the heavy convection out to sea. It does this a lot. You can see it fighting with itself. Expect a tighter compact low closer to the coast. Maybe not to the extreme of the NAM, but not what this is showing In agreement Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is looking more and more like a 8-12" MDT snowstorm. That's great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I read this somewhere else but in the past 20 years it seems that these storms take on a more miller B look to them (miller A/miller B hybrid), rather than a full fledge miller A. May explain why we have seen so many of the big storms with these tight gradients. It may be just me, but growing up it was always a rain/snow concern. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Mehhh I want a monster to track from gulf of Mexico all the way up to New England lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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