CarlislePaWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Thank you MillvilleWx and to all the other Red Taggers and to those who have even dropped in from other forums to comment. Your insight is truly appreciated. It's been interesting to me this go 'round since Cumberland County has been in some of the heaviest accumulation maps for PA for quite a few runs. I think I was up to close to 40" on one run yesterday or last night. It's so tough emotionally to have Filet Mignon set down in front of you with all the wonderful aromas whiffing around, and then as you go to pick up your fork and knife the waiter suddenly picks up the plate and says, oops, wrong table...here's your hamburger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah but you suck who cares what you think? (Just kidding, great analysis - thanks!) Great "right" <-(thats for Katie) up. I'm glad you continue to post here after graduation and your move. Thanks guys. People jump way too much on the matter and really have to look at the whole picture. The one thing I can't look at is the ECM mean sounding to see where the setup is in regards to the snow growth regions. Even being further away from the QPF max, you can still get a nice banding structure set up away from the max due to the amount of lift on the northern quadrant of an intense ULL center. Despite the Euro going more southerly with the H5 low, the magnitude of the ULL is very great and will provide areas to the north a good amount of lift with colder temps at H7, leading to a better dendritic process. When you stack dendrites, that's when you maximize the snow amounts my friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's so tough emotionally to have Filet Mignon set down in front of you with all the wonderful aromas whiffing around, and then as you go to pick up your fork and knife the waiter suddenly picks up the plate and says, oops, wrong table...here's your hamburger! It's free either way.... no sense in complaining about free "food." Hell, free mcdonald's fries > no free food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Thanks guys. People jump way too much on the matter and really have to look at the whole picture. The one thing I can't look at is the ECM mean sounding to see where the setup is in regards to the snow growth regions. Even being further away from the QPF max, you can still get a nice banding structure set up away from the max due to the amount of lift on the northern quadrant of an intense ULL center. Despite the Euro going more southerly with the H5 low, the magnitude of the ULL is very great and will provide areas to the north a good amount of lift with colder temps at H7, leading to a better dendritic process. When you stack dendrites, that's when you maximize the snow amounts my friends. Great stuff Millville. thanks for keeping a hand on the wheel for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Consensus among responsible mets seems to be "we don't know yet, stay tuned." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ensembles are south, but not by a lot and they are north of the OP with a further expansion on the precip shield. The mean runs >1" line along Rt 30 on south with cold temps in the low to mid 20's. The northern end of the shield runs the >0.5" contour NE to SW from Wilkes-Barre across to Selinsgrove and then into SW PA. The control is still pretty bullish in the snow department with 20" tickling south-central PA and up to a foot just south of Wilkes-Barre. The bottom line is, the ensemble mean and control are still good hits and the cold temps aloft and near the surface will play a roll in ratios where as further south will be playing with warmer temps, but still looks good. History has shown us that these systems will fluctuate on the H5 depiction in the mid range (3-4 day) spread, only to adjust back north and have a further QPF expansion. This system is going to be some kind of juiced up and will be very difficult to garner a complete shutout, until you get north of I80 due to the level of confluence to the north. I still like areas of south of Rt 30 to get hit pretty good, but you guys to the north will still get in on the action. As far as the jackpot, that's more in the likelihood to be further south due to the confluence and the H5 representation. Still a good storm to watch unfold and way better than the craptastic start that we have had so far this winter. Just my 2 cents to the matter. It's possible the 12z Euro over-corrected from its previous run in better reflecting the true state of the atmosphere. It's also possible that the Euro, with its superior assimilation system, is starting to pick up the true structure of the shortwave soon to reach the coast of the western U.S. Also, the control run is essentially a watered-down version of the operational model so in the long run, it will have lower skill than the operational model; we can probably say that the operational model's solution is thus more likely (perhaps only slightly more likely) to occur than the control run's solution. I certainly wouldn't rule out a few inches of snow here, but I think there's a far greater probability that we see nothing than see 10+ inches. I agree that areas to our south and east are still very much in the game for a significant snow event. It will be interesting to see if tonight's guidance converges towards 12z Euro's solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GFS comes out at 6, correct? I guess we hope that holds. Any red taggers gonna stop in after to give us the skinny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Henry Margusity snow totals (from this morning FWIW): State College - 11.5" Altoona - 14" Harrisburg - 18" Pittsburgh - 10" Lancaster - 24" Philly - 22" Baltimore - 24" Washington - 24" (28-34" west of D.C.) New York City - 13" Allentown - 12" Medford, New Jersey - 12" mix Boston - 8" http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/major-storm-will-produce-heavy-snows-severe-weather-and-flooding/54892402 I had no idea he was still employed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I posted this in midvatlantic forum but thought I'd throw it in here too for the southern pa crew Bob Chill, on 19 Jan 2016 - 3:57 PM, said: Just got a chance to look at the euro ens. They look solid. The "tick" south on the mslp panels is mostly just getting rid of a bunch of lows that went over the tidewater or into the bay (which are not good placements for the corridor). Everything is tighter now and honestly looks pretty damn good. I wish I could post euro maps to give a picture to this but the op run did some weird things with precip. The knife edge cutoff was very suspect IMHO. When there is a sub 990 tucked right into VA beach you typically don't see such a gradient. Then the progression gets weird with multiple lows. The ULL pass is still pretty good even with the south shift. I'm no longer worried about the op solution and won't be until I see it happen again a bunch of times. Which I personally doubt. Psuhoffman: