RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 00z Parallel GFS is a monster for many here. Does anyone have more information about the parallel version? Is it a test replacement? Screen Shot 2016-01-20 at 6.57.59 AM.png I am pretty sure it is actually scheduled to become the new operational in March or April if I remember correctly. There are only a couple of minor changes to correct a couple of issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wx off topic: Christine Ferreira at WGAL could read a medical journal on the air and I would be relaxed and feel well informed. Great met. She put herself out there this morning saying she's pretty confident that the GAL viewing area sees a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1201 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016 VALID 12Z SAT JAN 23 2016 - 12Z WED JAN 27 2016 MODEL CHOICES AND CONFIDENCE... CHOICES ARE LARGELY A RESULT OF THOSE SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE SHOWN THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE THE GREATEST SUPPORT FROM OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES. OF THESE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN THE STEADIEST DESPITE IRONING OUT IMPORTANT SYSTEM DETAILS...WITH THE GFS A CLOSE SECOND AND THE ECMWF THE WORST. IN FACT...THE ECMWF IS SO FAR FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS IN 4 DISTINCT AREAS BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT IT WAS NOT USED AT ALL IN THE BLENDING PROCESS. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Morning gang.... Can we send this to DT?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 You guys seemed to have a lot of fun in here last night, after being up at 230 yesterday no way i could hang. Canderson snafu was a classic as well as the obit for Eskimo. Good chit. Digging last nights models, like the north movement. I think for those of us in the southern tier counties have a legit shot at double digits. I'm pretty pumped. Something i haven't seen talked of much is the wind, as i read it may be closer to the coast, can we anticipate greater winds associated with the storm because of this? Then get a nap when you get home tonight....cause if things hold serve I/we will be at it again. You guys seemed to have a lot of fun in here last night, after being up at 230 yesterday no way i could hang. Canderson snafu was a classic as well as the obit for Eskimo. Good chit. Digging last nights models, like the north movement. I think for those of us in the southern tier counties have a legit shot at double digits. I'm pretty pumped. Something i haven't seen talked of much is the wind, as i read it may be closer to the coast, can we anticipate greater winds associated with the storm because of this? Except I may be doing my pbp w/ booze in my hand... It was fun, and the trends surely helped that. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 06Z GFS Cobb shows 23.2" from 2.04" qpf for KMDT. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kmdt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Then get a nap when you get home tonight....cause if things hold serve I/we will be at it again. You guys seemed to have a lot of fun in here last night, after being up at 230 yesterday no way i could hang. Canderson snafu was a classic as well as the obit for Eskimo. Good chit. Digging last nights models, like the north movement. I think for those of us in the southern tier counties have a legit shot at double digits. I'm pretty pumped. Something i haven't seen talked of much is the wind, as i read it may be closer to the coast, can we anticipate greater winds associated with the storm because of this? Except I may be doing my pbp w/ booze in my hand... It was fun, and the trends surely helped that. Nut I would heavily suggest it, Nut. These models drive you to drink especially for us right now. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 06Z GFS Cobb shows 23.2" from 2.04" qpf for KMDT. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kmdt Looking at this, its not starting until the overnight hours. I was thinking it was starting here early evening. I just text my daughter who goes to Millersville, told her to go buy a snow shovel ASAP. I thought i got her everything she needs, forgot a fricking shovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looking at this, its not starting until the overnight hours. I was thinking it was starting here early evening. I just text my daughter who goes to Millersville, told her to go buy a snow shovel ASAP. I thought i got her everything she needs, forgot a fricking shovel I don't think I never shoveled my walk at Penn State. I was always in the "It will melt" campaign. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 And you were hated for it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I don't think I never shoveled my walk at Penn State. I was always in the "It will melt" campaign. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Not shovel her walks, to shovel out her car, or in the event she gets stuck. as much as we pay for rent, screw the walks, let the maintenance guys do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I see we're not mentioning the horrible, horrible 06z GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I see we're not mentioning the horrible, horrible 06z GFS ensembles. all 3 ensembles gfs ggem and eps can't shake the south camp. While the op runs tend to favor the north idea about 40% of the ens for all 3 have a south track. Many even miss dc. Obviously the higher resolution ops favor the north idea with the exception of one euro run. So the question is dies the higher resolutions make them better at handling this or are they going overboard with the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Latest WPC 1-5 day QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I see we're not mentioning the horrible, horrible 06z GFS ensembles. were they really?? didnt look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Latest WPC 1-5 day QPF 1.25-1.5... argh, WPC, make it so! Haha. I'd still be happy with a few inches, even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 all 3 ensembles gfs ggem and eps can't shake the south camp. While the op runs tend to favor the north idea about 40% of the ens for all 3 have a south track. Many even miss dc. Obviously the higher resolution ops favor the north idea with the exception of one euro run. So the question is dies the higher resolutions make them better at handling this or are they going overboard with the system. How far south are you talking with some of the individuals - like nothing PHL north or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How far south are you talking with some of the individuals - like nothing PHL north or so? Yep, or one even further south than that http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_6z/f132.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Latest WPC 1-5 day QPF wpc.png That seems a lot farther north with good precip to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 all 3 ensembles gfs ggem and eps can't shake the south camp. While the op runs tend to favor the north idea about 40% of the ens for all 3 have a south track. Many even miss dc. Obviously the higher resolution ops favor the north idea with the exception of one euro run. So the question is dies the higher resolutions make them better at handling this or are they going overboard with the system. even some of the SREF members continue to completely miss DC and the timing is so far off that it makes the mean a little goofy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yep, or one even further south than that http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_6z/f132.html There only seems to be a couple. not the 40% hoffman implies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How far south are you talking with some of the individuals - like nothing PHL north or so? I counted 6/21 gfs members that get nothing or less then a few inches to me. I'm a few miles south of the pa border. 3 miss dc even. And a few more get decent snow not nothing big to Mason Dixon line. Then the other half go hog wild like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 There only seems to be a couple. not the 40% hoffman implies... I dunno, more like 100% of the ensembles are south for up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 There only seems to be a couple. not the 40% hoffman implies... that's only 12 of the 21 gfs ensembles. I don't know why ewall doesn't post them all but I've seen them all. 6 get very little and a few others I get fringed. I kinda counted those as a miss because most of you are north of me and honestly if I get 6" while dc gets 25" I won't really enjoy that. Plus it's way to close when the sharp edge is right over you. So overall it's a 60/40 split if op like runs and ones similar to yesterday's euro or even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I dunno, more like 100% of the ensembles are south for up here. yea people don't want to hear it. But if rather someone with knowledge of the way they work try to discuss if it means anything that the higher resolution ops have been consistently north of the ensembles for several runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I dunno, more like 100% of the ensembles are south for up here. Yeah, I mean, we know we're in trouble 80N. But I'm talking about this subforum as a whole; still, guess there were more members as noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yea I stop in now and again, but as soon as you hear it's a cutoff deal it lets you know where you stand. I think we will see some cool obs from our York and Lancaster guys come Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yeah, I mean, we know we're in trouble 80N. But I'm talking about this subforum as a whole; still, guess there were more members as noted. I guess my point is, these are even worse than the 00z ensembles. But there are potential caveats, of course, and psuhoffman mentioned one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Aren't ensembles worthless within 72 hours? I swear I've already read they aren't worth looking at when you are closing in on a system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Also, is WPC usually so bullish? Because damn they're bullish (and it's great). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Aren't ensembles worthless within 72 hours? I swear I've already read they aren't worth looking at when you are closing in on a system? I was going to ask the same thing. I read several times yesterday where I thought even mets were saying to stop looking at the ensembles today. (meaning yesterday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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