NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not sure what that little slice into NEPA is but it's quite annoying...probably leaves me as the only one complaining, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Unlike 18z, the storm stalls and drifts much closer to the coast instead of an ENE escape. CCB also backs in and gives us the goods later Saturday night-early Sunday morning. As I said in the Pittsburgh forum, check out the Canadian, NAM and now the GFS. After the low forms it hugs and moves up the coast. Trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 lol @ Eskimo Joe and everyone else ready to write it off 6 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Whats causing the stall? Hadn't seen that at all yet. my guess...less confluence up north give more time for a better stacking of the lows and slows it down. Hows my guess Mag or any redtaggers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 looks like ccb around york/adams...no. i'm liking this gang. Yeah, the 500 hPa low is way more wrapped up and farther west than 18z; it's a real nice look synoptically for mesoscale banding in central PA. Looks like we get into an extended period of 700 hPa frontogenetic forcing; areas to south and east see more forcing at the lower levels. Grrr...sucking us up near KUNV back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not sure what that little slice into NEPA is but it's quite annoying...probably leaves me as the only one complaining, lol. theres a 16" total right above it....consider it a smiley face.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 From 9 hours ago: E. Horst, MU WIC @MUweather My bet is we'll see somewhat of a shift back north. Water temps off East coast up to 10° above normal--storm should self-develop back to NW Man knows the weather patterns in this area better than just about anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Whats causing the stall? Hadn't seen that at all yet. The 500 hPa low closes off and the system occludes, reducing the warm air advection and positive differential vorticity advection to the east of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Guys I"m out....big day at work..and its gonna be hard to stay focus. this was fun.....i'm going to sleep on a good note. Night all. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 ggem next, hope it holds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 CMC, however, looks like it's going the wrong way. South of 12z easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 LNS 21z SREF mean at 10.5" and climbing at 12z on 1/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 CMC, however, looks like it's going the wrong way. South of 12z easily. That's to be expected. The 12z CMC was a huge outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 500 hPa low closes off and the system occludes, reducing the warm air advection and positive differential vorticity advection to the east of the storm.Did the low close off at about 60?Also that looks to be a pretty good stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 CMC is a big hit for the LSV. But the 0.25+ just hits a wall at 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 500 hPa low closes off and the system occludes, reducing the warm air advection and positive differential vorticity advection to the east of the storm.Interestng evolution. Meteorologically that makes a lot of sense given the setup, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Bob Chill in MA: Trash the gfs over the euro all you want. It has barely wavered for 12+ runs in general besides wobbles. If it busts to "the king" then let the trashing continue for years. But you can't deny the consistency. I've never seem the gfs do this Pre upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sure gonna make the Euro run interesting tonight!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 MDT, LSV 2.00-2.5+ on the CMC. Sharp cutoff north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 sounds like the canadian is also giving us the goods up to I80. NOW i'm off to bed... sweet dreams. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Did the low close off at about 60? Also that looks to be a pretty good stall. There's a closed 546 dam contour at 60 hrs, however, the surface low is still out of phase with the 500 hPa low. The system doesn't begin to occlude until around hour 96 when the surface low is within a couple of closed contours at 500 hPa. Even at that time, you can see the surface low becomes elongated to the northeast as some secondary development occurs south of the New England coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Now the big question stay up for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Now the big question stay up for the Euro? You know the euro is going to be south. Might as well go to bed happy. Euro trend north won't happen until roughly 48 hours prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 You know the euro is going to be south. Might as well go to bed happy. Euro trend north won't happen until roughly 48 hours prior. Your probably right. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The CMC puts a deform band from the border to MDT to LNS that's fairly bblcal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 There's a closed 546 dam contour at 60 hrs, however, the surface low is still out of phase with the 500 hPa low. The system doesn't begin to occlude until around hour 96 when the surface low is within a couple of closed contours at 500 hPa. Even at that time, you can see the surface low becomes elongated to the northeast as some secondary development occurs south of the New England coast. Thank you Heavy! Looks like models are heading north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Scared the Euro flips the bird to all of us, even after what's happened tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not sure what that little slice into NEPA is but it's quite annoying...probably leaves me as the only one complaining, lol. that is the model picking up on the snowshadow effect of the wyoming valley... downsloping wind off the poconos and endless mountains means sinking air/less precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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