yea looking at the members the # of south members didn't actually go up. There have been about 10-15 out of the 52 each run. But we lost some of the crazy inland solutions that were mixing even up here. That moved the mean south a bit. Agree with funky look of op euro. I've remained mostly quiet because given my location people might just figure of course he thinks that but I was fairly confident we would see a south move day 3-4 and then a trend back north the last 48 hours. By that I don't mean bad for anyone here, when it's over with qpf Max over va and higher ratios over md and southern pa I think we all get crushed. Final axis of snow might resemble 83/96 or slightly south of those 2. This thing is going to be a juiced monster and qpf will adjust on the northern edge as usual. Euro has been digging too much lately also. We just saw it get schooled because of that. I think this whole forum is on a great spot for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The DGEX, yeah yeah, gives this entire subforum 1.5-2'+ snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I posted this in midvatlantic forum but thought I'd throw it in here too for the southern pa crew Bob Chill, on 19 Jan 2016 - 3:57 PM, said: Just got a chance to look at the euro ens. They look solid. The "tick" south on the mslp panels is mostly just getting rid of a bunch of lows that went over the tidewater or into the bay (which are not good placements for the corridor). Everything is tighter now and honestly looks pretty damn good. I wish I could post euro maps to give a picture to this but the op run did some weird things with precip. The knife edge cutoff was very suspect IMHO. When there is a sub 990 tucked right into VA beach you typically don't see such a gradient. Then the progression gets weird with multiple lows. The ULL pass is still pretty good even with the south shift. I'm no longer worried about the op solution and won't be until I see it happen again a bunch of times. Which I personally doubt. Psuhoffman: yea looking at the members the # of south members didn't actually go up. There have been about 10-15 out of the 52 each run. But we lost some of the crazy inland solutions that were mixing even up here. That moved the mean south a bit. Agree with funky look of op euro. I've remained mostly quiet because given my location people might just figure of course he thinks that but I was fairly confident we would see a south move day 3-4 and then a trend back north the last 48 hours. By that I don't mean bad for anyone here, when it's over with qpf Max over va and higher ratios over md and southern pa I think we all get crushed. Final axis of snow might resemble 83/96 or slightly south of those 2. This thing is going to be a juiced monster and qpf will adjust on the northern edge as usual. Euro has been digging too much lately also. We just saw it get schooled because of that. I think this whole forum is on a great spot for a change. Was actually thinking of posting this here. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Good stuff, i really like and trust Bob, he's good. You as well Hoffman, when you post in mid Atlantic i always read you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Good stuff, i really like and trust Bob, he's good. You as well Hoffman, when you post in mid Atlantic i always read you! Second that ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Good stuff, i really like and trust Bob, he's good. You as well Hoffman, when you post in mid Atlantic i always read you!Thanks. I'm nervous too but the euro is not perfect and so long as most guidance is showing a hit I wouldn't panic yet. Even a slight south shift can trend back and usually does at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z GFS very similar to 12z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Someone once said it always comes back North, but in the fire academy i learned there is never a never and never an always. So i take all that biz with a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks like more precip, but position is basically right on the mark with 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 81-84 0.25+ LSV. 0.1+ headed toward 80. 87 0.1+ up to AVP area. 0.25+ S of MDT and east along the state line to near Philly. 90 0.25+ for all LSV, 0.1+ everywhere else. 93 0.25+ pushing up 81. 96 Still hitting the southern areas 0.25+ and up to the eastern 1/3rd-quarter. Western regions still 0.1+. 99 Beginning to push away...0.25+ confined to 81E. 102 0.1+ still hanging around 81E. 105 Done besides SHSN/-SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Good Run Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Good hit for LSV. NW areas shafted. Oh boy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6-20 inches in 50 miles MDT has 11 while York has 15 and perry county 6 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Welcome to the Era of Tight Gradients. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Someone mentioned a secondary heavy band before Also map assuming 10-1 ratio Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yuck!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Very 96-ish or 83-ish Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0z runs are going to be crucial. I have a gut instinct it'll be a 2-6" storm for MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Question becomes, does this continue further south or correct a bit back north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 either the euro was a bad run or gfs is out to lunch. the next runs will be critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS was a good run. pretty consistent with the last run. Everything is going to come down to that H5 close off. When and where will decide who gets raked and who doesn't. You can see the NW side is still a tight gradient due to the confluence up north. That may be the area that takes the loss. I think State College will be the town right on the edge when all said and done. That I80 corridor. But you can see the general idea of where the best now is and how places like MDT are not gonna get shutout, but they will get snow in the 6-12" range with more on the southern and eastern side and less the further NW you go. Also, that extreme ludicrous band in southern MD actually robbed the region in the southern tier of more snow due the fact the lift in that area was so intense to get that, the subsidence around it was "brutal" to the standards of what was happening there compared to elsewhere. Overall, not a bad run. Btw, the 300mb jet depiction at 18z Saturday is a site to behold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 STEP BACK AWAY FROM THE BRIDGE RAILING! :-)) Gee one run and I have 5 pages to read. I would say this is a typical storm for us... We still got 24 hours of changes,I'm thinking there will be a few yet. Looking forward to see what the model trend is tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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