NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 102 the deform is trying to hit the eastern 1/3rd back with 0.1+. 0.25+ south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good sign, it comes back toward the GFS/GGEM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Pleasantly surprising improvements after how far south the H5 was trying to form and dig. Seems the slower speed gave a chance for the confluence to step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 0.1-0.25" into the southern tier at 84hr, which is already better than 12z. 90hr - Moderate snow in the far southern tier, 0.1 line running roughly a JST-AOO-MDT line 96 hr - Similar, with moderate snow into the some of the LSV (Like York/Lancaster) Main takeaway is def better than 12z That to me is the first baby step back. So good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 well, it is certainly the Americans/Canadians versus the Europeans in this case. 2 extreme solutions to consider. GFS has been the most consistent for several, several runs. I don't even know what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Man what a cutoff in SW PA. A stone's throw from 1.00+ to 0. In any event, it is definitely improved from 12z. 0.25-0.5 UNV-IPT. 81 corridor 80N gets back to 0.50+. LSV 1.00+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Man what a cutoff in SW PA. A stone's throw from 1.00+ to 0. In any event, it is definitely improved from 12z. 0.25-0.5 UNV-IPT. 81 corridor 80N gets back to 0.50+. LSV 1.00+. My subforum is sweating bullets right now. The north west precip definitely came north. It's good to see and atleast this is still 2.5 days away. Both our subforum can still benefit from some more trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 well, it is certainly the Americans/Canadians versus the Europeans in this case. 2 extreme solutions to consider. GFS has been the most consistent for several, several runs. I don't even know what to think. things just got really interesting, it will be very enjoyable to watch this play out and hopeful hit with a lot of powder to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 SV 10:1 snow maps have 2-4" UNV-IPT, 4-6" AVP. Get toward MDT/LSV, you're up to 8-10", maybe 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yep certainly a good bit better than 12z, but some work still to be done to get our PIT/UNV/IPT folks more involved. Def a DC/NOVA jackpot.. but it looks that the southern parts of the LSV end up with a pretty sig storm. Ensembles should be interesting. Pleasantly surprising improvements after how far south the H5 was trying to form and dig. Seems the slower speed gave a chance for the confluence to step back. I'll be interested in the 500 mb and other comparisons once I see the full Euro here in a bit. When the 0z NAM came out I compared it to the 12z Euro and it actually wasn't that vastly different at 500mb. The confluence is also going to be a piece of the puzzle as far as northern extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 2.2 inches qpf for York Adams Lancaster. It's a total mauling for the southern tier. Euro moved to the GFS. Crush job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Checking qpf from ma forum, Adams gets 1.2" to 1.8" with 2"+ amounts skirting southern York and Lancaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The LSV was hit really good that run and temp profiles look nice for a good ratio snow 12:1 average I would guess looking at model temp profiles on the maps. Would like to see a sounding of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Whoever wants PBP duties from the 12z GFS tomorrow to the 18z may have them. I'll be able to resume them for 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Whoever wants PBP duties from the 12z GFS tomorrow to the 18z may have them. I'll be able to resume them for 0z. Thanks NE for the contribution as always!!! I wish I could do it, but I have to work tomorrow, so I'll be lurking as per the usual and chime in when I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I do believe 12z tomorrow should have the system fully onshore/sampled...is that right? If so, we'll probably have a much better idea of what we're looking at. Hopefully the northern movement of 0z becomes a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The Euro may be trending towards the GFS slowly like it did during last year's blizzard... the opposite way from us that time. Overall great trends tonight. The GFS holding serve and even ticking a bit NW from its 18z run was huge. Lets hope the positive trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 PBZ already has issued Winter storm watches for their southern counties (Fayette and Greene in PA). Probably a reflection of what CTP's first take on watches will probably eventually be, with the first tier of counties across the central and up to MDT in the Sus Valley. 06z NAM precip zone has shifted to look more like the Euro..but in typical NAMed fashion it's pretty crazy and has an insane cutoff. In the Pit zone it goes from about nothing in the city to a foot in Fayette/Green Counties to 2'+ in Morgantown. Driving the 70 or so miles on I-99 from State College to Bedford goes from about zero in State College to 12-18" in Bedford. The differences in the modeling has not mattered for the NOVA/MD/DC region which gets destroyed no matter what.. but in our Pit and C-PA forums we're going to be sweating out a cutoff area somewhere. Gotta hope the GFS and CMC's overall insistence on involving most of PA in significant snow pays off. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA319 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016MDZ001-PAZ031-075-076-WVZ012-021-509>514-202030-/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0001.160122T1800Z-160124T0600Z/GARRETT-GREENE-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-RIDGES OF EASTERN MONONGALIA AND NORTHWESTERN PRESTON-PRESTON-EASTERN PRESTON-WESTERN TUCKER-EASTERN TUCKER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...WAYNESBURG...UNIONTOWN...CHAMPION...OHIOPYLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN...COOPERS ROCK...KINGWOOD...BRUCETON MILLS...TERRA ALTA...ROWLESBURG...HAZELTON...PARSONS...HENDRICKS...SAINT GEORGE...DAVIS...THOMAS...CANAAN VALLEY319 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHLATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHLATE SATURDAY NIGHT.* SNOW ACCUMULATION...6 OR MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWERELEVATIONS. IN THE RIDGES...AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT AREPOSSIBLE.* SNOW BEGINNING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTHWARD FRIDAYEVENING.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTOSATURDAY MORNING.* SNOW ENDING...SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ANDLATE SATURDAY EVENING IN THE RIDGES.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE LOWERELEVATIONS. IN THE RIDGES...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO30 MPH.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOWACCUMULATION. STRONG WIND MAY DRIFT SNOW ACROSS ROADS AND REDUCEVISIBILITY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW ACCUMULATION THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THELATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 WPC 5 Day QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The Euro made a positive step last night. It now has 10 inches at MDT and closer to 20 inches near the MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 6z GFS held serve with snow amounts for the LSV. It has near 20 inches at MDT & near 24 inches toward the MD line. The I-80 region gets near 10 inches this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The GFS and CMC still look good even for my area, but I just help but feel nervous as it's still an LSV and Mason-Dixon line special. Seeing this kind of storm give us northerners the middle finger in years past, I cant help but feel nervous about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 06z GFS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1201 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016 VALID 12Z SAT JAN 23 2016 - 12Z WED JAN 27 2016 MODEL CHOICES AND CONFIDENCE... CHOICES ARE LARGELY A RESULT OF THOSE SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE SHOWN THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE THE GREATEST SUPPORT FROM OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES. OF THESE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN THE STEADIEST DESPITE IRONING OUT IMPORTANT SYSTEM DETAILS...WITH THE GFS A CLOSE SECOND AND THE ECMWF THE WORST. IN FACT...THE ECMWF IS SO FAR FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS IN 4 DISTINCT AREAS BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT IT WAS NOT USED AT ALL IN THE BLENDING PROCESS. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 You guys seemed to have a lot of fun in here last night, after being up at 230 yesterday no way i could hang. Canderson snafu was a classic as well as the obit for Eskimo. Good chit. Digging last nights models, like the north movement. I think for those of us in the southern tier counties have a legit shot at double digits. I'm pretty pumped. Something i haven't seen talked of much is the wind, as i read it may be closer to the coast, can we anticipate greater winds associated with the storm because of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 00z Parallel GFS is a monster for many here. Does anyone have more information about the parallel version? Is it a test replacement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 WPC 5 Day QPF: p120i.gif WPC has me in the 2-5" to 3" range with 4" on the Mason dixon. Unreal if that were to verify. Their day 4-5 range also has a 1.96" max axis right over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I like where we are now. Reminds me of 96. the storm moved north and buried us iirc. anyway I just saw the euro and it has moved me into the 6 to 12 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 You guys seemed to have a lot of fun in here last night, after being up at 230 yesterday no way i could hang. Canderson snafu was a classic as well as the obit for Eskimo. Good chit. Digging last nights models, like the north movement. I think for those of us in the southern tier counties have a legit shot at double digits. I'm pretty pumped. Something i haven't seen talked of much is the wind, as i read it may be closer to the coast, can we anticipate greater winds associated with the storm because of this? CTP mentions sustained winds 25-35 in this mornings discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS continues its incredible continuity run after run....12z is critical for MDT north and west. 6z NAM caved in south and east with a huge cutoff. I get this feeling GFS will shift south (I hope not). Hopefully, confluence continues to be weaker on other models which should shift it north. Mid-Altantic is pretty much locked in, whereas forecaster up here and through NYC and Boston anything goes right now. Edit: Al Roker just called 12-18" E PA, through NYC....it has to happen now. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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